Sitrep 2025-12-16 01:35:39

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T01:40Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (Multi-Axis Deep Strike Execution)

Key updates since last sitrep

New Northern Deep Strike Vector Identified (Chernihiv) (01:23Z, AF UA, HIGH): New groups of RF UAVs entered Chernihiv Oblast from the North, setting course towards Kholmy and Korop. This establishes a third, simultaneous axis for deep kinetic operations, designed to maximize strain on UAF Air Defense (AD) assets.
Odesa Strike Wave Sustained (01:28Z, AF UA, HIGH): Additional waves of UAVs were detected approaching Odesa from the Black Sea, confirming the RF intent to complete the interdiction of Southern logistics (Artsyz/Chornomorsk) as detailed in the previous sitrep.
Temporary Air Alert Lifted in Zaporizhzhia (01:31Z, ZOVA, HIGH): The air raid alert has been lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, temporarily alleviating immediate kinetic pressure in the sector bordering the Dnipropetrovsk breach area.
RF Domestic IO Focuses on Economic Management (01:29Z, TASS, HIGH): A high-profile Russian politician (Mironov) proposed freezing public transport prices, continuing the internal narrative of economic stability and addressing citizen costs amid sustained warfare.

Operational picture (by sector)

RF forces have expanded their deep strike campaign into the Northern operational zone, shifting from a primarily Southern/Eastern logistics interdiction focus to a nation-wide AD degradation strategy.

Sector	Current Status	Key Change (Since 01:05Z)	Assessment
Odesa / South	CRITICAL (Imminent Strike)	Confirmed follow-on UAV waves increase probability of successful strike on Artsyz/Sarata GLOCs and port infrastructure NLT 02:30Z.	HIGH probability of success for RF interdiction effort due to sustained volume.
Chernihiv / North	HIGH (New Kinetic Threat)	New UAV axis targeting Kholmy/Korop. This route threatens secondary northern logistics corridors and forces UAF to allocate AD assets previously reserved for the central axis.	This attack appears designed to stretch AD resources and potentially strike high-value fixed infrastructure targets in the North.
Dnipropetrovsk / Zaporizhzhia	HIGH (Pending Strike/Ground Threat)	Air alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia, but the CRITICAL threat of the Synelnykove strike (Dnipropetrovsk) remains (PDR 01:05Z Outlook). RF Vostok Group exploitation of the Peschanoye breach continues to drive operational necessity.	UAF reserves remain fixed on the Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA Phase IIc): Multi-Axis AD Saturation and Logistics Severance. RF forces are synchronizing deep kinetic operations across three separate axes (South, East-Central, North) to dilute UAF AD effectiveness and ensure successful strikes on key logistics targets.

Tactical Activity:

AD Diversion (Chernihiv): The Chernihiv UAV groups (Kholmy, Korop) likely serve a dual purpose: striking fixed infrastructure in the North, and drawing UAF Mobile Fire Teams and SAM systems away from the primary interdiction zones (Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk).
Sustained South Attack: The continuation of UAV strikes on Odesa confirms that the RF main effort in the current kinetic phase is the complete disruption of Western/Southern GLOCs.

Logistics and Sustainment: RF capacity to launch simultaneous UAV waves across vast distances confirms robust operational planning and sustained inventory of deep strike assets (likely Shahed variants).

Threat Rating: CRITICAL for UAF AD management and logistics sustainment over the next 6 hours.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF AD must immediately re-task air defense assets to counter the newly identified Northern vector in Chernihiv, while maintaining maximum coverage over the CRITICAL Southern logistics hubs (Artsyz, Odesa).

Actionable Recommendation: Re-prioritize AD allocation. If Northern targets are assessed as lower military value than Odesa infrastructure, UAF AD must accept higher probability of impact in Chernihiv to ensure maximum protection of the Southern GLOCs which underpin the Eastern Grouping.

Information environment / disinformation

The IO domain reflects continued strategic messaging from the West and reactive domestic messaging from Russia.

Western Messaging: RF state media continues to repeat the UK PM Starmer statement regarding the "Coalition of the Willing" troop deployment contingency plans (01:07Z). This information retains high strategic value for both sides (deterrence vs. propaganda).
RF Domestic Stability: RF IO is actively managing the narrative of domestic stability by proposing visible measures to address economic pressure points (public transport price freeze, TASS 01:29Z). This, alongside reports of typical domestic crime/fraud (Khabarovsk Police, 01:26Z), suggests an attempt to portray the country as functioning normally despite the war effort.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (AD Overload and Guaranteed Strikes): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF air assets will execute kinetic strikes on the confirmed Northern and Southern axes NLT 03:00Z. The goal is to secure guaranteed BDA (Odesa/Artsyz) and ensure the UAF AD network is overtaxed and dispersed. The anticipated strike on Synelnykove Raion (Dnipropetrovsk) is expected to follow this initial strike wave NLT 03:30Z.

MDCOA (Northern Ground Fixation): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The new Northern strike vector may precede or mask ground maneuver planning in the Sumy/Chernihiv region, forcing UAF reserves to redeploy from the Donbas or Dnipropetrovsk to address the Northern threat. This would facilitate easier ground exploitation by the Vostok Group from the Peschanoye bridgehead.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Requirement / Tasking	Rationale
P1 (CRITICAL)	Strike Confirmation and BDA (Odesa & Chernihiv). Immediate confirmation of impact and damage assessment for UAV strikes targeting Artsyz, Sarata, and the newly affected Northern targets (Kholmy/Korop).	Immediate tasking of IMINT/HUMINT/Patrol assets for damage assessment on rail/road infrastructure in Odesa and Northern targets.	Essential to determine the success of logistics severance and the military value of the newly targeted Northern infrastructure.
P1 (CRITICAL)	AD Tasking and Allocation Status. Current disposition and engagement status of UAF AD assets responding to the tripartite (South, Center-East, North) threat.	J3/J6 tasking to report on immediate reallocation decisions and expenditure rates for SAM/AD systems.	Determines the operational risk level for key fixed infrastructure and reserve logistics hubs.
P2 (URGENT)	UAV Mission Profile (Chernihiv). Determine if the Chernihiv groups are reconnaissance, strike platforms, or acting as decoys.	Task tactical ISR (EW/SIGINT) to determine UAV mission profile and potential follow-on aircraft activity (e.g., electronic emissions consistent with strike vs. surveillance).	Confirms if the Northern axis is a genuine strike effort or a diversionary tactic to facilitate success in the South.
P2 (URGENT)	Synelnykove Strike Status. Confirmation of execution status of the long-anticipated strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.	Maintain existing SIGINT/ELINT over Dnipropetrovsk.	Allows UAF command to commit reserves to containment/defense of the Peschanoye breach once the deep strike threat in the area has materialized or been neutralized.

Situation Report