Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161705Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Strategic Aid Deliveries (Ramstein): (16:50Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) The outcomes of the latest Ramstein Contact Group meeting confirm previously unannounced military aid deliveries and support, sustaining the upward trajectory of UAF strategic resilience reported previously (Patriot/IRIS-T).
• Humanitarian Exchange: (16:43Z, STERNENKO, HIGH) A successful humanitarian operation resulted in the return of 60 Ukrainian citizens from Russian-controlled or occupied territories.
• RF Operational Focus Confirmation: (17:00Z, Воин DV, MEDIUM) RF sources issued an update on the operational situation for the "Vostok" Group of Forces, confirming sustained attention and offensive activity within the Southern and Eastern AORs, implicitly confirming the priority assigned to the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk axis.
• RF IO Activity (Huliaipole): (16:59Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH) RF informational resources launched a high-impact but false claim regarding the capture of NATO Generals and foreign personnel near Huliaipole, quickly refuted by UAF analysts. This IO campaign likely aims to mask critical movements or inflate tactical successes.
• Localized Combat (Pokrovsk Direction): (16:46Z, Сливочный каприз, LOW) Unconfirmed reports indicate localized fighting around Dobropillya and Rozy Lyuksemburg (Novoe Shakhovo), suggesting continued RF pressure on the flanks of the Pokrovsk salient.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture remains dominated by two synchronous RF lines of effort: fixing UAF reserves in the East while preparing for a potential operational thrust across the Gaychur River in the South.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk/Kharkiv):

• Pokrovsk: Continuous combat attrition is confirmed, with new, unconfirmed reports of fighting near Dobropillya/Rozy Lyuksemburg. This confirms the ongoing RF objective of fixing UAF forces in the sector following the destruction of the RF armored column reported in the previous sitrep.
• Kupyansk: UAF localized offensive operations (Khartiya) continue to interdict RF logistics and maintain pressure, aiming to relieve the broader Eastern front.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):

• Peschanoye Bridgehead: (CRITICAL STABILITY) Despite the Vostok Group update (17:00Z), no information confirms or denies heavy engineering movement or heavy armor transit across the Gaychur River. The continued focus of Vostok's AOR in RF reporting signals high intent for major action in this sector.
• Huliaipole: RF IO targeted this area with high-value capture claims, potentially attempting to draw UAF attention or validate the presence of elite/specialized units rumored to be supporting the Vostok Group.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Integrated Fixation and Deception: RF forces are integrating high-intensity informational operations (claims of capturing NATO generals) with persistent, low-level ground contact (Pokrovsk direction) to maintain a state of tactical ambiguity. This is a classic preparatory step designed to fix UAF reserves and paralyze decision-making ahead of a maneuver that utilizes mass (i.e., the Peschanoye breakthrough).

2. Logistics and Sustainment: The Vostok Group report (17:00Z) confirms this grouping remains the operational priority for the RF Southern Military District. Given the previous confirmed logistics surge (260th GRAU), the most dangerous period for heavy materiel deployment remains imminent.

3. Threat Synchronization (High): The timeline for a major RF maneuver remains correlated with the operational impact of the widespread anticipated GVP (power outage) measures scheduled for 17 DEC. RF intent is assessed as HIGH to leverage the darkness and infrastructure disruption to execute the MDCOA (Peschanoye).

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF activity focuses on strategic resilience and maintaining force posture:

• Counter-IO: Rapid refutation of NATO capture claims demonstrates strong C4ISR defensive reaction capability in the cognitive domain.
• Strategic Resupply: Confirmation of unannounced Ramstein aid packages ensures long-term operational viability despite immediate resource pressure.
• Force Generation/Sustainment: Unit Shadow continues active public funding solicitation for combat materiel (drones), indicating the crucial role of external volunteer support in maintaining tactical tempo and replacing losses.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is characterized by highly aggressive RF psychological operations (PSYOPs):

• High-Value Targeting Claims: The claim of capturing a NATO General and foreign mercenaries (16:59Z) is a severe escalation in rhetoric designed to manipulate domestic Russian perception of the war's justification and internationalize the conflict's framing for external audiences.
• Narrative Focus: RF state media is heavily promoting internal cohesion, military valor (documentaries, music videos), and counter-terrorism successes (Crimea SBU arrest), projecting an image of stable, successful domestic control despite battlefield attrition.
• Dissident Voices: Baseline intelligence suggests continued, high-level criticism within pro-RF circles regarding the poor treatment of soldiers and the political failure to deliver on military objectives (e.g., capture of Pokrovsk). This ideological friction creates a potential vulnerability for future UAF IO exploitation.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary focus remains mitigating the high-impact threat in the Southern Axis. The time remaining before the projected GVP power disruption on 17 DEC is critical.

MLCOA (Fixed Battles & Energy Exploitation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces maintain high pressure across the Eastern axis (Siversk, Pokrovsk) to hold UAF reserves in place. RF ISR flights and precision targeting against critical energy/C2 nodes will increase post-1800Z, coinciding with the approach of the scheduled widespread power restrictions.

MDCOA (Peschanoye Armor Push): (CRITICAL Confidence) RF Vostok Group utilizes the darkness and increased preparatory KAB/artillery fires (potentially leveraging 260th GRAU assets) to commit heavy armor across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye. Failure to interdict this crossing asset NLT 162200Z will result in a major operational flank risk to the UAF defense line in Zaporizhzhia.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The absence of confirmation regarding the Peschanoye maneuver is the singular most critical operational gap.