Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T23:45Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (RF Deep Strike and Breach Exploitation)

Key updates since last sitrep

RF forces initiated simultaneous, coordinated aerial reconnaissance/strike missions across three major operational sectors following the critical logistics interdiction and maneuver breach reported in the previous 24-hour summary.

• Coordinated UAV Ingress (23:15Z - 23:30Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple RF unmanned aerial systems (UAS) detected simultaneously over Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Kryvyi Rih Threat Vector (23:30Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A specific UAS track was identified moving toward Kryvyi Rih from the Southeast. This directly correlates with the exploitation of the Peschanoye breach (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and validates the high-risk assessment for the city's military and industrial assets.
• Sloviansk Logistical Surveillance (23:23Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A separate UAS was tracked toward Sloviansk from the Northeast. This confirms continued RF priority on surveying critical supply nodes for follow-on kinetic strikes, particularly concerning the Pokrovsk/Chasiv Yar resupply lines already degraded by the Kostiantynivka strike.
• RF IO Focus on NATO Escalation (23:21Z, Kotenok, MEDIUM): RF affiliated sources are amplifying narratives suggesting future armed conflict with NATO (citing UK military leadership), likely aimed at deterring further Western support or raising domestic anxiety.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture reflects a transition from preparatory logistics interdiction (kinetic strikes on GLOCs) to active intelligence gathering (UAV reconnaissance) to confirm targeting data for subsequent deep strikes, likely utilizing the high-volume ammunition flow from the 260th GRAU arsenal.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Course of Action (Confirmed): RF is executing the "Coordinated Strangulation" MLCOA, prioritizing aerial reconnaissance of infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk to maximize the impact of the anticipated artillery and missile surge (260th GRAU data).

Tactical Activity:

• UAV Deployment: The multi-axis, simultaneous deployment of UAVs (Harikov, Sloviansk, Kryvyi Rih) suggests adequate RF ISR capacity and centralized coordination for deep-strike target development. (Dempster-Shafer supports high belief in Reconnaissance Mission in Dnipropetrovsk Region at 0.146).
• Target Prioritization: The focus on Kryvyi Rih (major urban/industrial center) and Sloviansk (critical railhead) indicates operational intent to degrade UAF warfighting capacity behind the lines, concurrent with ground pressure at Siversk and Pokrovsk.

Threat Rating: CRITICAL. The immediate threat is from follow-on missile/KAB strikes derived from the current reconnaissance activity (next 6-12 hours).

Friendly activity (UAF)

Friendly forces are conducting active air defense and tracking of UAS threats (UAF Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE). No new maneuver operations or counter-attacks were reported in this immediate window. Current operations remain focused on stabilization and logistics redundancy following the deep strikes on Zatoka and Kostiantynivka.

Information environment / disinformation

The current IO cycle focuses on portraying a lack of long-term viability for Western support and maximizing the perceived intransigence of Kyiv regarding peace negotiations. This aims to:

1. Sow Doubt: TASS reporting on Polish PM Tusk's pessimism regarding the timely use of frozen RF assets for reconstruction attempts to undermine UAF long-term financial optimism (23:33Z).
2. External Escalation: RF war correspondents are utilizing reports on potential future conflict with NATO (23:21Z) to justify current RF military actions and mobilize domestic support.
3. Diplomatic Deadlock: Framing Zelensky's refusal to concede Donbas as the sole roadblock to peace (23:23Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Based on the completion of late-night reconnaissance, RF forces will execute missile or Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting logistics choke points (e.g., Sloviansk area) and energy/industrial targets in the Kryvyi Rih region within the morning hours (00:00Z - 06:00Z 16 DEC). The goal is to maximize shock effect before daylight allows for full UAF damage assessment and logistics correction.

MDCOA (Contested River Crossing): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF ground forces near Peschanoye (Vostok Group) will attempt to expand the bridgehead significantly, potentially initiating a heavy armor crossing of the Gaychur River under the cover of the logistics disruption, aiming to secure a staging area for a sustained drive north/west toward Kryvyi Rih.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements