Sitrep 2025-12-16 06:35:43

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T06:35Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL – RF forces are sustaining kinetic pressure in the South and opening new deep reconnaissance vectors (Central Ukraine) as a complex shaping operation preceding the anticipated massed artillery engagement in the Eastern Axis.

Key updates since last sitrep

Air Raid All Clear (Zaporizhzhia): The air raid alert related to the earlier high-speed kinetic strike (06:02Z) has been declared concluded (06:18Z, ZOVA, HIGH). The immediate danger has passed, but the source unit remains unidentified (P4 requirement).
New Deep Reconnaissance (Cherkasy): An RF UAV was detected transiting Cherkasy Oblast, tracking in the direction of Zolotonosha (06:32Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH). This indicates probing of UAF AD coverage in the Central Region, likely targeting critical infrastructure.
Security Guarantee Affirmation: Polish PM Tusk affirmed that the United States would provide a military response to renewed RF aggression against Ukraine (06:12Z, Operatyvny ZSU, MEDIUM). This reinforces the credibility of post-conflict security architecture planning.
RF Peace Negotiation IO: RF state media amplified a claim suggesting UAF President Zelensky may be forced into peace talks due to domestic issues (corruption, energy crisis), aligning with RF information warfare goals (06:08Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED source).
Kharkiv Attrition Fire: Seven settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were targeted by enemy strikes over the past 24 hours (06:34Z, Kharkiv OVA, MEDIUM), confirming sustained attrition kinetics along the Northern axis.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status & Geometry	Key Threat/Activity	Analyst Judgment (Confidence)
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk	Immediate kinetic threat from 06:02Z strike concluded. Containment of the Peschanoye breach remains the tactical focus.	Sustained RF interdiction remains likely, seeking to fix UAF reserves in the South.	RF intent to pin Southern reserves is unchanged (HIGH)
Eastern Axis (Siversk/Pokrovsk)	Deterioration continues (Unchanged baseline). No new kinetic reports in this timeframe. Focus remains on preparing for the 260th GRAU synchronization event.	Imminent risk of massed artillery engagement, driven by GRAU deployment (P1).	RF is in the final preparation phase for large-scale fires (HIGH)
Central Ukraine (Cherkasy)	UAV presence detected moving toward Zolotonosha.	RF probing for vulnerable high-value targets (e.g., rail/energy infrastructure) in the deep rear, distracting AD assets.	RF attempting to open a new kinetic front outside the main battle space (MEDIUM)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Operations and Multi-Domain Shaping: RF operations are showing increased synchronization in the deep rear:

Central AD Probing (Cherkasy): The deployment of a UAV toward Zolotonosha (06:32Z) suggests targeted reconnaissance or attack against critical energy or logistical hubs in Central Ukraine. This tactic is designed to stretch UAF Air Defense/PVO resources already tasked to the South and East.
Northern Fixation (Kharkiv): Continued shelling (06:34Z) serves to fix UAF forces on the border, preventing redeployment to critical Eastern axes.

Strategic Threat Conclusion: The immediate kinetic threat has diversified (Cherkasy UAV), but the Primary Strategic Threat remains the 260th GRAU synchronization in the East. RF is using attrition and deep strikes on secondary axes to mask final preparations for the main effort.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Air Defense Response: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting the UAV intrusion into Cherkasy Oblast (06:32Z), enabling targeted AD response protocols in the Central Military Zone.
Diplomatic Strategy: UAF continues to successfully lock in long-term security commitments, leveraging statements from NATO allies (Tusk, 06:12Z) to counter RF IO narratives of eventual abandonment.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF Information Warfare campaign has intensified its focus on discouraging UAF resistance by promoting narratives of inevitability:

Coerced Peace Talks: The TASS report (06:08Z) pushing the idea that UAF leadership will be forced to negotiate due to internal instability (corruption, energy) is a calculated move to lower public morale and create political friction. This UNCONFIRMED claim should be immediately rebutted by UAF public affairs.
Security Guarantee Skepticism: RF milblogger networks (06:28Z) are working to undermine Western security pledges, painting them as symbolic and hollow, aiming to decrease UAF confidence in long-term Western support.
FSB Control Narrative: The report of detaining a minor in Mariupol for sabotage (06:31Z) reinforces the RF narrative of decisive, effective control over occupied territories and justifies repressive internal security measures.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Shaping Fire and AD Testing): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue localized kinetic pressure. The Cherkasy UAV activity indicates a high probability of follow-on deep strikes (Missile or Shahed) targeting central logistical nodes to disrupt reinforcement flows to the East. Tactical ground attacks will likely be restricted to holding or reinforcing the Peschanoye breach and maintaining pressure on the collapsing Siversk sector.

MDCOA (Breakthrough Preceded by Logistical Severance): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF successfully interdicts a major logistical hub in Central Ukraine (following the Cherkasy probe), causing immediate Class V/III supply constraints for the Eastern Grouping. This logistical shock is immediately followed by the initiation of the 260th GRAU massed fires, creating conditions for the operational collapse of the Siversk-Pokrovsk line.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The RF strategic intent (GRAU destination) remains the highest priority gap. New kinetic activity requires immediate adjustment to Central AOR collection efforts.

Priority	Gap/Requirement	Rationale	Status
P1 (CRITICAL)	260th GRAU Destination.	Confirm the rail outflow vector (South vs. East) to predict the main RF operational effort over the next 72 hours.	UNCHANGED
P2 (CRITICAL)	Siversk Disposition.	Urgent clarity is needed on the specific composition and intent of RF assault forces driving the "rapid deterioration."	UNCHANGED
P3 (URGENT)	Cherkasy UAV Intent/Targeting.	Determine the intended target and unit source of the UAV detected near Zolotonosha (06:32Z) to enable pre-emptive AD coverage for critical energy/logistics hubs in the Central Region.	UPDATED (New immediate threat)
P4 (PRIORITY)	Zaporizhzhia Strike Origin.	Identify the launching platform/source unit for the high-speed target/missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia District (06:02Z).	RE-PRIORITIZED

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:

J3/OC Central: Elevate AD posture to CRITICAL in Cherkasy, Poltava, and Kyiv Oblasts. Task ELINT/SIGINT assets to immediately monitor the Cherkasy/Zolotonosha area for launch vehicle communication signatures or ground control station emissions (P3).
J2/IO Command: Launch an immediate counter-IO campaign against the TASS-amplified narrative (06:08Z). This campaign should highlight unwavering UAF national resolve, energy sector resilience, and the formalization of US military response guarantees (06:12Z).
J4/Logistics Command: Confirm redundancy and physical security measures around all high-voltage substations and major rail bridges in the Central Military Zone (Cherkasy/Poltava/Kremenchuk triangle) in anticipation of follow-on strikes from the detected UAV reconnaissance (P3).

Situation Report