Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T13:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (13:03Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) The Netherlands committed €250 million specifically for ammunition supply dedicated to Ukrainian F-16 fighter aircraft. This significantly enhances the forthcoming F-16 capability and sustainment timeline.
• (13:01Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Russian Urals crude oil prices dropped to $40 per barrel, representing the lowest price point recorded since the start of the full-scale invasion (BBG source). This exacerbates long-term RF economic strain.
• (12:55Z, Colonelcassad/MoD, MEDIUM) Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) released synchronized video footage reportedly showing the Project 636.3 'Varshavyanka' submarine intact at the Novorossiysk Naval Base. This strongly rebuts the recent UAF claim of destruction.
• (13:04Z, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH) Visual confirmation of the aftermath of a significant kinetic strike in Druzhkivka (Donetsk Oblast), indicating that the RF logistics interdiction campaign is targeting nodes adjacent to or supporting the Kostiantynivka hub.
• (12:41Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM) Swedish reports regarding RF military personnel being observed aboard civilian "shadow fleet" vessels are corroborated, reinforcing the assessment of RF dual-use maritime operations (previously reported 12:24Z).

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational focus remains on RF attempts at logistical strangulation in the East and maintaining high pressure across critical axes, shifting the war toward a strategy of exhaustion (ref. Zaluzhnyi, 10:04Z).

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk):

• Kostiantynivka/Druzhkivka: Following the confirmed strike on the Kostiantynivka rail hub (PDR context), the kinetic strike in Druzhkivka (13:04Z) confirms the RF focus on degrading the entire logistics network supporting UAF forces in the Pokrovsk/Siversk operational areas. Druzhkivka is a key staging area immediately northeast of Kostiantynivka.
• Kupyansk/Siversk: The situation remains tactically complex in Kupyansk and rapidly deteriorating in Siversk (Previous Sitrep/PDR). RF-aligned forces claim successful night operations in the Kostiantynivka direction (12:59Z), suggesting continued high-intensity combat to maintain pressure on the UAF defensive line near Pokrovsk.

Southern Axis (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia):

• Peschanoye Breach: (NO CHANGE) The critical intelligence gap regarding the depth and composition of the RF bridgehead across the Gaychur River remains unaddressed. This threat vector continues to endanger the rear of the Eastern Grouping.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Sustainment/Logistics Interdiction)

1. RF Strategic Intent: Analysis of senior UAF commentary suggests RF has shifted strategy from decisive kinetic defeat to strategic exhaustion (Zaluzhnyi, 10:04Z). This is directly supported by the sustained, high-volume logistics targeting campaign (Zatoka, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka) and the confirmed scaling of domestic weapons production.
2. Logistics Targeting Vector: The confirmed strike in Druzhkivka reinforces the assessment that the RF Main Effort is currently directed at rendering the Donetsk GLOCs non-operational. This objective supports both the Pokrovsk-Siversk ground pressure and potential exploitation of the Peschanoye breach.
3. Economic Resilience (Assessment Change): The reported fall of Urals crude to $40/barrel (13:01Z) represents a significant Negative Feedback Loop for RF war financing, likely accelerating the need to increase production capacity of cheaper systems (UAVs/MRLS) to compensate for shrinking hard currency reserves.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense & Sustainment: The committed aid package of €250M for F-16 ammunition (13:03Z) is a crucial development, ensuring the planned F-16 deployment will be supported by a robust munitions pipeline, alleviating immediate sustainment concerns for the transition phase.
• Strategic Financial Accountability: UAF diplomatic activity successfully convened key partners (Netherlands, Moldova, CoE) to advance the creation of the International Compensation Commission (ICC) (12:51Z) and discuss Reparations Loans (12:53Z). This is a vital diplomatic victory aimed at securing long-term reconstruction financing.
• High Command Narrative: Gen. Zaluzhnyi’s public commentary reaffirms UAF strategic understanding of the long war and maintains high morale focus (12/06Z, 12/12Z).

Information environment / disinformation

1. Naval Strike Disinformation (Tactical Success for RF): RF authorities have successfully leveraged synchronized video footage from official sources (MoD, Colonelcassad, ZVEZDANEWS) to visually counter UAF claims regarding the destruction of the 'Varshavyanka' submarine. (Confidence: HIGH that RF has effectively managed the tactical IO crisis). The tactical credibility of the UAF deep strike claim is significantly degraded without immediate, compelling counter-evidence.
2. Western Strength Propaganda: RF media (WarGonzo, 13:03Z) is actively exploiting and amplifying comments attributed to the head of the UK Armed Forces regarding Russia's "overwhelming power." This serves to demoralize Western populations and reinforce the narrative of inevitable RF victory to domestic audiences.
3. Political Intent: RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov's statement of "no compromise" on occupied territories (12:45Z) confirms that negotiation is not a viable short-term resolution and kinetic operations will remain the MLCOA for territorial change.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Weather: No impact observed.

MLCOA (Logistics Degradation and Fixed Front Assault): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue their high-volume kinetic interdiction campaign against UAF GLOCs in the Donetsk region, specifically targeting the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka–Pokrovsk corridor. Simultaneously, RF ground forces will maintain extreme pressure in the Siversk and Kupyansk sectors to prevent UAF defensive redeployment, aiming for tactical breakthroughs supported by the impending 260th GRAU munitions surge (PDR context).

MDCOA (Exploitation of Gap): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If UAF reserves are fixed by the logistics disruption, RF forces may launch a significant armored effort to exploit the Peschanoye bridgehead across the Gaychur River (P2 Gap), pushing north/westward to threaten the rear supply lines of the Pokrovsk front.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements