Sitrep 2025-12-16 00:35:39

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T00:40Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (Deep Strike Execution Phase – Multi-Oblast Saturation)

Key updates since last sitrep

KAB Strikes Confirmed in Donetsk and Sumy (00:10Z, 00:14Z, AF UA, HIGH): RF forces initiated precision deep strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) simultaneously targeting high-value infrastructure or fixed targets in Donetsk Oblast and, crucially, Sumy Oblast (far Northeast). This confirms the geographic breadth of the coordinated deep strike MLCOA.
Persistent UAV Activity in South/Northeast (00:05Z, 00:07Z, 00:16Z, 00:26Z, AF UA, HIGH): Low-level RF reconnaissance and potential strike UAVs were detected over Odesa (Vilkovo, Tatarbunary, near Danube delta), Kherson (Zelenivka), and Kharkiv (Velykyi Burluk). This suggests continuous target tracking and preparation for follow-on strikes or interdiction.
Deep Strike Scope Expansion (Analysis, HIGH): The confirmed KAB strike in Sumy Oblast, which was not featured in previous immediate alerts focused on Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk, indicates that the RF deep strike campaign is theatre-wide and aims to disrupt logistical systems supporting both the Eastern and Northern operational areas concurrently.
RF IO Focuses on Domestic Normalization (00:32Z, Op Z, MEDIUM): RF-affiliated media amplified a message from President Putin via proxy (Kiriyenko) concerning domestic civilian events (opening a National Center branch in Krasnoyarsk), maintaining an internal narrative of stability and functional governance despite the ongoing large-scale military operation.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture confirms the full execution of the coordinated deep strike campaign, with RF aviation assets operating aggressively across the theatre, stretching UAF Air Defense capabilities.

Sector	Current Status	Key Change (Since 00:15Z)	Assessment
Donetsk / East	CRITICAL (KAB Strike Confirmed)	KAB launches targeted the region (00:10Z).	Confirms the kinetic phase of logistics interdiction in support of ground advances (e.g., Pokrovsk, Siversk axis). BDA is immediately required.
Sumy / Northeast	CRITICAL (KAB Strike Confirmed)	KAB launches targeted the region (00:14Z).	Significant extension of the deep strike reach, aiming at reserves, logistics nodes, or critical infrastructure near the Russian border.
Dnipropetrovsk	CRITICAL (Strike Pending)	Status Unchanged. Previous alert for aviation weapons in Synelnykove remains active.	Confirmation of KAB use in other sectors increases the probability that the Dnipropetrovsk threat will also materialize via fixed-wing KAB delivery NLT 01:30Z.
Odesa / South	HIGH (UAV Recon/Strike)	UAV tracks towards Vilkovo and Tatarbunary (00:05Z, 00:26Z).	Ongoing surveillance of key coastal and river entry points, likely related to the prior Zatoka Bridge strike and monitoring of maritime GLOCs.
Kharkiv / North	HIGH (UAV Recon)	UAV near Velykyi Burluk moving NW (00:16Z).	Standard reconnaissance posture, monitoring UAF concentration areas and border logistics.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Course of Action (Confirmed Execution - MLCOA Phase II): RF forces are executing the synchronized kinetic interdiction of logistics nodes and C2 sites across the theatre, confirmed by the geographically dispersed KAB strikes on Donetsk and Sumy.

Tactical Activity:

Aviation Saturation: The simultaneous confirmed KAB strikes in three separate operational areas (alert in Dnipropetrovsk, confirmed strikes in Donetsk/Sumy) confirms RF capability and intent to engage UAF AD resources across multiple non-contiguous fronts.
KAB Targeting Rationale (Sumy): Targeting Sumy Oblast, which is adjacent to the Russian border but distant from the main axis of advance (Pokrovsk/Peschanoye), strongly suggests targeting is focused on disrupting reserve mobilization and the railway/highway networks that feed Northern and Eastern UAF groupings.
Threat Rating: CRITICAL. The simultaneous air/missile activity significantly increases the probability of highly successful strikes on critical infrastructure due to the overtasking of UAF AD.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Force is operating under an elevated threat level (HIGH) across the entire Eastern and Northeastern theatre.

Air Defense (AD) assets are engaged in tracking and potential interception of UAVs in Kherson and Odesa.
AD prioritization is CRITICAL due to simultaneous KAB launches toward Donetsk and Sumy, while the previous high-priority threat in Synelnykove (Dnipropetrovsk) remains active.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO activity in this window focused on internal morale management, attempting to project normalization and stability through centralized media coverage of President Putin, despite his physical absence (Kiriyenko read the address) (Op Z, 00:32Z). This effort is designed to counter narratives regarding RF military overextension and domestic dissatisfaction. No significant new foreign influence operations were noted in this immediate window, shifting resources towards domestic perception management.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike Phase III): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed KAB strikes will be followed immediately by the kinetic execution of the previously alerted strike against Synelnykove Raion, Dnipropetrovsk. This will complete the initial logistics strangulation wave across the entire deep rear of the Eastern Grouping.

MDCOA (Ground Exploitation - Donetsk): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Under the cover of the confirmed KAB strikes on Donetsk logistics, the RF Southern Group (Vostok) will likely increase the pace of ground operations, aiming to exploit the tactical disruption. Specifically, a large-scale, high-intensity assault is likely in the Siversk sector or toward Pokrovsk, capitalizing on the expected degradation of UAF munitions flow caused by the logistics strikes.

Timeline: Peak kinetic activity for the deep strike campaign is still forecast to occur NLT 03:00Z. Ground maneuver acceleration will follow immediately (03:00Z - 06:00Z).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Requirement / Tasking	Rationale
P1 (CRITICAL)	Strike Confirmation and BDA (Donetsk/Sumy). Determine specific targets and extent of damage inflicted by the confirmed KAB strikes in both Donetsk and Sumy oblasts.	Immediate tasking of all available IMINT/HUMINT assets for BDA collection on confirmed strike zones, prioritizing rail infrastructure, power generation, and military C2 nodes.	Essential to quantify logistics degradation and forecast resupply capacity over the next 72 hours.
P1 (CRITICAL)	Synelnykove Strike Status. Confirmation of whether the previously alerted aviation strike (00:04Z, Air Force UA) on Synelnykove Raion has been executed.	Maintain HIGH alert monitoring (SIGINT/ELINT) over Dnipropetrovsk airspace and task ISR for kinetic effects confirmation.	This strike is central to the RF effort to sever North-South GLOCs; failure to confirm impact degrades planning accuracy.
P2 (URGENT)	Vostok Armor Movement (Peschanoye). Status of RF heavy armor commitment (MBTs/IFVs) across the Gaychur River bridgehead.	Re-task SAR/Orbital assets to monitor movement W/NW out of Peschanoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) to determine if ground exploitation is synchronized with deep strikes.	Predicts whether the deep strikes are preparatory fires for an immediate operational maneuver or purely interdiction.
P3 (PRIORITY)	UAV Targeting Rationale (Odesa). Confirmation of the precise purpose (strike vs. recon) of the persistent UAV activity targeting the Tatarbunary area and Danube approaches.	Task tactical ISR to monitor the type of UAVs and their flight profiles near key coastal infrastructure and logistics hubs near the Romanian border.	Determine if RF is planning a follow-on strike to the Zatoka interdiction, aiming to isolate Odesa entirely.

Situation Report