Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T12:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (12:31Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Germany delivered two promised Patriot air defense systems and the ninth IRIS-T system, significantly boosting Ukraine's strategic Air Defense capabilities.
• (12:11Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) successfully utilized FP-2 strike UAVs during the night of December 16th to destroy a Russian Federation (RF) Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).
• (12:24Z, Старше Эдды, MEDIUM) RF military blogger reports the operational situation in the Kupyansk sector is "complex" (сложная), suggesting active, possibly disadvantageous, combat engagement for RF forces there.
• (12:12Z-12:24Z, TASS/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, IO FOCUS) Intense Information Warfare (IO) clash regarding the status of a Russian Project 636.3 "Varshavyanka" (Kilo-class) submarine, with UAF claiming strike confirmation via satellite imagery and RF publishing visual counter-evidence of the vessel intact at Novorossiysk. (STATUS: UNCONFIRMED DESTRUCTION)
• (12:13Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Ukrainian Centre for Countering Disinformation (CPD) confirms RF is actively scaling up domestic manufacturing of critical weapons systems (tanks, missiles, drones), reinforcing the long-term sustainment threat identified yesterday by 260th GRAU activity.
• (12:24Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM) Sweden reports documenting RF military personnel aboard commercial "shadow fleet" vessels, indicating potential militarization or intelligence use of ostensibly civilian maritime infrastructure.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture remains dominated by the RF logistics interdiction campaign and the dual-axis ground pressure in the East (Pokrovsk, Siversk) and the South (Peschanoye breach).

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk):

• Kupyansk: Russian sources now report the situation is "complex," indicating heavy fighting and operational difficulty for the advancing RF forces. This area should be assessed as an emerging friction point alongside the already deteriorating Siversk sector (PDR context).
• Siversk/Pokrovsk: Status remains critical (PDR context: rapid deterioration in Siversk, CQC in Pokrovsk). The arrival of high-value AD systems (Patriot/IRIS-T) is timely, as the RF deep strike campaign against GLOCs continues to threaten resupply routes for these critical defense lines (Kostiantynivka strike, PDR context).

Southern Axis (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia):

• Peschanoye Breach: The RF bridgehead across the Gaychur River (PDR context) remains the primary maneuver threat, potentially bypassing Zaporizhzhia defenses and threatening the rear of the Eastern grouping. Current reporting provides no update on the depth of the RF advance (P3 Gap remains).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Ground Maneuver, Logistics Interdiction)

1. Sustained Warfighting Capacity: Intelligence confirms RF is scaling up domestic production of tanks, missiles, and UAVs (РБК-Україна, 12:13Z). This supports the previous assessment derived from the critical activity spike at the 260th GRAU arsenal (PDR score 30.78) and suggests RF Command intends a sustained high-intensity kinetic campaign in Q1 2026.
2. Information Warfare (Naval Focus): A major IO conflict is ongoing regarding the destruction of a Black Sea Fleet submarine. UAF claims imagery confirmation; RF MoD provides visual counter-evidence.
   • Assessment: The high volume and synchronization of RF denials (MoD, ZVEZDANEWS, Два майора) suggest UAF claims are operationally embarrassing or potentially credible, requiring extensive damage control.
3. Hybrid Operations: Reports of RF military personnel on "shadow fleet" vessels (Оперативний ЗСУ, 12:24Z) indicate a low-signature, dual-use approach to maritime domain operations, possibly for reconnaissance or covert logistics in international waters, particularly the Baltic/North Sea approaches.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Counter-Fire/Maneuver: SSO executed a successful night strike using FP-2 UAVs, destroying an RF MLRS (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 12:11Z). This demonstrates effective localized precision targeting, supporting the need for tactical interdiction of high-value enemy assets in forward areas.
• Strategic Capability Increase: The delivery of two Patriot and one IRIS-T system (РБК-Україна, 12:31Z) is a crucial uplift. These assets must be rapidly deployed to defend strategic depth targets, specifically the compromised logistics nodes (Zatoka, Kostiantynivka) and critical command/control infrastructure.
• Information Environment (Domestic): The Zaporizhzhia OVMA issued public safety warnings for the upcoming holiday period (12:30Z), acknowledging the persistent threat of kinetic strikes against civilian infrastructure and population centers.

Information environment / disinformation

The primary focus is the Black Sea Submarine Disinformation Campaign.

• UAF Narrative: Successful deep strike (likely using Naval Drones/Missiles) against a strategic asset, supported by satellite imagery (UNCONFIRMED: ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 12:24Z).
• RF Narrative: Complete denial, with official sources disseminating visual media showing a "Varshavyanka" class submarine intact at the Novorossiysk Naval Base (ТАСС, Два майора, 12:12Z - 12:19Z).
• Analysis: The immediate RF response suggests a pre-planned crisis communication strategy. If the UAF satellite imagery is confirmed, this would mark a significant success, undermining RF operational sanctuary in the Black Sea. If the RF visual evidence is accurate and recent, the UAF claim serves as an aggressive Psychological Operation (PsyOp).
• D-S Support: Belief regarding "Information Warfare: Propaganda Effort by Russia" scores 0.184, reflecting the extensive denial campaign observed.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Weather: No new weather data is available; operations continue under prevailing winter conditions (PDR context).

MLCOA (Exploitation and Consolidation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue attempts to consolidate the Peschanoye bridgehead while maintaining intense, high-volume fire directed from the 260th GRAU throughput against the Pokrovsk-Siversk front line. The immediate tactical objective will be to suppress UAF defensive fire and prevent the deployment of UAF reserves, leveraging the logistics strain caused by the Zatoka/Kostiantynivka strikes.

MDCOA (Air/Missile Surge): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Given the confirmed arrival of the new Patriot/IRIS-T systems, RF may execute a pre-emptive, high-density missile and drone strike package within the next 6-12 hours, targeting the anticipated deployment locations or transit routes of the new AD assets, or executing the expected theatre-wide artillery saturation identified in the PDR NLT 1200Z today.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements