Sitrep 2025-12-15 21:35:42

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T21:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep (21:05Z)

(21:06:01, TASS; 21:10:01, RBK-UA; MEDIUM): Multiple sources confirmed former US President Donald Trump stated he recently spoke with RF President Putin, and that he believes a peace agreement for Ukraine is "closer than ever."
(21:08:19, RBK-UA; HIGH): Trump publicly confirmed that the US is actively coordinating with European partners regarding security guarantees for Ukraine.
(21:18:37, UAF AF; HIGH): A new RF UAV track was confirmed operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast near Vilniansk, vectoring in a southwest direction, suggesting sustained ISR coverage of the Southern GLOCs.
(21:27:01, Colonelcassad; MEDIUM): RF sources reported the successful kinetic destruction of a UAF heavy cargo drone ("Baba Yaga") via FPV suicide drone, confirming the high tempo and adaptive nature of RF counter-UAS tactics.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status	Key Activities / Changes	Confidence
Donetsk (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk)	CRITICAL THREAT	Status Quo: Imminent kinetic strikes expected against major rail and logistics hubs (PDR context). No new BDA/strike confirmation yet.	HIGH
Pokrovsk/Rodynske Rear	IMMEDIATE KINETIC THREAT	Status Quo: RF intent to interdict GLOCs supporting intense CQC remains the primary threat vector.	HIGH
Zaporizhzhia Oblast	ACTIVE ISR/Strike Prep	New RF UAV track confirmed near Vilniansk, vectoring SW, indicating persistent surveillance of UAF rear area supporting Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro defenses.	HIGH
Dnipropetrovsk (Peschanoye)	CONTAINMENT EFFORT	Status Quo: UAF continues efforts to seal the breach over the Gaychur River (PDR context). No new maneuver updates.	HIGH

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority: The immediate kinetic threat remains focused on executing the coordinated strike package against the Eastern logistical rear (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Rodynske) identified in the previous sitrep. The time elapsed since the initial UAV detection (20:39Z) suggests strikes are imminent (NLT 00:00Z Dec 16).

2. Counter-UAS Adaptations: The confirmed destruction of a UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy bomber drone by an FPV asset (Colonelcassad, 21:27Z) demonstrates high RF capability in the counter-UAS domain. This specific tactic mitigates the high cost of traditional air defense systems against lower-value, slow-moving heavy drones and requires UAF operators to immediately adjust night-time flying tactics and routes.

3. Southern ISR Sustained: The UAV track in Zaporizhzhia near Vilniansk (21:18Z) confirms RF intent to maintain intelligence coverage of the Southern operational area, potentially supporting future deep strikes against power generation or C2 nodes in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia area, or tracking UAF reserve movements intended to counter the Peschanoye breach.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Force (AF) demonstrated effective real-time tracking and reporting, enabling localized alerts for the Zaporizhzhia threat corridor. UAF deep-strike capability remains a high-value threat to the RF rear, evidenced by the need for RF forces to prioritize counter-UAS measures against UAF heavy drones.

Information environment / disinformation

The political domain is currently dominating the IE, directly impacting strategic perception of UAF resilience.

1. High-Level Diplomatic Pressure (Confirmed Contact): The confirmation of communication between Trump and Putin, alongside Trump's public assertion that a peace agreement is "closer," significantly amplifies the RF Information Operations (IO) narrative that the conflict is unwinnable for Ukraine and that Western support is driving a settlement agenda (Dempster-Shafer belief supports Mediation Effort by US 0.002374). This narrative aims to degrade domestic morale and political unity in Kyiv.

2. Strategic Dialogue Validation: The TASS report regarding US/Ukraine working groups possibly meeting in Miami validates the active pursuit of the US security guarantee mechanism previously reported. This counters RF IO that attempts to portray US involvement as wavering or merely rhetorical.

3. Escalation Amplification: RF IO sources (Operatsiya Z, 21:09Z) are actively promoting statements by senior UK military figures warning of the need for UK citizens to prepare for conflict with Russia. This is a common RF strategic IO theme designed to generate fear in NATO capitals and discourage prolonged military aid commitments.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Targeted Destruction of Eastern Logistics - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will initiate kinetic strikes, likely using Shahed-136 or missile systems, targeting the pre-identified rail junctions, C2 nodes, and major supply points in the Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Rodynske area. This strike wave is expected between 22:00Z and 04:00Z.

MDCOA (Exploitation Maneuver - MEDIUM Confidence): Following successful logistics interdiction, RF forces will immediately seek to exploit anticipated supply degradation by intensifying ground assaults along the Siversk axis and increasing pressure on UAF forces engaged in CQC in Pokrovsk. The success of the kinetic strike dictates the scale and immediate commitment of reserves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action / Information Need	Confidence
P1 (CRITICAL)	Sloviansk/Kramatorsk Targeting Intent. Determine the specific targets (rail infrastructure, fuel depots, Class V) of the current UAV vectoring to estimate the damage scale on logistical capacity.	Task IMINT/HUMINT assets for BDA on affected rail nodes.	NLT 04:00Z Dec 16.
P2 (URGENT)	Kherson Power Attack Weapon ID. Determine the weapon system responsible for the Kherson power outages to update AD engagement protocols for urban infrastructure protection along the Dnipro line.	Task Tactical Air Defense (TAD) assets to analyze debris/engagement data.	NLT 01:00Z Dec 16.
P4 (PRIORITY)	Huliaipole Maneuver Commitment. Quantify the mechanized elements committed to the advance toward Huliaipole from the Peschanoye breach to assess the depth and sustainability of the penetration.	Task IMINT/SAR to assess RF deployment density in the triangle Peschanoye-Huliaipole.	NLT 06:00Z Dec 16.
P5 (NEW - URGENT)	RF FPV Counter-UAS TTPs. Assess the operational effectiveness and frequency of RF FPV counter-UAS strikes (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) to develop immediate tactical countermeasures.	Task J3/J5 for TTP analysis and dissemination of new operational guidelines for heavy drone deployment.	NLT 12:00Z Dec 16.

Actionable Recommendations:

Air Defense Re-tasking (OC East/South): Immediately reinforce Air Defense coverage for all major rail and storage facilities within a 50km radius of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Simultaneously, establish an immediate alert status for the Vilniansk/Zaporizhzhia corridor to preempt potential kinetic follow-up to the confirmed UAV track.
UAS Counter-Measures (OC East/South): Immediately disseminate tactical instructions to UAF drone units, particularly those operating heavy cargo/bombing platforms ("Baba Yaga"), focusing on route diversity, altitude adjustments, and incorporating electronic countermeasures (ECM) to disrupt RF FPV guidance systems, mitigating the P5 threat.
Strategic Communications (J7/MFA): Prepare and execute a comprehensive communication strategy to counter the RF narrative derived from the Trump/Putin interaction, stressing UAF non-negotiable prerequisites (territorial integrity, reparations) and emphasizing the concrete nature of ongoing US/European security guarantee negotiations (Miami).

Situation Report