Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T19:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (18:59Z, UAF AF, HIGH): CRITICAL maritime threat detected. A UAV/Shahed launched from the Black Sea aquatory is tracking toward Zatoka (Odesa Oblast), indicating an immediate RF attempt to conduct a follow-up strike on the critical bridge infrastructure.
• (18:35Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A deep-penetration UAV threat has emerged from Sumy Oblast, now tracking toward Kotelva (Poltava Oblast), demonstrating RF intent to strike logistics or infrastructure deep behind the Eastern front line.
• (18:39Z, UAF AF, HIGH): RF forces continued their Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) campaign, with new launches confirmed targeting Donetsk Oblast.
• (18:35Z, 18:40Z, RF Sources, MEDIUM/HIGH): Multiple RF channels confirm the priority effort remains the consolidation and expansion of the Gaychur River bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast incursion), specifically reporting pressure toward Huliaipole (East Zaporizhzhia).
• (18:56Z, UAF AF, HIGH): The aerial threat remains sustained in Kharkiv Oblast, with a UAV/Shahed detected tracking from the North toward Vilshany/Stary Merchyk, suggesting continued ISR or strike planning against Western GLOCs out of Kharkiv city.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority: Immediate Follow-up Strike on Odesa GLOC (CRITICAL) The detected UAV heading toward Zatoka (18:59Z) indicates high RF tactical synchronicity. Having successfully damaged the bridge previously, the RF is immediately attempting a secondary strike to ensure the target is rendered non-operational or catastrophically damaged. This effort aims to permanently sever the major southwestern supply route into the Southern Operational Area.

2. Deep Rear Interdiction Expansion (Poltava) The shift of the Northern UAV vector from near-front logistics (Sumy) to deep logistics in Poltava Oblast (Kotelva, 18:35Z) confirms that RF forces are leveraging their aerial assets to complicate UAF resource mobilization across multiple regions simultaneously. This forces UAF Air Defense (AD) to defend highly dispersed, low-value targets alongside critical infrastructure.

3. Operational Consolidation in the South-East RF reporting surrounding the Gaychur bridgehead (18:35Z, 18:40Z) signals that the Vostok Grouping considers this new breach a strategic success and is prioritizing resource allocation to secure the river crossing. The immediate pressure toward Huliaipole confirms the operational intent to turn the flank of the main Zaporizhzhia defensive line.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Effective Air Threat Identification: UAF Air Force continues to maintain a HIGH level of detection and tracking effectiveness across multiple, rapidly evolving vectors (Sumy/Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa/Black Sea). 2. Sustained Diplomatic Activity: President Zelenskyy's stated belief that "the coming days may decide much and bring us closer to peace" (18:41Z), in context with the upcoming conversation with Trump and EU leaders (18:42Z), confirms UAF strategic command is maintaining political momentum despite the simultaneous kinetic escalation.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF Information Environment (IE) is focused on two primary lines of effort:

1. Framing Operational Success: High-profile, repeated messaging regarding the "Плацдарм за Гайчуром" aims to solidify the perception of a major breakthrough in the South-East and demoralize UAF forces holding the line near Huliaipole.
2. Anti-Western Provocation: Foreign Minister Lavrov continues to use highly aggressive and derogatory language toward Europe and the West (likening Europe to an "F-student doctor," 18:38Z, 19:01Z). This rhetoric is designed to reinforce internal support and preemptively counter positive messaging resulting from the Zelenskyy/Trump/EU diplomatic talks. The IO surrounding the alleged mistranslation of "troops" as "corpses" (18:48Z) is a deliberate attempt to portray UAF leadership and Western support as incompetent or ghoulish.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike and Tactical Consolidation - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will attempt to conduct kinetic strikes NLT 23:00Z using the detected UAVs targeting Zatoka (Odesa) and Kotelva (Poltava). Simultaneously, RF Vostok Grouping will launch localized armor-supported attacks from the Gaychur bridgehead toward Huliaipole, utilizing artillery mass generated by the recent 260th GRAU surge to fix UAF reserves.

MDCOA (Operational Breakthrough via Huliaipole - MEDIUM Confidence): If UAF AD fails to mitigate the synchronized strikes against the Odesa GLOC and the deep Poltava target, RF forces will attempt to leverage the logistical degradation to enable a rapid, mechanized expansion of the Gaychur bridgehead, aiming to seize Huliaipole and threaten the operational rear of the Donetsk defenses from the South.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations:

1. Air Defense Redundancy (OC South): Immediately reinforce Air Defense coverage for the Zatoka Bridge and Odesa port infrastructure. Pre-deploy rapid repair and fire suppression teams to the area of the bridge in anticipation of a confirmed strike (P1, HIGH confidence kinetic event).
2. AD Vector Adjustment (OC Center/North): Re-task medium-range AD assets currently covering Sumy border zones to cover the Kotelva (Poltava) vector. Prioritize the protection of the largest known fuel/munitions storage sites in the Poltava region.
3. Counter-Reconnaissance (OC East/South): Initiate focused EW and counter-UAV measures along the approach routes to Huliaipole to disrupt RF ISR supporting the Gaychur bridgehead expansion. Identify and pre-target known RF heavy artillery positions supporting the advance.