Sitrep 2025-12-16 01:05:37

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T01:05Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (Deep Strike Execution Phase – Kinetic Exploitation)

Key updates since last sitrep

Intensified UAV Targeting of Odesa Logistics (00:41Z, 00:56Z, AF UA, HIGH): RF UAV activity has shifted from general reconnaissance toward specific, high-value logistic targets in Odesa Oblast, with tracks confirmed heading toward Artsyz and Sarata (key railway/road hubs south of Odesa). New waves of UAVs also approached Odesa/Chornomorsk from the Black Sea (00:56Z, 00:58Z).
Expanded UAV Footprint in Dnipropetrovsk (00:58Z, AF UA, HIGH): RF reconnaissance/strike UAVs are now reported in the East (near Chaplyne) and Southwest (near Nikopol moving Westbound) of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, significantly expanding the monitored area beyond the primary Synelnykove threat axis.
Geopolitical Contingency Planning Reported (00:46Z, 01:00Z, TASS/RBC UA, HIGH): Reports indicate that a "Coalition of the Willing/Decisive" has prepared contingency plans for deploying ground troops to Ukraine if necessary (attributed to Keir Starmer). This signals heightened international military preparedness.
RF Domestic IO Continues Normalization (00:37Z, TASS, HIGH): RF state media promoted statistics highlighting increased pension payments, continuing the internal narrative of economic stability despite ongoing large-scale military operations.

Operational picture (by sector)

RF forces are transitioning from the initial high-intensity deep strike phase (KAB usage) to the kinetic exploitation phase, using persistent low-cost assets (UAVs) to confirm BDA and hit secondary targets, particularly targeting Southern logistics.

Sector	Current Status	Key Change (Since 00:40Z)	Assessment
Odesa / South	CRITICAL (Immediate Strike Threat)	UAV activity (Shahed) is specifically targeting the Artsyz/Sarata GLOCs and key port infrastructure (Odesa/Chornomorsk). This confirms intent to disrupt logistics feeding the Southern theatre from the West.	HIGH probability of infrastructure strike NLT 02:00Z. UAF AD is tasked with immediate engagement.
Dnipropetrovsk	HIGH (Expanded Recon)	New UAV tracks near Chaplyne (East) and Nikopol (SW).	The eastern track threatens the main railway artery that feeds Donetsk, while the southwestern track monitors the river crossing approaches and potential UAF maneuvering to contain the Peschanoye breach.
Donetsk / Sumy	CRITICAL (BDA Pending)	Status Unchanged. Confirmed KAB strikes (00:10Z, 00:14Z) require immediate BDA collection.	The effects of the initial logistics strikes are the primary factor driving RF ground maneuver planning.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA Phase IIb): Kinetic Exploitation and Infrastructure Interdiction. RF forces are using persistent UAV activity to follow up the confirmed KAB deep strikes, specifically targeting the vulnerable south-western GLOCs that circumvent the previously struck Zatoka bridge bottleneck.

Tactical Activity:

Targeting Specific GLOCs: The shift in Odesa targeting towards Artsyz and Sarata is highly tactical. Artsyz is a key rail junction connecting Odesa to Izmail/Reni (Romanian border logistics). Hitting this junction would severely degrade the UAF ability to sustain the Southern Group via Romanian rail and road transfers.
ISR Synchronization in Dnipropetrovsk: The scattered UAV activity across Dnipropetrovsk (Chaplyne, Nikopol) suggests RF is simultaneously seeking BDA on key rail lines and monitoring UAF reserve movement in response to the Peschanoye breach and the impending Synelnykove strike (previously alerted).
Threat Rating: CRITICAL in the Odesa sector due to imminent UAV strikes on critical rail/port infrastructure. HIGH across the Eastern theatre as RF maintains operational synchronization between deep strikes (pending BDA) and persistent ISR coverage.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense (AD) assets are operating under severe pressure, particularly in the South (Odesa Oblast). AD prioritization must remain focused on incoming UAV swarms threatening major logistics hubs (Artsyz, Chornomorsk).

Immediate coordination is required to integrate local security forces and mobile fire teams against the high volume of UAV threats in Odesa, minimizing potential damage to the Artsyz/Sarata rail/road corridors.

Information environment / disinformation

The information environment is dominated by the strategic statement regarding the "Coalition of the Willing" preparing troop deployment plans (Starmer).

Impact Assessment (HIGH Confidence): This information serves immediate strategic deterrence value for Ukraine, signaling Western commitment beyond materiel supply, and potentially counters RF IO narratives of Western abandonment.
RF Response: RF state media is utilizing domestic-focused IO (pensions, TASS 00:37Z) and classic misdirection (Trump lawsuit, TASS 01:04Z) to downplay the geopolitical implications of the troop contingency report and maintain an internal narrative of normalization and stability.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (South Coast Logistics Severance): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF air assets will execute the confirmed UAV strikes on the Artsyz/Sarata GLOCs and Odesa/Chornomorsk infrastructure NLT 02:30Z. This is designed to complete the isolation of the South Coast logistics system.

Secondary MLCOA (Dnipropetrovsk Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The kinetic execution of the previously alerted KAB/Missile strike against Synelnykove Raion is still expected NLT 03:00Z, following the UAV reconnaissance currently underway in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

MDCOA (Ground Exploitation - Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Following the completion of the deep strike wave and BDA collection, RF Vostok Group will accelerate the offensive from the Peschanoye bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk) westward or northwestward, aiming to fix UAF reserves required for the defense of the Eastern Grouping.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Requirement / Tasking	Rationale
P1 (CRITICAL)	Strike Confirmation and BDA (Odesa). Confirmation of impact and damage assessment for the UAV strikes targeting Artsyz, Sarata, Odesa, and Chornomorsk.	Immediate tasking of IMINT/HUMINT/Patrol assets for damage assessment on rail lines and port facilities in Odesa Oblast.	Essential to determine if the Southern GLOC has been successfully severed and to plan immediate rerouting of supplies.
P1 (CRITICAL)	BDA (Donetsk/Sumy) and Synelnykove Status. Confirmation of specific targets hit by the earlier KAB strikes and execution status of the anticipated Synelnykove strike.	Maintain existing P1 requirements: SIGINT/ELINT over Dnipropetrovsk and IMINT on confirmed strike zones in Donetsk/Sumy.	Quantifies overall logistics degradation and determines the next phase of RF ground operations.
P2 (URGENT)	UAV Targeting Rationale (Dnipropetrovsk). Determine if the Chaplyne and Nikopol UAV tracks are reconnaissance for follow-on strikes or BDA/surveillance of UAF movement.	Task tactical ISR (EW/SIGINT) to determine UAV mission profile (e.g., electronic emissions consistent with surveillance vs. loitering strike platforms).	Predicts secondary RF strike vectors targeting rail lines (Chaplyne) or river crossings (Nikopol).
P3 (PRIORITY)	Coalition Troop Planning Detail. Specifics of the "Coalition of the Willing" contingency plan (e.g., size, deployment areas, timelines, mission set).	Task Strategic HUMINT/Open Source monitoring to acquire details on the Starmer statement and associated allied planning documents.	Provides critical strategic context for UAF long-term operational planning and force disposition strategy.

Situation Report