Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T02:35Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL – Defensive posture maintained amidst continued logistics interdiction and localized pressure on the Southern and Eastern axes.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Information Operations (IO) claim the employment of a TOS-2 heavy flamethrower system against a UAF strongpoint near Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling commitment of high-intensity assets to the sector. (02:06Z, TASS, MEDIUM Confidence)
• UAF Air Force tracked an RF UAV originating from Sumy Oblast targeting Kolomak, Kharkiv region, confirming continued deep strike threats against rear echelon logistics/C2 nodes. (02:11Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH Confidence)
• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issued an active alert, indicating continued hostile kinetic activity in the area following the confirmed Vostok Group advance into Peschanoye (previous reporting period). (02:21Z, Zaporizhzhia RMA, HIGH Confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Ground Maneuver/Firepower: The claimed deployment of the TOS-2 heavy flamethrower system in the Huliaipole area (Zaporizhzhia) suggests RF command intends to use maximum firepower to accelerate tactical breakthroughs. The TOS-2 is specifically designed to clear fortified positions and urban areas rapidly, minimizing RF infantry exposure. This indicates RF forces are prioritizing achieving a breakthrough in the Southern sector concurrent with the existing pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary (Peschanoye).

Aerial/Missile Threat: The confirmed UAV flight path toward Kolomak reinforces the assessment that RF is maintaining a high tempo of deep strike interdiction. Targets likely include critical rail links, fuel depots, or rear area concentrations essential for UAF logistics supporting the Donbas front.

Logistics & Sustainment: The overarching threat remains the logistics strangulation campaign targeting Kostiantynivka and Zatoka (Baseline). The high SAR score at the 260th GRAU arsenal (30.78) indicates the theatre is saturated with munitions, pending delivery, suggesting that the next 6-12 hours could see a significant escalation in RF artillery volume along the primary axes of advance.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are maintaining heightened readiness, evidenced by the effective tracking and immediate dissemination of air alerts (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia). Focus remains on resource allocation to manage the logistics deficit created by the interdiction strikes and stabilizing the flanks. No offensive maneuvers were reported during this window.

Information environment / disinformation

RF state media (TASS) is actively leveraging combat footage (TOS-2 deployment) to generate specific fear effects regarding RF breaching capabilities on the Zaporizhzhia axis. This serves to bolster domestic morale and potentially suppress UAF resolve in heavily fortified sectors like Huliaipole. There is no new intelligence countering the baseline IO regarding Western abandonment.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Exploitation and Suppression): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue to use specialized assets (TOS-2, heavy artillery) to rapidly clear localized strong points in the Zaporizhzhia region, focusing on expanding the Peschanoye salient or creating a breakthrough along the Huliaipole line. Concurrent air strikes on rear echelon logistics nodes (mirroring the Kolomak threat) will continue to throttle UAF resupply efforts to Siversk and Pokrovsk.

MDCOA (Breakthrough to Operational Depth): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Should the specialized firepower succeed in forcing an immediate UAF withdrawal or collapse of specific defenses near Huliaipole, RF Vostok Group will attempt rapid exploitation toward key transportation hubs northwest of the current line, widening the threat to Dnipro City access routes.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements