Sitrep 2025-12-15 20:05:20

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T20:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep (19:35Z)

(20:01Z, UAF AF, HIGH): RF reconnaissance UAV activity detected and engaged in Kherson Oblast, initially targeting Bohdanivka before shifting trajectory toward Naddniprianske.
(19:56Z, UAF AF, HIGH): UAF detected multiple, concurrent RF UAV tracks across Southern Kharkiv Oblast (Savintsi, Balakliia, Krasnopavlivka, Zlatopil), indicating an escalation in RF ISR/strike preparation and likely saturation tactics.
(19:59Z, UAF Official, HIGH): Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed high-level, positive meetings with the US team (Witkoff/Kushner) resulting in the removal of "destructive elements" from new document drafts regarding security and negotiation frameworks.
(19:56Z, UAF Source, HIGH): Europe formally presented a security guarantee plan for Ukraine, focusing on multinational forces and the path toward EU accession.
(19:35Z, RF MoD, HIGH IO CONFLICT): RF MoD formally reiterated its denial of any UAF strike success against an RF submarine in the Novorossiysk naval base.
(19:40Z, RF Source, MEDIUM): Confirmed use of the Russian NRTK "Kuryer" Ground Robotic Complex (UGV) in the Zone of Special Military Operation (SVO), indicating RF continued integration of unmanned ground systems.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status	Key Activities / Changes	Confidence
Kharkiv Oblast (South/East)	Kinetic Threat Escalation	Shift from single-vector threat (Merefa) to multiple, dispersed UAV tracks (Zlatopil, Savintsi, Balakliia, Krasnopavlivka). Implies planned saturation or widespread target scouting.	HIGH
Kherson Oblast (Dnipro River)	ISR Activity Confirmed	New RF reconnaissance UAV activity, dynamically tracking toward Bohdanivka and Naddniprianske. UAF AD countermeasures engaged.	HIGH
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Border	Bridgehead Consolidation	Status unchanged; RF IO continues to reinforce the "Battle for Huliaipole" narrative.	MEDIUM
Information Domain (Strategic)	High-Level Diplomatic Progress	US/European security guarantee proposals actively being refined; Ukraine successfully eliminated "destructive" clauses in draft US documents.	HIGH
Deep Rear (RF/Black Sea)	BDA Gap Maintained	RF MoD vigorously maintains denial of Novorossiysk submarine damage (P2 Gap).	HIGH

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Multi-Vector UAV Saturation (Kharkiv): RF forces are attempting to broaden the kinetic threat footprint across Southern Kharkiv Oblast. The simultaneous deployment of UAVs toward Zlatopil, Savintsi, Balakliia, and Krasnopavlivka (critical GLOC intersections and staging areas) is an attempt to saturate UAF Air Defense capabilities and fix AD assets across a wider area.

2. Tactical Technology Integration: The confirmed presence of the NRTK "Kuryer" UGV complex (Colonelcassad, 19:40Z) signals RF intent to enhance forward reconnaissance, mine clearance, and potentially last-mile logistics without risking personnel. While the immediate tactical impact is likely localized, the capability confirms adaptation to reduce casualties in the immediate contact zone.

3. Intent in Kherson: The dedicated reconnaissance UAV flight path toward Bohdanivka and Naddniprianske, followed by engagement by UAF AD assets, suggests RF forces are conducting targeted intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) against UAF positions and logistics on the Right Bank of the Dnipro River. This activity is likely preparatory for artillery or deep strike operations.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Strategic Alignment Progress: UAF political leadership achieved critical progress in diplomatic engagements in Berlin and with the US delegation:

US Document Refinement: President Zelenskyy's statement confirms the US engagement is leading to concrete document changes, specifically removing "destructive elements" from drafts concerning security guarantees and future negotiations (Zelenskiy, 19:59Z). This reinforces the Ukrainian position of prioritizing dignity and long-term security.
European Security Framework: Europe's formal presentation of a security guarantee plan, incorporating multinational forces and a path to EU accession, builds strategic depth and confirms allied intent to sustain Ukraine's security posture (RBK, 19:56Z).

