Archived operational intelligence briefing
DTG: 2025-12-16T03:45Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL – Operations remain focused on immediate defense against RF logistics interdiction (Odesa) and preventing the expansion of the tactical breach in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Peschanoye).
| Sector | Current Status & Geometry | Key Threat/Activity |
|---|---|---|
| Odesa/Southern Rear | High alert continues; Air Defense systems are actively managing the confirmed inbound UAV swarm. Infrastructure protection is primary effort. (Baseline) | RF kinetics focused on logistics strangulation via UAV deep strike. Target identification of specific GLOC infrastructure remains CRITICAL. |
| Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk | Localized air threat (City) terminated, but the high alert state (Oblast missile danger) persists. Defensive lines held around Peschanoye breach perimeter. (03:22Z Update) | RF Vostok Group continues utilizing heavy fire assets (TOS-2, Baseline) to press the Peschanoye breach and exploit tactical mobility. |
| Eastern Axis (Siversk/Pokrovsk) | Deterioration continues, particularly in Siversk and CQC in Pokrovsk. Focus remains on fixing RF assault groups and awaiting the confirmed artillery surge. (Baseline) | RF continues to fix UAF forces using urban combat while positioning heavy artillery assets (260th GRAU) for operational shock effect. |
Ground Maneuver/Firepower: RF ground activity is characterized by sustained pressure rather than immediate large-scale maneuver since 03:15Z. The persistence of the missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirms RF intent to maintain kinetic pressure on UAF concentration areas and logistics nodes supporting the Eastern Axis, complementing the high-tempo UAV campaign in Odesa.
Command & Control / IO: RF Information Operations are highly active and targeted at the diplomatic domain. The use of proxy voices (ex-SBU) via TASS to delegitimize Ukrainian peace proposals is a standard practice aimed at reducing international political support for Kyiv's strategic objectives. This IO push directly follows recent geopolitical assurances from PM Tusk regarding U.S. support (Baseline), indicating proactive RF narrative control.
Analytical Judgment: RF Command is maintaining synchronized pressure across kinetic and cognitive domains. The kinetic efforts (Odesa logistics interdiction and Zaporizhzhia ground/fire assault) ensure UAF tactical units are fixed and strained, while the IO environment is manipulated to undermine UAF long-term strategic goals (peace negotiations, Western backing). The lack of immediate tactical shift suggests RF is in a holding pattern, awaiting the operational effects of the logistics strikes or the positioning of the 260th GRAU artillery mass. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF forces successfully managed the immediate air threat to Zaporizhzhia city, indicating effective command and control regarding air defense alert procedures. The diplomatic narrative regarding security guarantees (Baseline) remains strong, though the current outlook provided by PM Tusk (no pre-Christmas ceasefire) necessitates UAF preparation for extended, high-intensity conflict management throughout the winter period.
The primary RF IO theme is the diplomatic isolation and impracticality of Ukrainian peace conditions. This theme is deployed to influence international support and domestic morale simultaneously. UAF IO channels should counter the "unviable plan" narrative by emphasizing the defensive and stabilizing role of UAF proposals, while preparing the public for the sustained conflict projected by allied statements (Tusk's ceasefire skepticism).
MLCOA (Immediate AD and Suppression): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Defense will continue engagement against the Odesa UAV swarm. RF Vostok Group will likely conduct focused, short-duration heavy fire assaults (potentially utilizing TOS-2 where confirmed) near the Gaychur River bridgehead (Peschanoye) to maintain fixing power and gauge the responsiveness of UAF reserves.
MDCOA (Operational Shock Trigger): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF executes the first wave of the 260th GRAU artillery saturation barrage against the Siversk/Pokrovsk lines, immediately following the peak disruption caused by the Odesa logistics strikes. This coordinated operational shock aims to break UAF defensive cohesion in the Eastern Axis.
The core intelligence gaps remain unchanged and are of CRITICAL priority given the immediate operational tempo and confirmed strategic threat vectors (260th GRAU, Siversk collapse risk).
| Priority | Gap/Requirement | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | Siversk Disposition. | Urgent clarity is needed on the specific composition and intent of RF assault forces driving the "rapid deterioration" to inform critical UAF reinforcement or withdrawal decisions. |
| P2 (CRITICAL) | Odesa UAV Target ID. | Identify the specific infrastructure targeted by the inbound UAV swarm to activate tailored AD protocols and backup redundancy systems for Southern GLOCs. |
| P3 (URGENT) | 260th GRAU Destination. | Confirming the rail outflow vector (South/Vostok Group vs. East/Pokrovsk focus) remains crucial for identifying the primary RF operational effort over the next 72 hours. |
| P4 (PRIORITY) | Peschanoye Bridgehead Depth. | Confirmation of heavy armor/mechanized vehicle presence west of the Gaychur River is required to validate the operational maneuver potential toward Pokrovsk’s rear. |
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