Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 160930Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Sustained KAB Saturation Campaign (Eastern & Southern Axes): UAF Air Force confirmed multiple waves of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (08:32Z, 08:39Z, 08:58Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH). This confirms the transition to a high-volume RF deep strike campaign designed to suppress UAF static defensive positions and C2 infrastructure across critical operational zones.
• Confirmation of UAF Dita SPG Deployment: Open-source intelligence confirmed the deployment of the Czech 155mm/L45 Dita Self-Propelled Howitzer by UAF forces to the frontline (08:40Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH). This indicates the continued influx and integration of high-value Western artillery systems to maintain UAF counter-battery capacity.
• RF Exploitation of Dnipropetrovsk Breach: RF Vostok Group claimed successful UAV strikes against UAF armored vehicles and personnel in the Vremevsky direction (Dnipro Oblast) (08:30Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM). This corroborates the previous assessment that RF is actively exploiting the newly established bridgehead near Peschanoye to generate tactical pressure on UAF flanks.
• UAF Attrition Success in Kupiansk: UAF 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade confirmed a highly effective thermal FPV strike, destroying an RF transport vehicle and eliminating at least six personnel in the Kupiansk direction (08:57Z, BUTUSOV PLUS, HIGH). This reinforces the assessment of UAF success in maintaining an active containment/attrition posture in the North.
• Escalating Internal Security Crisis in RF: Multiple RF and UAF sources confirmed a severe violent incident (school attack/IED plot) in Odintsovo (Moscow region), prompting immediate efforts by RF state security (TASS, SK RF) to investigate and control the information flow (08:37Z-08:57Z, HIGH). This suggests a significant diversion of internal security and IO resources away from the primary theater.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Operations and Assets: The most significant kinetic development is the confirmation of sustained, wide-area KAB saturation across three major oblasts (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). This indicates that the RF SEAD/Counter-battery effort, previously led by Lancets, is being supplemented by highly destructive, deep-strike glide bombs, maximizing suppressive fire before the 260th GRAU artillery surge manifests. This synchronizes with continuous RF propaganda highlighting the Lancet's high operational capability and extended range (100km) (26-27 Nov).

Maneuver & Intent: RF intent remains focused on kinetic penetration in the East, while the Vostok Group accelerates its exploitation of the newly created Dnipropetrovsk breach (Vremevsky/Peschanoye). The Vostok Group's use of UAVs (08:30Z) in this breach area confirms an active attempt to establish a sustained bridgehead, posing an increased threat to the operational rear of UAF forces in the Pokrovsk sector.

Hybrid Operations / Force Projection: Formal, persistent recruitment advertising for the RF "African Corps" continues (08:31Z). This long-term strategic priority consumes operational resources (personnel, funds, IO efforts) that could otherwise be allocated to the Ukraine theater. Fundraisers for deployed VDV units (09:03Z) imply persistent, high operational tempo and logistical strain on key RF conventional forces.

Threat Assessment: The overall threat level remains CRITICAL. The combined threat of widespread KAB strikes (deep rear interdiction) and the accelerating flank maneuver by the Vostok Group in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast necessitates immediate re-prioritization of tactical reserves to stabilize the southern flank.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Engagement:

1. Northern Attrition: The success of the UAF 14th Mechanized Brigade thermal FPV strike (08:57Z) highlights the effectiveness of UAF tactical intelligence and UAV application in eliminating exposed RF movement, validating the use of high-tech assets for localized attrition in static or low-intensity sectors.
2. Southern Counter-Battery/Defense: Defense Forces of the South report high RF losses, including the destruction of a BM-27 Uragan MLRS (09:03Z). This indicates UAF is sustaining effective counter-fire against high-value RF systems despite pressure.
3. New Capability Integration: Confirmation of the Czech Dita 155mm SPG deployment (08:40Z) signals the continued modernization and integration of NATO-standard fires systems, enhancing UAF mobility and range for counter-battery missions.

Infrastructure Resilience: DTEK confirmed significant progress in restoring power in Odesa Oblast following the recent massive RF strikes, with 330,000 families reconnected (08:37Z). This demonstrates strong UAF/civilian infrastructure repair resilience, mitigating the strategic impact of RF energy targeting.

Information environment / disinformation

1. RF Domestic Crisis Focus: The highly publicized and confirmed school attack in Odintsovo (Moscow) is forcing RF authorities to divert IO resources to manage the narrative surrounding the internal security failure. The official response, emphasizing censorship and controlled investigations (08:57Z), suggests deep concern over the incident's impact on domestic stability. This incident, coupled with crackdowns on human rights defenders (08:55Z) and reports of mobilization-related family tragedy (08:44Z), amplifies a narrative of systemic RF instability.
2. UAF Political Stability & Future Planning: Ukrainian media reported on the drafting of wartime election legislation (09:03Z). While sensitive, public acknowledgment of high-level planning regarding post-war/future governance projects an image of institutional stability and long-term vision, counteracting RF narratives of governmental collapse.
3. Strategic IO Friction (EU Assets): The reported dispute over guarantees for utilizing frozen Russian assets (08:36Z) confirms continued weakness in EU solidarity regarding sanctions enforcement, providing RF IO material to undermine Western cohesion.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike and Flank Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will sustain the KAB saturation campaign across Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia to further degrade UAF C2 and morale. Concurrently, the Vostok Group will attempt to consolidate and expand its position in the Vremevsky/Dnipro breach area using UAV-guided infantry and supported by artillery, forcing UAF command to commit reserves to the South.

MDCOA (FEBA Collapse in the East): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If the KAB saturation successfully suppresses UAF counter-battery assets (including newly deployed systems like Dita), and if UAF forces are critically tied down attempting to contain the Dnipropetrovsk flank threat, RF may launch a synchronized, large-scale mechanized assault into the Pokrovsk sector (utilizing the 260th GRAU surge), aiming for a rapid, localized penetration that leads to a significant tactical withdrawal of UAF forces.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The operational urgency necessitates focusing collection on the RF commitment to the flank operation and the timing of the massive artillery surge.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. J2/OC South (IMMEDIATE): Re-task available ISR (including SIGINT/HUMINT from local partisans) to track RF logistics flowing toward the Vremevsky/Peschanoye axis (P2). Confirm the commitment of armor units necessary for a sustained RF advance; if confirmed, shift heavy artillery fire accordingly.
2. J3/OC East & North: Implement heightened anti-drone and EW measures across all FPV/UAV antenna locations near the FEBA, based on the confirmed RF targeting of UAF FPV C2 equipment (Pokrovsk, 08:28Z). Prioritize movement dispersion for high-value counter-battery assets (e.g., Dita SPG) to defeat RF KAB and Lancet targeting.
3. J7/High Command IO: Immediately amplify the confirmed RF domestic security crises (Odintsovo school attack, Yekaterinburg crackdown) to undermine the Russian Federation's narrative of stability and national purpose both domestically and internationally.
4. J4/Logistics: Given the multi-axis KAB threat (P3) and recent drone strike confirmation on civilian infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia, 08:29Z), assume all fixed infrastructure (railheads, large warehouses) within 50km of the LOC are targets. Implement highly mobile, distributed supply points immediately.