Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161615Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF UAV Adaptation Confirmed (Zaporizhzhia): UAF 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade (31st SMB) confirmed the successful downing of an RF UAV utilizing a design analogous to the Ukrainian "Vampire" heavy strike drone, operating south of Zaporizhzhia (15:40Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
• Logistics Indicator (Border Closure): RF sources reported the temporary closure of the "Veselo-Voznesenka" checkpoint on the Russia/DNR border to vehicular traffic (15:51Z, Mash na Donbasse, HIGH). This is assessed as an indicator of potential high-volume military traffic preparation, possibly relating to the 260th GRAU munitions surge.
• UAF Defensive Success (Southern Axis): The 46th Separate Air Assault Brigade (DShV) reported successfully repelling and destroying an RF armored column (15:48Z, 46th DShV, MEDIUM). This mitigates immediate tactical risk in the sector of engagement.
• Air Threat Recedes (Temporary): The air raid alarm was lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (15:44Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH), temporarily reducing the immediate KAB/missile threat following previous saturation warnings.
• UAF Force Generation Enhancement: The Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) supported Bill #13347 concerning the preparation of citizens for national resistance (15:46Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH), enhancing long-term resilience and mobilization readiness.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational tempo remains high on the Southern Axis, characterized by combined RF kinetic action designed to fix UAF forces prior to a heavy maneuver attempt at the Peschanoye bridgehead.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):

• Huliaipole: Confirmed RF focus remains on the "Assault on Huliaipole" (16:02Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH). This is highly correlated with the need to protect the flank of the Peschanoye bridgehead from UAF counter-mobility and reserve deployment. The successful repulsion of an armored column by the 46th DShV suggests UAF tactical resilience in this sector is strong, preventing a major RF mechanized breakthrough thus far.
• Peschanoye Bridgehead: Despite the temporary lifting of the air alert, the threat of immediate preparatory fires remains. The detection of sophisticated RF heavy-strike UAVs south of Zaporizhzhia confirms RF is deploying high-end, asymmetric tools to suppress UAF defenses and potentially target logistics or C2 nodes supporting counter-attacks against the river crossing.
• Logistics (Odesa): PIR 3 (Zatoka threat) remains valid, though no new immediate strikes were reported in this window. The focus shifts slightly to the internal RF logistics pathway (Veselo-Voznesenka).

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk): No significant kinetic changes reported in this window. UAF focus remains on maintaining security in the Pokrovsk direction while managing the persistent RF fixing operation around Huliaipole.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Threat Synchronization (UAV/Heavy Fire): RF forces are adapting quickly to UAF tactical advantages. The use of heavy-strike UAV analogues (Vampire/Baba Yaga equivalents) south of Zaporizhzhia (15:40Z) indicates an RF willingness to deploy sophisticated, asymmetric air assets to maintain fire superiority when manned or fixed-wing assets are risk-averse. This capability, combined with expanded KAB usage, forms the current preparatory fire matrix for the imminent ground offensive.

2. Logistics Prepositioning Indicator (URGENT): The temporary closure of the Veselo-Voznesenka border checkpoint (15:51Z) is assessed as a potential operational security measure preceding high-volume military movement. This strengthens the probability that the munitions from the 260th GRAU arsenal surge (PIR 2) are being directed toward the Southern (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia) axis to support the exploitation of the Peschanoye bridgehead.

• Analytical Judgment: If the closure is prolonged or involves rail interdiction, HIGH confidence is assigned to the Southern vector for PIR 2.

3. Tactical Attrition: RF troops continue to display high-risk, low-footprint tactical maneuvers, exemplified by the use of motorcycles for infiltration (15:44Z). This suggests severe limitations in armored reconnaissance capability, forcing RF to rely on dispersed, high-risk infantry units for local momentum.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces demonstrated effective multi-domain defense:

• Counter-UAV: The 31st SMB's success against the new RF heavy drone variant (15:40Z) provides critical intelligence on RF reverse-engineering/acquisition capabilities and confirms the effectiveness of dedicated UAF counter-UAV measures in the southern tactical zone.
• Tactical Defense: The 46th DShV (15:48Z) successfully degraded an RF armored element, preventing local penetration and stabilizing the defensive line around the Huliaipole fixing zone.
• National Resilience: Continued political action on national resistance (15:46Z) and the final confirmation of the Yanukovych verdict (16:02Z) signal internal political stability and long-term commitment to the war effort. International financial support for reparations is also advancing (15:51Z).

Information environment / disinformation

RF Information Operations (IO) are currently prioritizing narratives designed to erode cohesion and international support:

• Internal Cohesion Degradation: Pro-RF channels are pushing exaggerated claims of mass UAF desertion (e.g., "17,000 deserters," 15:39Z) to damage morale and create distrust in UAF command.
• Western Fatigue Narrative: RF continues to amplify claims, often citing Western polls (16:00Z) or former officials (Kneissl, 15:49Z), suggesting that EU/US populations are demanding a reduction in support for Kyiv, directly targeting the long-term sustainment pipeline.
• Victory Signaling: RF channels maintain high visibility reporting on the assault on Huliaipole (16:02Z) and showcase internal RF AD capabilities (15:42Z) to project an image of operational momentum and robust defense against UAF deep strikes.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary risk remains the synchronization of RF preparatory fires (KAB/UAV/GRAU) preceding a major maneuver element insertion across the Gaychur River (Peschanoye).

MLCOA (Materiel Prepositioning & Attrition): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will likely utilize the temporary reduction in the air alert (Zaporizhzhia) to move engineering and heavy bridging assets into forward assembly areas under the cover of darkness (post-1800Z). The closure of the Veselo-Voznesenka checkpoint suggests high-value munitions movement is imminent, potentially correlating with the expected 260th GRAU surge vector. UAV deep strikes against Odesa GLOCs will persist.

MDCOA (Flank Penetration Attempt): (MEDIUM Confidence) Under cover of synchronized heavy drone and KAB fires, RF Vostok Group attempts to break contact in the Huliaipole fixing battle and commit concentrated maneuver elements (mechanized infantry reinforced by heavy armor if crossing is secured) to penetrate the UAF rear area between Huliaipole and Orikhiv.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The confirmed RF logistical maneuver (Veselo-Voznesenka closure) provides a critical new data point for PIR 2.