Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161510Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• 15:00Z, Воин DV: Russian Federation (RF) forces confirmed the deployment and combat engagement of the 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (35th Army, Vostok Group) operating Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) against Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) strongpoints near Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH Confidence, RF confirmed OOB)
• 15:01Z, ТАСС: The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (Volker Türk) issued a public statement urging Ukrainian authorities to ensure the protection of Russian Prisoners of War (POWs) from torture and mistreatment. (HIGH Confidence, Confirmed statement, utilized for RF information operations)
• 15:04Z, Mash: Infrastructure repair, specifically road paving, was observed and confirmed in occupied Luhansk. This indicates RF prioritizing the logistical sustainability of rear-area Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs). (HIGH Confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational focus remains highly concentrated on the critical RF bridgehead across the Gaychur River near Peschanoye (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border), although new kinetic data confirms RF fixing efforts in the immediate vicinity of Huliaipole. No new data is available on the status of Siversk or the ongoing kinetic threat against Odesa logistics nodes since 14:47Z.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):

• Huliaipole: RF 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group) has confirmed active UAV strike operations in the Huliaipole sector. This confirmed unit identity solidifies the assessment that Vostok Group is executing a fixing operation to stabilize the immediate southern flank of the critical Peschanoye bridgehead (Gaychur River).
• Peschanoye: No change. The status of heavy armor movement across the Gaychur River remains the single most critical intelligence gap. Consolidation of the bridgehead utilizing heavy-lift hexacopters is assessed to be ongoing.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk):

• Chasiv Yar/Siversk/Pokrovsk: No change. UAF defensive gains near Chasiv Yar and stabilization near Siversk hold, but the operational balance is precarious awaiting the materialization of the RF 260th GRAU munitions surge.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Ground Maneuver (OOB Confirmation): The operational deployment of the RF 38th GMR BDE near Huliaipole confirms specific RF unit tasking for the Vostok Group. This unit is likely tasked with maintaining pressure on UAF positions (UAF 53rd Mech BDE) to prevent UAF forces from repositioning to counter the threat posed by the Gaychur River bridgehead (PIR 1).

2. Logistics and Sustainment: Confirmed road infrastructure repair in Luhansk signals RF efforts to improve rear-area sustainment lines, supporting long-term theater resilience and rapid movement of resources (potentially supporting the 260th GRAU outflow).

3. Intentions (MLCOA Confirmation): The confirmed fixing action at Huliaipole aligns perfectly with the Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) of RF consolidating the Peschanoye breach under the cover of preparatory fire (KAB/Artillery surge) before attempting heavy armor insertion.

Friendly activity (UAF)

(No new UAF kinetic or logistical activity confirmed in this reporting period.) UAF defensive posture remains critical in key sectors, particularly defending against the observed RF fixing operations intended to constrain maneuverability and reserve commitment.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) analysis suggests a deliberate RF counter-narrative effort following recent Western aid confirmations and unconfirmed reports of foreign involvement (NK troops).

• Human Rights/POW Narrative: TASS amplification of the UN High Commissioner's statement regarding POW treatment is a concentrated Information Operation (IO) designed to achieve two objectives: 1) Delegitimize UAF forces on human rights grounds, and 2) Shift global focus away from RF operational setbacks and OOB deficiencies (e.g., potential NK personnel presence).
• Western Resolve: RF media continued to propagate the narrative that Europe is "preparing for the continuation of the war," which implicitly acknowledges sustained Western commitment, although framed as a negative for RF domestic consumption.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The tactical environment is stable but critically poised. Decision points rely entirely on the resolution of critical intelligence gaps concerning RF heavy asset deployment.

MLCOA (Consolidation and Fixing): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces, specifically the Vostok Group, will maximize current fixing efforts (Huliaipole, KAB strikes into Zaporizhzhia) to cover the ongoing consolidation of the Peschanoye bridgehead. RF will prioritize confirming the security of the river crossing before committing heavy armor. The 260th GRAU munitions surge is expected to begin manifesting in theater within the next 12 hours, providing overwhelming fire support to either the Eastern or Southern axes.

MDCOA (Breakthrough Confirmation): (MEDIUM Confidence) The most dangerous scenario remains the successful transit of RF heavy armor (MBTs/IFVs) across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye. If confirmed, the UAF forces in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk operational rear would be immediately threatened, necessitating rapid re-evaluation of current GLOC security and troop dispositions.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The confirmation of the RF 38th GMR BDE unit identity near Huliaipole reinforces the urgency of resolving the core operational intelligence gaps (PIRs).