Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 160935Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• CRITICAL: RF Penetration into Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia): UAF tactical sources confirm RF forces have advanced and achieved localized penetration into the city limits of Huliaipole (09:35Z, STERNENKO, HIGH). This indicates a significant and immediate tactical deterioration in the Zaporizhzhia sector, separate from the pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• KAB Campaign Expands to Sumy: UAF Air Force confirms the launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Sumy Oblast (09:07Z, Air Force, HIGH). This signals a geographical expansion of the RF high-volume deep strike strategy, further stressing UAF Air Defense (AD) assets in the North.
• Widespread Energy System Collapse: Nighttime RF strikes targeted energy facilities across multiple oblasts. This resulted in the complete power disruption for 427,000 subscribers in Donetsk Oblast (09:29Z, Minenergy, HIGH) and necessitated emergency blackouts in Kharkiv Oblast (09:16Z, Kharkivoblenergo, HIGH).
• RF Claimed Territorial Gain (Kharkiv): RF MoD claims the liberation of the settlement Novoplatonovka in Kharkiv Oblast (09:24Z, TASS/MoD, HIGH). If confirmed by UAF, this signifies slow, localized RF advance in the northern sector.
• RF Hardens Maximalist Diplomatic Stance: RF Foreign Ministry officials publicly declared Russia will never make concessions regarding the status of Donbas, "Novorossiya," and Crimea, framing these as fundamental constitutional elements (09:06Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
• UNCONFIRMED Deep Strike Success: UAF sources reported damage to a Russian "Varshavyanka" project submarine in Novorossiysk Bay following a drone attack, supported by alleged satellite imagery (09:25Z, Operativny ZSU, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Operations and Assets: The most immediate operational impact is the successful degradation of UAF energy infrastructure in key operational zones (Donetsk, Kharkiv) via synchronized night strikes (09:23Z). This is not just a strategic strike, but a direct operational constraint on UAF C2, ISR relay, and logistics movement within the combat zone. The expansion of the KAB saturation envelope to Sumy Oblast (09:07Z) confirms the RF strategy of maximizing kinetic pressure across all major border regions to dilute UAF AD resources.

Maneuver & Intent: RF intent is clearly to achieve tactical breakthrough by utilizing widespread suppression (KAB/Energy strikes) coordinated with simultaneous ground attacks across multiple axes. The confirmed penetration into Huliaipole (09:35Z) indicates the RF Vostok Group is achieving deeper penetration capacity than previously assessed, now engaging in urban combat in a key center of gravity on the Zaporizhzhia axis. The capture of Novoplatonovka (09:24Z) supports the strategy of pushing UAF back along the international border in the North, fixing UAF reserves.

Hybrid Operations / Force Projection: RF intelligence agencies are actively engaged in framing internal security incidents (Odintsovo school attack, Lipetsk pipeline plot) as evidence of Ukrainian terrorism and sabotage directed by UAF intelligence (09:32Z). This narrative is designed to justify intensified security crackdowns and maintain domestic support for the conflict.

Threat Assessment: The overall threat level remains CRITICAL. The combined effect of widespread energy infrastructure failure in Donetsk (impacting C2) and the simultaneous confirmed tactical penetration into Huliaipole (requiring immediate reserve commitment) poses the most significant threat since the reporting period began.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical & Operational Leadership: The Commander-in-Chief, General Syrskyi, visited the "front edge" (передній край) (09:25Z). This high-profile visit aims to maintain operational oversight, morale, and assurance of command control during a period of intense kinetic pressure and infrastructure failure.

Infrastructure Response: UAF energy operators (Ukrenergo, Kharkivoblenergo) moved rapidly to implement emergency and rolling blackout schedules to manage system load (09:16Z, 09:20Z), demonstrating effective internal contingency planning, despite the severity of the damage reported in Donetsk.

Deep Strike Projection: The reported drone strike on a submarine in Novorossiysk Bay (09:25Z, UNCONFIRMED) demonstrates the continued UAF capability and intent to target high-value RF strategic assets hundreds of kilometers behind the FEBA, forcing RF defensive measures far from the main theater.

Information environment / disinformation

1. RF Maximalist Stance: The official MFA declaration that concessions on Crimea, Donbas, and "Novorossiya" are impossible (09:06Z) solidifies the RF political objective as total conquest of these territories. This serves to justify continuing military action indefinitely and preempts any meaningful diplomatic pathway.
2. Disinformation Campaigns: Foreign Minister Lavrov’s claim that the US promised to block Ukraine's NATO membership and facilitate territorial transfer (09:30Z) is a blatant piece of strategic disinformation aimed at undermining Ukrainian confidence in Western security guarantees and projecting a narrative of US appeasement to the domestic Russian audience.
3. Domestic Security IO: The FSB's quick announcement regarding the "UAF-directed" Lipetsk pipeline plot (09:32Z) is used to link domestic instability (the ongoing Moscow school attack investigation) to external Ukrainian threat vectors, justifying internal state security centralization.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Exploitation of Tactical Success and Infrastructure Collapse): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will immediately seek to reinforce and expand the penetration into Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia axis). Concurrently, RF kinetic forces will increase pressure on the weakened Donetsk energy/logistical nodes, aiming to fully capitalize on the widespread power outages to degrade UAF defensive fires and logistics flow. The KAB campaign will continue, likely focusing on disrupting UAF reserve movement in response to the Huliaipole breach.

MDCOA (FEBA Collapse and Operational Bypass): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If UAF forces are compelled to commit the majority of their local reserves to sealing the critical Huliaipole breach, RF may use the established Dnipropetrovsk bridgehead (Peschanoye) to launch a heavier mechanized force maneuver, bypassing the main Zaporizhzhia defensive line and threatening the operational rear of UAF forces in Pokrovsk from the South.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate focus must shift to assessing the depth of the new Huliaipole penetration and the systemic impact of the energy strikes.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. J2/OC South (IMMEDIATE): Divert maximum ISR capacity (UAV, tactical SIGINT) immediately to Huliaipole (P1) to determine the composition (dismounted vs. mechanized) and depth of the RF penetration. If heavy armor is confirmed in the city, UAF CINC must release tactical reserves immediately to stabilize the urban defense line.
2. J4/J6 (IMMEDIATE): Assume total power grid instability in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Immediately deploy redundant, mobile, and generator-backed C2 and communications nodes (J6), and activate contingency logistics plans (J4) relying solely on road networks and pre-positioned, distributed supply dumps (P2).
3. J3/AD: Given the KAB expansion to Sumy (09:07Z), immediately re-evaluate the AD allocation matrix for key infrastructure and high-value Western systems (e.g., Dita SPG) to ensure sufficient coverage in the newly threatened northern sector.
4. J7/High Command IO: Issue a controlled, measured response to Lavrov's disinformation (09:30Z), reaffirming the absolute necessity of NATO membership guarantees and the inviolability of UAF sovereign territory, countering RF narratives of Western abandonment.