Sitrep 2025-12-15 21:05:45

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T21:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep (20:35Z)

(20:39:53Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New RF UAV tracks confirmed operating deep into Donetsk Oblast, specifically vectoring toward the critical logistical hubs of Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, indicating immediate kinetic intent against the Eastern theater rear.
(20:55:32Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Additional UAV track detected targeting the immediate rear of the Pokrovsk axis, moving toward Rodynske, confirming RF intent to interdict GLOCs and C2 nodes supporting forces engaged in Close Quarters Combat (CQC).
(20:53:41Z, MVA, HIGH): Kherson Military-Civilian Administration (MVA) confirmed electricity supply disruptions and power outages within Kherson Hromada, confirming successful RF kinetic action against critical infrastructure on the Dnipro River line.
(20:40:22Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH): US reportedly offered security guarantees to Ukraine (WSJ analysis), introducing a significant strategic variable aimed at breaking the perceived diplomatic 'deadlock' ahead of proposed high-level discussions.
(20:57:18Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): RF sources reported a "massive nighttime drone attack" on occupied Donetsk (DPR), suggesting continued high-tempo UAF deep strike operations against RF C2/staging areas.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status	Key Activities / Changes	Confidence
Donetsk (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk)	CRITICAL THREAT	New RF UAV tracks indicate imminent precision strike against major rail and Class V logistics hubs supporting UAF forces in the Eastern sector.	HIGH
Pokrovsk/Rodynske Rear	IMMEDIATE KINETIC THREAT	UAV track toward Rodynske confirms RF effort to suppress UAF logistics/C2 supporting the intense fighting in Pokrovsk.	HIGH
Kherson Oblast (Dnipro Line)	ACTIVE ISR/Strike	Power outages confirmed in Kherson Hromada, likely resulting from targeted strike action simultaneous with ongoing RF reconnaissance UAV activity (Myrne/Tavriyske).	HIGH
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia	High Alert (Contained)	Previous high-threat UAV saturation (Dnipro City/Nikopol) has momentarily ceased kinetic follow-up, likely diverting assets to the high-value Donetsk rear.	HIGH (Analytic Judgment)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority Shift (Donetsk Rear): RF forces have rapidly shifted the focus of deep kinetic preparation from Dnipropetrovsk (Dnipro City/Nikopol) to the operational rear of the Donetsk axis (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, Rodynske). This move prioritizes paralyzing UAF logistical capacity (Class III/V supply) supporting the Pokrovsk and Siversk axes, which are under maximum pressure. This confirms the RF strategy of Coordinated Logistical Strangulation.

2. Asymmetric Targeting (Kherson): The confirmed power disruption in Kherson Hromada demonstrates the continued use of standoff precision fires or loitering munitions to degrade essential civil infrastructure, maintaining pressure on UAF forces managing the contact line and taxing civilian recovery efforts.

3. Command and Control (C2) Adaptations: The rapid change in targeting priority suggests RF C2 is exercising flexible asset allocation, leveraging real-time ISR data to identify the highest value targets within the Decisive Engagement Zone (DEZ). The current intent is to sever the last major rail/road GLOCs before UAF can implement full tertiary route redundancy (Recommendation from PDR).

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Force (AF) demonstrated effective real-time tracking and reporting of RF deep ISR/Strike assets, enabling localized alerts. UAF deep strike capability remains viable, evidenced by RF reports of a mass drone attack on occupied Donetsk (DPR).

Strategic Alignment: UAF is managing intense external diplomatic pressure. The emergence of US security guarantee proposals concurrent with EU legal obligations requires UAF leadership to ensure these offers meet Kyiv's non-negotiable prerequisites (territorial integrity, financed reparations) before engaging in substantial negotiations.

Information environment / disinformation

1. US Mediation Narrative Dominance: RF Information Operations (IO) are exploiting the reported US offer of security guarantees as confirmation of a military 'deadlock' (Operatsiya Z), attempting to frame US involvement as a forced push toward settlement. This aims to undermine UAF confidence in achieving favorable military outcomes.

2. Strategic Financial IO: Ukrainian media (RBK-UA) linked "progress in peace talks" to global gold price fluctuations. This narrative reinforces the perceived high stakes and market instability associated with diplomatic ambiguity, placing pressure on political leadership to manage expectations regarding a settlement timeline.

3. EU Security Guarantee Undermining: TASS confirmation of EU leaders' readiness to provide legal protection commitments acts as a counter-narrative to RF IO attempting to portray Western commitment as weak or purely rhetorical.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Targeted Destruction of Eastern Logistics - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will initiate kinetic strikes, likely using Shahed-136/KAB/Missile systems, targeting the identified rail junctions, C2 nodes, and major supply points serving Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Rodynske. These strikes will aim to incapacitate logistical flow for the UAF Joint Forces Command East.

MDCOA (Simultaneous Breakthrough Attempt - MEDIUM Confidence): If the logistical strikes are successful, RF forces will immediately seek to exploit the anticipated supply degradation by launching concentrated armored assaults on the Siversk axis (where the situation is already reported as deteriorating) and a renewed push toward Pokrovsk, capitalizing on the paralysis of the UAF rear area.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action / Information Need	Confidence
P1 (CRITICAL)	Sloviansk/Kramatorsk Targeting Intent. Determine the specific targets (rail infrastructure, fuel depots, Class V) of the current UAV vectoring to estimate the damage scale on logistical capacity.	Task IMINT/HUMINT assets for BDA on affected rail nodes.	NLT 04:00Z Dec 16.
P2 (URGENT)	Kherson Power Attack Weapon ID. Determine the weapon system responsible for the Kherson power outages to update AD engagement protocols for urban infrastructure protection along the Dnipro line.	Task Tactical Air Defense (TAD) assets to analyze debris/engagement data.	NLT 01:00Z Dec 16.
P3 (CRITICAL)	Novorossiysk Submarine BDA. Determine the actual damage assessment to RF vessels/infrastructure in Novorossiysk.	Task IMINT/HUMINT assets for verification.	NLT 08:00Z Dec 16.
P4 (PRIORITY)	Huliaipole Maneuver Commitment. Quantify the mechanized elements committed to the advance toward Huliaipole from the Peschanoye breach to assess the depth and sustainability of the penetration.	Task IMINT/SAR to assess RF deployment density in the triangle Peschanoye-Huliaipole.	NLT 06:00Z Dec 16.

Actionable Recommendations:

Logistics Diversion (J4/OC East): Immediately halt high-volume Class I/III/V material movement through all rail nodes in the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk area until NLT 06:00Z Dec 16. Initiate contingency road convoys utilizing tertiary routes and dispersal techniques to mitigate the anticipated kinetic strike effects (P1 CR).
Air Defense Re-tasking (OC East): Re-task dedicated AD assets from less critical zones to reinforce the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk region and the approaches to Rodynske to intercept the confirmed RF deep-strike UAV wave. Prioritize the protection of fuel and ammunition depots (Class III/V).
Infrastructure Hardening (OC South): Task Kherson MVA and supporting UAF engineering units to immediately assess and initiate temporary repairs for critical power infrastructure and implement rapid countermeasures against sustained drone/artillery suppression.

Situation Report