Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161635Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Strategic Air Defense Enhancement: (16:15Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) Germany confirmed the delivery of two Patriot air defense systems and the ninth IRIS-T system to Ukraine, significantly bolstering UAF strategic and operational air defense capabilities against the persistent RF aerial campaign.
• UAF Offensive Action (Kupyansk): (16:20Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) The UAF 2nd Corps NGU "Khartiya" launched a localized offensive operation near Kupyansk, specifically targeting RF logistics and seeking to blockade enemy forces in the area.
• RF Armored Column Destruction (Pokrovsk): (16:35Z, ДШВ ЗСУ, HIGH) UAF Airborne Forces (DShV) successfully engaged and destroyed an RF armored column in the critical Pokrovsk direction, mitigating immediate tactical risk to the UAF defense line.
• RF Light Mobility Countered (Vovchansk): (16:07Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) UAF forces successfully repelled an RF motorized assault using light vehicles (motorcycles/ATVs) near Vovchansk, confirming RF reliance on high-risk, low-footprint infiltration tactics in the Northern Kharkiv sector.
• Widespread Energy Restrictions Confirmed: (16:13Z, Укренерго, HIGH) State energy operator Ukrenergo confirmed that scheduled rolling blackouts (ГПВ) and industrial power restrictions will be applied across most regions of Ukraine starting December 17th, reflecting the severe impact of recent RF strikes on the grid.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational focus in the immediate reporting window has shifted to the Eastern Axis, characterized by successful UAF counter-mobility and localized offensive maneuvers, while the critical Southern threat remains static but unmitigated.

EASTERN AXIS (Kharkiv/Donetsk):

• Kupyansk: UAF forces (Khartiya) have taken the initiative, launching operations to interdict RF logistics and isolate forward RF positions. This proactive maneuver seeks to deny RF consolidation of gains previously reported in the sector.
• Pokrovsk: The destruction of an RF armored column by DShV confirms that RF forces are continuing offensive pressure, likely trying to exploit tactical weaknesses, but UAF tactical resilience remains effective in preventing major mechanized breakthroughs.
• Siversk: RF sources claim renewed "successes" (16:10Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM Confidence). This suggests that the stabilization reported in the previous daily summary is fragile and that RF fixing operations continue to degrade the UAF defensive perimeter through persistent attrition.
• Vovchansk (Kharkiv): RF forces are confirmed to be employing motorized (motorcycle/ATV) assault groups for rapid, dispersed infiltration, highlighting resource constraints in heavier vehicle usage. UAF counter-assault was successful.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):

• Peschanoye Bridgehead: (CRITICAL GAP) No new information regarding the status of the Gaychur River crossing or the confirmed RF bridgehead. The threat of heavy armor insertion (PIR 1) remains the most dangerous factor in this sector.
• Zaporizhzhia: RF continues to push an IO narrative regarding UAF attacks on the ZNPP (16:28Z), potentially seeking justification for future escalatory measures or attempting to fix UAF attention away from the Peschanoye maneuver.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Maneuver Adaptation and Fixation: RF forces continue to use asymmetric maneuver elements (motorized light infantry in Vovchansk) to maintain operational tempo where heavy armor risks are prohibitive. Concurrently, the operational focus in Siversk and Pokrovsk remains that of fixing UAF reserves in the East, which facilitates the critical potential breakthrough operation in the South (Peschanoye).

2. Threat Synchronization (Pending): The silence from the Southern Axis (Peschanoye) during this period (16:15Z - 16:35Z) is highly concerning and aligns with the MLCOA/MDCOA of the previous report: RF forces are likely using the current observation window to finalize preparations for heavy materiel movement under cover of relative darkness (post-1800Z), following the expected logistics surge correlated with the Veselo-Voznesenka closure.

3. Specialized Unit Activity: RF MoD confirmation of "Rubikon Centre" operations (16:33Z) highlights the use of specialized units for high-value targeting of UAF C2 and communication systems, confirming RF capability and intent to disrupt UAF network defense.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF demonstrated effective multi-domain defense and proactive offense:

• Defense in Depth: Successful destruction of two separate RF armored columns (Pokrovsk and the previously reported column near Huliaipole) confirms UAF capacity to detect, target, and destroy mechanized threats before they achieve operational depth.
• Proactive Maneuver: The localized offensive operation at Kupyansk aims to reclaim initiative and disrupt RF logistics, relieving pressure on the wider Eastern Front.
• Air Defense (Strategic Upgrade): The immediate operational integration of the 2x Patriot and 9th IRIS-T systems will be paramount to defending critical infrastructure and strategic reserve assembly areas, especially against KAB and ballistic missile threats.

Information environment / disinformation

RF Information Operations (IO) are actively attempting to utilize key military targets for propaganda:

• ZNPP False Flag Narrative: The claim by RF sources that UAF attacked the ZNPP is a dangerous escalation of rhetoric ("nuclear terror"). This narrative is designed to erode international support and possibly mask RF activities near the frontline (LOW Confidence regarding the veracity of the attack, HIGH confidence regarding the propaganda intent).
• Normalization of Conflict: RF MoD (16:33Z) and pro-RF war correspondents (16:10Z) continue to release reports focusing on minor tactical successes and specialized unit activity to project an image of operational control and momentum.
• Diplomatic Support Focus: While Germany delivered critical AD assets, the concomitant reporting on German hesitance regarding troop deployment (16:15Z) fuels RF narratives of Western political division and reluctance for deep involvement.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate next 6-12 hour period (1700Z - 2300Z) remains the highest risk window for RF heavy engineering or armored movement across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye, following the documented logistics preparation.

MLCOA (Fixed Battles & Energy Exploitation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will maintain high pressure in Siversk, Vovchansk, and Huliaipole to fix UAF reserves. RF will likely exploit the anticipated widespread GVP power outages (17 DEC) by increasing ISR flights and precision strikes against repair crews or temporarily unpowered C2 nodes.

MDCOA (Peschanoye Armor Push): (CRITICAL Confidence - Based on previous intelligence flow) Under the cover of darkness and expanded KAB strikes (Zaporizhzhia alert zone), RF commits pre-positioned heavy armor across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye, utilizing either heavy-lift drone supply or newly deployed temporary bridging assets. The aim is to exploit the UAF flank before the newly delivered Patriot/IRIS-T systems can be fully integrated and deployed to provide strategic defense in the region.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The lack of new reporting on the Southern Axis maneuver element is the most critical deficiency.