Operational Readiness: UAF AD elements demonstrated timely detection and response to the emerging deep ISR threat in Kherson Oblast (UAF AF, 20:01Z), confirming high readiness in the Southern operational area.

Information environment / disinformation

The primary IO effort remains focused on managing RF internal and external perceptions of competence and vulnerability:

Strategic Denial: RF MoD's immediate and persistent denial of the Novorossiysk submarine strike (P2 Gap) is a classic crisis IO tactic designed to maintain strategic control of the narrative regarding the safety of the Black Sea Fleet.
Narrative Conflict: Disagreement among RF sources regarding the viability of the Kupyansk objective ("Was there a boy?") suggests internal friction or a lack of credible ground reporting to support the aggressive state-backed IO campaign regarding claimed advances.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Interdiction - HIGH Confidence): RF air and missile forces will leverage the extensive UAV ISR data gathered in Southern Kharkiv Oblast (Zlatopil, Balakliia/Krasnopavlivka) to launch follow-on precision strikes (likely KAB or OTRK) targeting logistics hubs, supply columns, and C2 nodes feeding the Pokrovsk axis. This is synchronized with the continued ground pressure toward Huliaipole (P3 CR).

MDCOA (Air Defense Overmatch - MEDIUM Confidence): The simultaneous, multi-vector UAV deployment could be a deliberate feint designed to exhaust UAF short-range AD resources in Kharkiv. Following the anticipated reduction in localized AD effectiveness, RF fixed-wing aircraft (Su-34/Su-35) will conduct a mass KAB raid targeting a critical, high-value infrastructure site (e.g., a large fuel depot or repair facility) in the Kharkiv deep rear.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action / Information Need
P1 (CRITICAL)	Kharkiv UAV Primary Target Assessment. Determine the priority target areas identified by the multiple RF UAV tracks (Zlatopil, Savintsi, Balakliia, Krasnopavlivka). Is the primary focus GLOC interdiction, or C2/staging areas?	Task J2/J3 fusion cell to cross-reference UAV tracks with known UAF critical nodes (fuel, ammo, C2). Refine AD deployment posture. NLT 23:00Z Dec 15.
P2 (CRITICAL)	Novorossiysk Submarine BDA. Resolve the IO conflict. Determine the actual damage assessment to RF vessels/infrastructure in Novorossiysk.	Task IMINT/HUMINT assets for verification. (No change from previous sitrep) NLT 08:00Z Dec 16.
P3 (URGENT)	Huliaipole Maneuver Commitment. Quantify the mechanized elements committed to the advance toward Huliaipole and identify the proximity of RF heavy artillery supporting the push from the Gaychur bridgehead.	Task IMINT/SAR to assess RF deployment density in the triangle Peschanoye-Huliaipole. (No change) NLT 06:00Z Dec 16.
P4 (PRIORITY)	Myrnohrad Status. Confirm the security and disposition of UAF forces in Myrnohrad and verify if RF forces are operating in proximity, or if the RF claim of "encirclement" is pure disinformation.	Task UAF units in Pokrovsk AO to confirm tactical geometry south of Pokrovsk. (No change) NLT 22:00Z Dec 15.

Actionable Recommendations:

Air Defense Re-prioritization (OC East/J3): Given the shift to saturation tactics in Southern Kharkiv (P1 CR), immediately reinforce Very Short Range Air Defense (VSHORAD) along the specific GLOCs intersecting Balakliia and Krasnopavlivka. Utilize passive measures (electronic silence, decoys) in high-value staging areas to mitigate the effects of the initial UAV ISR sweep.
Kherson River Bank Protection (OC South): Increase counter-UAV measures, including electronic warfare (EW) and localized AD, around potential river crossing points and forward defensive positions near Bohdanivka and Naddniprianske to preempt preparatory strikes based on the confirmed RF reconnaissance activity.
Strategic Negotiation Guidance (MOD/J1): Leverage the confirmed removal of "destructive elements" from the US document drafts to maintain a unified and firm diplomatic front in subsequent security guarantee discussions with all European partners. The removal signifies internal US alignment with core Ukrainian security principles.

Situation Report