Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T00:15Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (Deep Strike Execution Phase)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Imminent Aviation Threat in Dnipropetrovsk (00:04Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): UAF Air Force issued a specific alert for the threat of "aviation weapons" (e.g., KABs or stand-off missiles launched from aircraft) targeting Synelnykove Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This confirms the RF transition from UAV reconnaissance (reported previously) to immediate kinetic action, utilizing fixed-wing support for deep strikes.
• MLCOA Execution Validated (00:04Z, Analysis, HIGH): The strike warning validates the previous forecast that RF forces would execute a coordinated deep strike targeting the logistics/industrial rear NLT 06:00Z, following the high-volume UAV activity over Kryvyi Rih and Sloviansk.
• RF IO Undermines Sanctions/Territorial Integrity (23:46Z, 23:54Z, TASS/Op Z, MEDIUM): RF affiliated media amplified claims by Italian VP Salvini questioning the efficacy of EU sanctions, and published an unverified video clip featuring Donald Trump discussing Ukrainian territorial losses, aimed at discouraging Western support and fostering resignation.
• UAF Reaffirms Financial Security Strategy (00:00Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy emphasized that utilizing frozen RF assets (reparation loans or similar formats) is a critical component of Ukraine’s long-term financial security guarantee, countering RF narratives of economic vulnerability.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture reflects the immediate transition to the deep-strike execution phase, focusing on neutralizing the logistics and command structure supporting UAF defenders in the Eastern sector and the newly breached Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Course of Action (Confirmed Execution): RF forces are executing the kinetic phase of the Coordinated Strangulation MLCOA. The threat is now transitioned from reconnaissance (UAVs) to the use of fixed-wing assets for guided/unguided munition delivery against high-value fixed targets in the deep rear.

Tactical Activity:

• Aviation Deployment: The alert regarding "aviation weapons" suggests RF fixed-wing assets (likely Su-34/35) are operating within their stand-off range, ready to launch KABs or similar precision munitions targeting specific infrastructure identified during the prior reconnaissance phase.
• Targeting Priority: While Kryvyi Rih was the primary UAV target, the warning in Synelnykove Raion places the immediate threat area closer to the logistical heart of the Dnipro region, potentially aiming for major road/rail nodes or C2 facilities connecting Southern and Eastern groupings.

Threat Rating: CRITICAL. The next 60-90 minutes are the highest risk window for large-scale destruction of critical logistics and industrial capacity across Dnipropetrovsk and potentially Donetsk oblasts.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense (AD) assets are currently operating under a HIGH alert status in response to the specific threat warning in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Air Force UA, 00:04Z). No confirmation of successful RF strikes or UAF AD engagement in this immediate window.

Friendly information operations are focused on long-term resource security. President Zelenskyy’s statement reinforces the demand for reparation financing from frozen RF assets, aiming to maintain international donor focus on Ukraine’s economic stability (РБК-Україна, 00:00Z).

Information environment / disinformation

The primary RF IO objective remains the demoralization of the Ukrainian population and the erosion of Western political resolve.

1. Sanctions Failure Narrative: RF state media (TASS) amplifies dissenting voices within NATO countries (Salvini, Italy) to portray EU sanctions as ineffective against Russia but detrimental to European economies (23:46Z).
2. Territorial Inevitability: Pro-RF military bloggers ("Операция Z") utilized a soundbite from Donald Trump suggesting Ukraine has "lost territory" and referencing a conversation with RF President Putin. This uncorroborated framing attempts to normalize territorial concession as a prerequisite for peace (23:54Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike Phase II): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The kinetic strikes initiated in Dnipropetrovsk will likely be synchronized with or immediately followed by strikes targeting logistics choke points (railheads, bridges, depots) identified previously near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. This phase will aim to maximize the logistics pressure created by the earlier interdiction of the Zatoka and Kostiantynivka hubs. Peak kinetic activity is anticipated NLT 03:00Z.

MDCOA (Immediate Ground Exploitation): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Under the cover of the deep strikes and the resulting disruption, the RF Vostok Group currently occupying Peschanoye (Dnipropetrovsk breach area) may launch an immediate, localized armored push across the Gaychur River before UAF reserves can be committed, aiming to expand the bridgehead depth substantially.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements