Sitrep 2025-12-15 20:35:20

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T20:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep (20:05Z)

(20:04:57Z, UAF AF, HIGH): RF forces conducted immediate, follow-on Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reiterated strikes against Donetsk Oblast, confirming kinetic exploitation of recent ISR.
(20:06:22Z, 20:08:07Z, 20:34:13Z, UAF AF, HIGH): RF UAV activity escalated into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with tracks observed from TOT Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia directed toward Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Nikopol district, and finally Dnipro City. This confirms targeting of high-value infrastructure and major urban centers.
(20:24:33Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A new UAV track was detected in Kharkiv Oblast moving toward the Barvinkove area, expanding the Southern Kharkiv reconnaissance sweep previously reported.
(20:15:39Z, Bryansk Gov, HIGH): RF forces claimed to have destroyed 10 UAF aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast within a three-hour period, indicating continued UAF deep strike/ISR efforts against RF territory and critical infrastructure.
(20:25:30Z-20:29:59Z, TASS/Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH): Strategic information environment dominated by commentary from former US President Trump, suggesting settlement is "closer than ever" and announcing potential high-level discussions (phone calls to Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin, followed by US/UA meetings in Miami).

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status	Key Activities / Changes	Confidence
Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk	High Kinetic Threat	Confirmed repeated KAB strikes. Follow-on strikes are exploiting recent ISR data collected over GLOCs and staging areas.	HIGH
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	Critical ISR Activity	RF reconnaissance/strike UAVs are rapidly vectoring towards high-value targets: Dnipro City, and the vulnerable Nikopol district (across the Kakhovka Reservoir line).	HIGH
Kharkiv Oblast (South)	Expanding Reconnaissance	RF UAV activity is extending westward, now tracked toward Barvinkove. This suggests a broader effort to detect logistics flowing toward the Pokrovsk axis.	HIGH
Luhansk (Siversk Area)	Persistent Heavy Contact	Bilohorivka remains under severe kinetic pressure, consistent with the reported deterioration of the Siversk sector (PDR context).	MEDIUM
Deep Rear (RF Territory)	Active UAF Interdiction	RF reports confirm UAF deep-strike persistence, with at least 10 UAVs engaged and reportedly destroyed over Bryansk Oblast.	HIGH

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Exploitation Synchronization: RF forces immediately leveraged the extensive multi-vector UAV ISR sweeps reported in the previous sitrep (Kharkiv) and are now expanding them into Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopol, Dnipro City). This ISR is rapidly followed by KAB launches (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk). This high-tempo cycle indicates an intent to achieve Decide-Target-Engage timelines faster than UAF C2 cycles, aiming for continuous attrition of UAF logistics and C2 nodes.

2. Threat to Dnipro City and Nikopol: The multiple UAV tracks converging on Dnipro City and Nikopol District represent an elevated threat.

Dnipro City: Potential targeting of strategic infrastructure (rail, C2, critical industrial capacity).
Nikopol: Reconnaissance is likely preparatory for intense artillery or deep strike suppression against UAF positions and crossing points along the Dnipro River front, concurrent with operations along the Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary (Peschanoye breach).

3. Intent in Deep Rear: The claimed mass interception of 10 UAF UAVs over Bryansk suggests UAF is maintaining a high operational tempo against military and industrial targets deep inside RF territory, likely seeking to fix RF air defense assets or degrade logistical sustainment for frontline forces.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Strategic Alignment and Negotiating Posture: UAF leadership (KMVA) continues to refine the strategic negotiating position, emphasizing three key requirements:

Territorial Integrity: Acknowledging differences with Russia but maintaining a firm stance on territorial issues.
Guarantees: Prioritizing clear, defined security guarantees before tactical steps on the battlefield.
Compensation/Financing: Establishing a clear source of financing for reconstruction, specifically highlighting the necessity of reparation credit mechanisms (supported by Germany's high-stakes warning to the EU). This confirms UAF is integrating strategic financial leverage into diplomatic planning.

Frontline Operations: UAF continues localized resistance and extraction operations in heavily contested areas such as Bilohorivka, demonstrating tactical endurance despite severe kinetic effects. UAF Deep Strike capabilities remain operational, confirmed by RF counter-UAV activity in Bryansk.

Information environment / disinformation

1. US Mediation Narrative Dominance: The primary shift is the abrupt influx of US political commentary (Trump), placing immediate emphasis on settlement and mediation. This narrative, amplified by both Russian (TASS) and Ukrainian media, introduces high uncertainty into the security framework timeline. The proposed US mediation structure (direct calls, Miami meeting) positions the US as the principal arbiter.

2. RF Counter-Guarantee IO: RF channels (Colonelcassad) are actively disseminating highly biased narratives mocking the EU security guarantee proposals, characterizing the multinational presence as destined for military defeat ("corpses"). This aims to undermine confidence in the collective Western security commitment.

3. Financial Pressure IO: Germany's explicit warning that the EU risks its financial stability if it fails to support a Ukraine reparation loan (leveraging frozen RF assets) creates internal diplomatic pressure within the EU, which RF IO will attempt to exploit to showcase Western disunity.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike and Penetration - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will execute precision strikes, likely utilizing high-explosive drones (Shahed) or missile systems, against targets identified in the current Dnipropetrovsk ISR sweep (e.g., logistical nodes near Dnipro City, UAF forward positions in Nikopol district). Concurrently, RF will attempt to expand the kinetic footprint toward Barvinkove to stress UAF logistics feeding the Eastern axis.

MDCOA (Strategic Diplomatic Shock - MEDIUM Confidence): Following the announced high-level calls, a public statement or initial "peace plan" proposal could emerge from the US side. Given the KMVA's acknowledged difference with Russia on territories, any US proposal not fully aligned with Ukrainian territorial integrity principles could create immediate strategic friction, potentially forcing UAF diplomatic resources to shift focus from security guarantees to managing territorial expectations.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action / Information Need	Confidence
P1 (CRITICAL)	Dnipropetrovsk Targeting Intent. Determine the specific targets of the UAV tracks (Dnipro City, Nikopol) to predict the immediate kinetic follow-up (i.e., C2/fuel depots vs. localized AD suppression).	Task J2/J3 EW and AD assets to analyze RF C2 traffic accompanying UAV flights and assess flight profiles.	NLT 00:00Z Dec 16.
P2 (CRITICAL)	Novorossiysk Submarine BDA. (Unchanged) Resolve the IO conflict. Determine the actual damage assessment to RF vessels/infrastructure in Novorossiysk.	Task IMINT/HUMINT assets for verification.	NLT 08:00Z Dec 16.
P3 (URGENT)	Huliaipole Maneuver Commitment. Quantify the mechanized elements committed to the advance toward Huliaipole and identify the proximity of RF heavy artillery supporting the push from the Gaychur bridgehead. (Unchanged, linked to P1 above)	Task IMINT/SAR to assess RF deployment density in the triangle Peschanoye-Huliaipole.	NLT 06:00Z Dec 16.
P4 (PRIORITY)	Barvinkove Threat Assessment. Determine if the UAV track toward Barvinkove is ISR preparatory for kinetic strike or solely route-testing for future GLOC interdiction operations.	Task UAF units in Barvinkove area to increase local sensor coverage and readiness for KAB/missile strike.	NLT 02:00Z Dec 16.

Actionable Recommendations:

Air Defense Re-posture (OC Center/OC South): Immediately reinforce Air Defense (AD) density around critical infrastructure in Dnipro City and deploy dedicated Counter-UAV/EW teams to the Nikopol district to mitigate the immediate threat identified by RF reconnaissance saturation (P1 CR).
Logistics Hardening (J4/OC East): Given the expanded ISR sweep toward Barvinkove, adjust Class III/V logistics routes utilizing this hub to minimize concentration, increase dispersal, and implement electronic signature management measures immediately.
Diplomatic Steering (MOD/J1): Prepare comprehensive talking points for US engagement (Miami) that explicitly define the non-negotiable status of territorial integrity and emphasize the immediate necessity of clear security guarantees and a functioning, funded reparation mechanism as prerequisites for any future settlement discussion.

Situation Report