Archived operational intelligence briefing
DTG: 2025-12-15T22:15Z
| Sector | Current Status | Key Activities / Changes | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donetsk (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk) | CRITICAL THREAT (Imminent Strike) | Status Quo: The immediate kinetic threat against logistics hubs (MLCOA) remains active, though no strike has materialized during this reporting window. | HIGH |
| Zaporizhzhia Oblast | ISR/Strike Preparation (Receded) | Change: Air raid alert cancelled (22:04Z). The immediate strike threat following the UAV track (21:18Z) has passed, but high-level surveillance intent persists. | HIGH |
| Dnipropetrovsk (Peschanoye) | CONTAINMENT EFFORT | DeepState map update implies ongoing tactical adjustments in the theater, potentially relating to containment efforts around the Gaychur River bridgehead. Specific changes unknown (P1 Gap). | MEDIUM |
| Northern/Central Sectors | INTERDICTION PRESSURE | RF IO claims (Anvar unit) of successful strikes near Khrenovka, Klyusy, Gorsk (locations distant from current main effort), suggesting continued pressure/attrition across secondary axes. | LOW |
1. Kinetic Intent (Delayed Execution): The previously predicted, imminent mass kinetic strike against Eastern logistics (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Rodynske) has not yet occurred (expected NLT 00:00Z Dec 16). This delay may indicate RF forces are optimizing launch windows, or are incorporating new targeting data before committing high-value assets. AD assets must remain on high alert status.
2. Southern Threat Reduction (Temporary): The cancellation of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates that the confirmed ISR track did not transition immediately into a kinetic engagement. This suggests the UAV was either for persistent surveillance or part of a feint. The threat remains HIGH for follow-on strikes using data gathered.
3. PSYOPS Targeting Minor Infrastructure: RF claims regarding the "Anvar" special unit operating near Khrenovka, Klyusy, and Gorsk (likely Chernihiv or Northern Poltava/Sumy directions) are aimed at demonstrating operational reach and maintaining psychological pressure across non-main-effort sectors. Given the lack of corroboration, these claims pose a LOW physical threat but a HIGH information threat designed to force UAF resource allocation away from the critical Donetsk and Dnipro sectors.
UAF Air Defense forces demonstrated effective monitoring and alert management in the Southern region, ensuring timely public warning and the subsequent all-clear in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The update by ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms UAF high-fidelity geospatial tracking remains current and active, crucial for timely tactical adjustments.
The Information Environment (IE) is dominated by strategic IO concerning long-term security commitments and Western unity.
1. Strategic Security Guarantees Confirmed (Offensive IO Leverage): The joint European statement on security guarantees, specifically mentioning the possibility of "multinational forces" (Операция Z, 21:41Z; Dempster-Shafer supports belief 0.118889), is a major development. RF IO immediately attempts to frame this not as strength, but as an escalatory step toward NATO direct involvement. This narrative supports the existing RF IO theme that the West intends to prolong the conflict.
2. Amplification of Western War Scare (PSYOPS): RF media and proxies continue to amplify the warnings by senior UK military figures regarding UK readiness for conflict (Оперативний ЗСУ, 21:45Z). This strategic PSYOPS aims to generate fear in NATO capitals and degrade political support for long-term military aid (Dempster-Shafer supports belief 0.001572).
3. EU Unity Deterioration (RF Core Narrative): Hungarian PM Orbán’s threat to sue the EU over asset confiscation (TASS, 21:52Z; Dempster-Shafer supports belief 0.000093) is being leveraged aggressively by RF IO to portray the EU as fragmented and incapable of maintaining a unified front against Moscow policy.
MLCOA (Eastern Logistics Strike Wave - HIGH Confidence): RF forces remain highly likely to execute the pre-staged kinetic strike package against high-value logistics nodes and rail infrastructure in the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Rodynske area before 04:00Z Dec 16. The delay suggests meticulous planning rather than cancellation.
MDCOA (Consolidation and Flank Pressure - MEDIUM Confidence): RF Vostok Group will consolidate gains at the Peschanoye breach, utilizing the cover of the main Eastern strike to interdict UAF counter-attack vectors or expand the bridgehead depth toward Huliaipole. Secondary strikes (like those claimed by Anvar) may be confirmed in the Northern sectors to fix UAF reserves.
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action / Information Need | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | DeepState Map Update Specifics. Determine the exact positional changes reflected in the DeepState update (21:51Z), especially along the Pokrovsk-Peschanoye axes and Siversk, to update current battlefield geometry. | Task IMINT/HUMINT assets for localized BDA/Ground Truth reporting in confirmed areas of change. | NLT 01:00Z Dec 16. |
| P2 (CRITICAL) | Eastern Strike Execution. Confirmation of weapon type, targets struck, and BDA resulting from the anticipated kinetic strikes in the Eastern operational rear. | Task Air Defense (TAD) and IMINT for post-strike analysis of debris and damage assessment (BDA). | NLT 04:00Z Dec 16. |
| P3 (PRIORITY) | Anvar Unit Strike Verification. Confirm or deny the successful RF kinetic strikes claimed by "Anvar" unit near Khrenovka, Klyusy, and Gorsk. | Task HUMINT/OSINT assets in the Northern/Central sectors to verify infrastructure damage or kinetic activity. | NLT 06:00Z Dec 16. |
Actionable Recommendations:
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