Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 2025-12-16 11:05Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (11:00Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM-HIGH) RF Ministry of Defence officially confirmed the capture/liberation of Novoplatonovka in the Kharkiv region. This corroborates previous non-official claims and confirms the RF Zapad Group's ability to consolidate localized territorial gains on the South Slobozhansky axis.
• (10:37Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) New enemy UAV groups detected operating over Southern Odesa Oblast, specifically near Tatarbunary, vectoring toward Artsyz. This confirms the persistence of the deep logistical interdiction threat beyond the previously targeted Zatoka/Chornomorsk areas, targeting alternative GLOCs.
• (10:36Z, Multiple Sources, HIGH) Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov explicitly rejected the idea of a Christmas ceasefire/truce, stating RF seeks "peace, not a truce," indicating intent to maintain high kinetic operational tempo throughout the holiday period.
• (10:45Z, RF MFA/STERNENKO, HIGH) RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated uncompromising demands for control over all of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts, reinforcing the strategic objective of the current offensive operations.
• (11:00Z, TASS/MoD RF, LOW) RF Center Group claimed the discovery and capture of a former UAV C2 point of "Ptakhy Madyara" (elite UAF drone unit) in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). If corroborated, this suggests UAF operational units are either withdrawing or being pushed out of key command centers in the city's immediate approaches.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Capabilities & Intentions: RF actions and explicit political statements over the last two hours confirm intent to maintain a maximum kinetic effort.

1. Sustained Operational Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The explicit rejection of a Christmas truce by Peskov removes any ambiguity regarding RF intentions for the remainder of December. RF will continue high-volume artillery saturation (260th GRAU output remains critical) and combined maneuver assaults in key sectors.
2. Confirmed Territorial Gain (Kharkiv): The confirmation of Novoplatonovka capture means RF is successfully translating tactical pressure into consolidated territory, forcing UAF to divert attention and material to the North.
3. Multi-Vector Deep Interdiction: The shift of UAV vector to Artsyz confirms the RF adaptive targeting strategy. If the primary rail hub (Zatoka/Chornomorsk) is heavily defended, RF is targeting secondary supply chokepoints further inland, enhancing the logistics strangulation MLCOA.

Threat Assessment:

• Maneuver (CRITICAL): The lack of recent updates on the Dnipropetrovsk breach is an intelligence gap, but the previous assessment of RF exploitation remains the primary operational threat. The RF's demonstrated capacity to consolidate gains (Novoplatonovka) implies they will attempt to consolidate the Peschanoye bridgehead as well.
• Information Environment: The coordinated RF IO around the school incident in Moscow, emphasizing internal security and nationalism, may signal a future shift in manpower mobilization narratives, though its immediate tactical impact is low.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Operational Readiness: The continued high alert status (as signaled by the Azov Artillery Cup cancellation in the previous report) is strategically justified by the explicit RF rejection of a truce. UAF forces should expect no respite.
• Judicial Action: UAF Prosecutor General's Office announced the conviction of an RF national in absentia for war crimes in the Kharkiv region, demonstrating continued commitment to documentation and justice, countering RF IO narratives.
• Diplomatic Momentum: Discussions regarding "platinum" security guarantees (US) and the planned deployment/location of support forces ("Coalition of the Resolute") signal continued high-level support and progress toward long-term deterrence strategies.
• Casualty Report: Loss of armor confirmed in Kupyansk (475th OShP), necessitating resource replacement.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Intent (Territorial & Kinetic): RF statements solidify the narrative that the only path to peace, as defined by Moscow, is complete Ukrainian capitulation and territorial concession. This is intended to diminish international diplomatic efforts (like the creation of the compensation commission, addressed by Zelenskyy at 10:57Z) and solidify internal Russian resolve.
• Domestic IO Crisis Management: The ongoing, high-volume social media debate within Russia concerning the Odintsovo school incident, migrant policy, and the subsequent calls for media censorship (Fighterbomber, Parker, Rybar) demonstrates active internal security stress and an immediate need for RF authorities to control the domestic narrative flow, distracting from external military reporting.
• UAF Morale IO: Zelenskyy's stated RF casualty figures (30,000/month) and the Ministry for Veterans Affairs campaign (10:41Z) are coordinated efforts to maintain domestic morale and project UAF resilience.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continuation of Coordinated Strangulation and Dnipropetrovsk Penetration (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Given the explicit rejection of any ceasefire, RF forces will maximize operational pressure before the end of the calendar year. The Vostok Group will likely conduct a probing attack or deep reconnaissance-in-force toward the N08 highway junction, west of the Gaychur River, to determine UAF reserve commitment. Simultaneously, sustained, high-volume artillery fire, sourced from the 260th GRAU throughput, will be directed at UAF concentration areas around Siversk and the Pokrovsk logistical rear. Drone interdiction targeting will continue, focused now on secondary GLOCs (e.g., Artsyz/Pyatikhatki).

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Siversk Collapse enabling Frontal Breakthrough (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If the Dnipropetrovsk breach successfully draws significant UAF heavy reserves south, RF forces executing the assault on the deteriorating Siversk sector (54th Brigade AO) could achieve a localized breakthrough, forcing a general retreat from the current Northern Donetsk lines. This would rapidly open the operational space toward Kostiantynivka from the northeast, significantly compounding the pressure from the Pokrovsk axis.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements