Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 2025-12-16 10:35Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (10:23Z, MoD Russia/Kotsnews, MEDIUM) RF Zapad Group claims the liberation/capture of Novoplatonovka in Kharkiv region. This, combined with clashes near Prylipka and Obukhivka (GSZSU, 10:29Z), indicates successful localized RF advance on the South Slobozhansky axis.
• (10:29Z, GSZSU, HIGH) RF aviation conducted strikes targeting military/civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts, including Ryzhivka (Sumy), Havrylivka (Dnipropetrovsk), and Huliaipole/Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia), confirming direct air support for the new Dnipropetrovsk breach vector.
• (10:09Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) New groups of Shahed-type UAVs were detected approaching Odesa Oblast critical infrastructure from the Black Sea, specifically targeting the Zatoka area and later Chornomorsk, confirming sustained RF intent to interdict Southern logistics following yesterday’s kinetic strike.
• (10:30Z, GSZSU, HIGH) Intense ground clashes persist in critical sectors identified yesterday, specifically near Siversk (Sloviansk direction) and within the urban perimeter of Pokrovsk and its approaches (Myrnohrad, Rodynske), validating the continuing operational pressure on the Donetsk grouping.
• (16:48Z, 12th Azov Brigade, HIGH) The Azov Artillery Cup was canceled due to the heightened security situation, suggesting UAF forces (including NGU components) are either deployed for internal security missions or are placing all personnel on high alert status, likely relating to the Dnipropetrovsk breach.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Course of Action (Coordinating Axes): RF activity confirms the execution of the Coordinated Strangulation MLCOA identified in the previous daily report.

1. Exploitation of Dnipropetrovsk Breach: Confirmed RF air support for forces operating near the administrative boundary (Havrylivka strike). The RF objective is now to deepen the incursion and force the commitment of UAF operational reserves away from Pokrovsk and Siversk.
2. Sustained Kinetic Interdiction (Deep Rear): UAV groups targeting the Odesa region confirm continued focus on severing rail and road supply lines into the Southern theater. Given the high GRAU score (30.78, confirmed yesterday), this logistics strangulation is intended to precede or accompany the major artillery saturation event.
3. Active Gains in Kharkiv: The claimed capture of Novoplatonovka suggests RF is not merely fixing UAF forces in the North but attempting incremental territorial gains, likely aiming to enhance logistics safety for the Kupyansk grouping.

Threat Assessment:

• Logistics (CRITICAL): The continued air/UAV targeting of Odesa infrastructure, combined with the successful strikes on rail hubs, represents the highest near-term operational threat to UAF sustainment.
• Maneuver (CRITICAL): The Vostok Group's advance toward Havrylivka, if unchecked, provides RF the ability to flank the entire Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia defensive lines. UAF reserves must prioritize the containment of the Peschanoye bridgehead.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Frontline Defense: UAF forces, including the GSZSU reporting, show successful defense against multiple assaults, particularly repelling one RF assault on the Northern border (Kursk/Sumy direction). Defense near Siversk remains active, indicating the line has not yet collapsed despite previous reports of deterioration.
• Interdiction: The 80th DShV (Galician Brigade) reported kinetic success against RF C2 and transport assets, demonstrating continued UAF ability to disrupt tactical enemy movements.
• Force Readiness/Morale: The focus of the National Guard's "Lubart" formations on high-value recruitment drives and robust veteran reintegration programs suggests a long-term strategy for manpower sustainment. The cancellation of the "Azov Artillery Cup" signals an elevated state of readiness in the rear areas.
• Diplomacy: President Zelensky's meeting with Moldovan President Sandu in The Hague focuses on bilateral security cooperation and sustained political pressure on Russia, countering RF IO narratives of regional isolation.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Internal Instability (High Visibility): A fatal school security incident in the Moscow region received immediate, high-volume coverage by state media (TASS) and subsequent calls for content censorship by the Russian Human Rights Council (SPCH). This suggests heightened sensitivity and rapid information control efforts regarding domestic crises, especially involving youth or security vulnerabilities, contrasting with previous incidents.
• RF Propaganda Focus: Kadyrov’s public relations piece highlighting social welfare underscores the RF attempt to project effective governance and internal stability despite the domestic security issues.
• UAF Political Development: The proposal to create a working group led by MP Korniyenko to draft election law under martial law conditions signals active internal political planning, which could be framed by RF IO as a destabilizing factor or a sign of uncertain governance.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF Deepening the Dnipropetrovsk Penetration (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will continue to leverage air superiority and the momentum from the Peschanoye seizure, targeting key settlements like Havrylivka (already struck) and pushing toward the N08 highway to fix UAF defenses. Simultaneously, RF will maintain heavy, high-volume artillery preparation (260th GRAU output) across the Pokrovsk and Siversk axes, timed to coincide with a major infantry assault within the next 24-48 hours. Continued targeted drone strikes on Odesa infrastructure are certain.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Siversk Collapse and Operational Envelopment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If UAF reserves are committed to neutralizing the Dnipropetrovsk breach, RF forces could seize the opportunity to execute a successful breakthrough at the deteriorating Siversk line. A collapse there would allow RF to pivot south towards Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka, creating the potential for an operational-level encirclement of the UAF Donetsk grouping, forcing a catastrophic general withdrawal.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements