Archived operational intelligence briefing
DTG: 2025-12-16T03:15Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL – Defensive operations are immediately focused on managing a high-tempo logistics interdiction campaign (Odesa) concurrent with heavy kinetic pressure on the Eastern and Southern axes (Zaporizhzhia/Siversk).
| Sector | Current Status & Geometry | Key Threat/Activity |
|---|---|---|
| Odesa/Southern Rear | High alert and active air defense posture due to confirmed inbound UAV swarm. Infrastructure protection is paramount following the Zatoka bridge strike (Baseline). | RF continues its logistics strangulation strategy, targeting newly activated or critical infrastructure hubs/GLOCs near Odesa. |
| Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk | Defensive lines maintained, focusing on containing the breach at Peschanoye and managing RF heavy fire assets (TOS-2 confirmed near Huliaipole, Baseline). | RF Vostok Group seeks to exploit tactical breakthroughs using maximum firepower to accelerate UAF abandonment of fixed fortifications. No new maneuver reported since 02:35Z. |
| Eastern Axis (Siversk/Pokrovsk) | Deterioration continues (Baseline). CQC in Pokrovsk. Situation critical regarding the potential collapse of Siversk defenses. | RF continues fixing UAF reserves in urban combat while awaiting the 260th GRAU artillery surge (Baseline). |
Ground Maneuver/Firepower: The operational tempo in Zaporizhzhia remains high, driven by the commitment of specialized assets (TOS-2). This suggests RF command is still prioritizing the expansion of the tactical breach at Peschanoye or forcing a localized breakthrough at Huliaipole prior to the anticipated artillery surge (260th GRAU, Baseline SAR 30.78).
Aerial/Drone Warfare: The detected UAV groups inbound to Odesa confirm the priority of the RF deep strike campaign. This immediate threat aims to degrade UAF ability to sustain forces in the East/South via sea and rail links. This aggressive pattern shows RF intent to achieve operational paralysis in UAF logistics within the next 48 hours.
Command & Control / IO: The flight restriction at Sheremetyevo, though unconfirmed in cause, raises the possibility of increased RF domestic air defense activity, potentially in response to UAF deep strikes (e.g., Astrakhan strike, Daily Report Baseline). The RF use of TASS to report non-Ukrainian events (US naval action) is a clear distraction strategy aiming to occupy the global narrative.
Analytical Judgment: RF forces are synchronized across multiple domains: utilizing specialized ground fire (TOS-2) for tactical gains, active logistics interdiction (Odesa UAVs), and leveraging high-volume munitions reserves (260th GRAU) for future operational effect. The main effort remains the strangulation of UAF supply routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF Air Force demonstrated effective early warning capability regarding the Odesa UAV threat, allowing for proactive air defense engagement. Diplomatic efforts continue to bear fruit, with public affirmations from US allies countering the RF narrative of Western abandonment. UAF forces maintain defensive readiness across critical sectors, though resources remain heavily constrained by the RF interdiction campaign.
The immediate statement by PM Tusk regarding US security guarantees directly counters the most damaging RF Information Operation (IO) theme: the political abandonment of Ukraine by NATO partners. This should be amplified by UAF IO channels to bolster domestic and frontline morale. The RF attempt to divert attention using reports of US naval action suggests a coordinated attempt to control the media cycle.
MLCOA (Immediate AD and Suppression): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Defense will be fully engaged in the Odesa region attempting to neutralize the inbound UAV swarm. Simultaneously, RF forces will initiate localized, heavy-fire assaults supported by TOS-2 in the Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole area, seeking to widen the breach or create a new one before UAF reserves can be allocated effectively.
MDCOA (Operational Shock): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF executes a simultaneous high-density artillery strike (leveraging the 260th GRAU surge) across Siversk, Pokrovsk, and the Zaporizhzhia line, immediately following the current UAV interdiction wave. This coordinated kinetic shock effect aims to trigger a collapse in one of the critically deteriorated sectors (Siversk), potentially achieving operational freedom of maneuver toward Kramatorsk/Slovyansk.
| Priority | Gap/Requirement | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | Siversk Disposition. | The "rapid deterioration" reported in the baseline requires specific RF force identification (composition/intent) to determine if UAF should commit emergency reinforcements or prepare for tactical withdrawal. |
| P2 (CRITICAL) | Odesa UAV Target ID. | Identify the specific infrastructure assets targeted by the inbound UAV swarm to activate tailored AD protocols and backup redundancy systems for GLOCs. |
| P3 (URGENT) | 260th GRAU Destination. | Confirming the rail outflow vector (South/Vostok Group vs. East/Pokrovsk focus) remains crucial for identifying the primary RF operational effort over the next 72 hours. |
| P4 (PRIORITY) | Sheremetyevo Restriction Cause. | Determine if the Moscow flight restrictions are related to domestic air defense, cyber activity, or non-kinetic infrastructure failure. This informs assessments of UAF deep-strike effectiveness or RF internal security posture. |
| P5 (PRIORITY) | Peschanoye Bridgehead Depth. | Confirmation of heavy armor/mechanized vehicle presence west of the Gaychur River is required to validate the operational maneuver potential toward Pokrovsk’s rear. |
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