Sitrep 2025-12-15 18:34:53

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T18:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

(18:15Z, 18:29Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Confirmed geographic expansion of the RF Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) threat. Strikes recorded targeting Kharkiv Oblast from both Northern and Eastern vectors. This shifts the priority threat zone beyond the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border.
(18:14Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): The unidentified Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) threat in Sumy Oblast is tracking towards critical logistics and population centers, specifically Trostianets/Okhtyrka.
(18:17Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF Ministry of Defence claimed Zapad Group of Forces exercises "reliable control over all districts of liberated Kupyansk," directly contradicting UAF reports of localized probing/resistance in the sector. This is assessed as an Information Operation (IO) supporting RF consolidation efforts.
(18:11Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Confirmed kinetic incident over the Black Sea: Turkey’s MoD utilized an F-16 fighter jet to shoot down an unidentified UAV approaching its airspace boundary. This indicates severe regional escalation risk in the maritime domain.
(18:12Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): A new Shahed/UAV vector detected in Northwestern Kharkiv Oblast, tracking southeast/southwest, compounding the aerial threat in the Kharkiv region already targeted by KABs.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status	Key Activities / Changes	Confidence
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk/NE)	CRITICAL Aerial Escalation	Confirmed KAB strikes from two vectors (North/East, 18:15Z, 18:29Z). UAV/Shahed variant detected NW heading SE/SW (18:12Z). This synchronizes air interdiction with ground pressure (RF claims Kupyansk control, 18:17Z).	HIGH
Sumy Oblast (Northern Flank)	Active Strike/ISR Threat	Previously identified northern UAV vector refined; inbound toward Trostianets/Okhtyrka (18:14Z). Targets suggest intent to strike logistics/infrastructure supporting the Eastern Group (OC North).	HIGH
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Border	Air Interdiction Sustained	KAB strikes reported in the previous sitrep (17:47Z) remain the primary threat, focusing on GLOC interdiction following the Peschanoye breach (Daily Report context). No new confirmed strikes in this reporting period.	HIGH
Black Sea/Maritime	Strategic Tension Escalated	Turkey confirms F-16 engagement of an unidentified UAV near the airspace boundary. Indicates active use of long-range aerial assets (ISR or Strike) in international waters near NATO flank.	HIGH
Kupyansk (Ground)	Contested/IO Focus	RF claims "reliable control" (18:17Z). This directly targets the UAF narrative of effective defense/probing in the area (17:55Z sitrep). High IO activity masking likely attrition fighting.	MEDIUM

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority: KAB Campaign Expansion (CRITICAL) The most immediate operational change is the RF expansion of the KAB glide bomb campaign to Kharkiv Oblast. This demonstrates that RF forces possess the aviation and munition reserves necessary to conduct sustained, high-lethality air interdiction across multiple axes simultaneously (Vostok/Southern GLOCs AND North-Eastern front supply lines).

Assessment: The synchronized KAB threat in Kharkiv (18:15Z, 18:29Z) suggests RF intent to prevent UAF redeployment of Northern reserves southward to the critical Peschanoye/Pokrovsk breach zone.

2. Intensified Reconnaissance and Strike Preparation (Northern/NE Axes) The identified flight path of the UAV in Sumy (targeting Trostianets/Okhtyrka) and the new UAV vector in Northwestern Kharkiv Oblast (18:12Z) confirms the enemy is conducting detailed ISR of UAF deep rear infrastructure in preparation for follow-on strikes. This supports the MLCOA of coordinated strangulation by diversifying target sets and complicating UAF Air Defense (AD) tasking.

3. Maritime Domain Risk The Turkish F-16 engagement over the Black Sea (18:11Z) highlights the continued, highly aggressive use of UAVs (likely RF long-range ISR or possible UAF strike platforms) operating near sensitive international airspace.

4. RF IO and Command Posturing RF channels (MoD Russia, 18:17Z) are aggressively leveraging the narrative of tactical success, specifically claiming the full "liberation" and control of Kupyansk. This psychological operation aims to degrade morale in the face of the KAB threat and legitimize tactical gains.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Sustained AD Alertness: UAF Air Force (AFU) maintained high vigilance, successfully identifying and tracking multiple UAV/KAB threats across Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, enabling timely alert dissemination (18:12Z, 18:14Z, 18:15Z).

2. Diplomatic Stability: The imminent conversation between President Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, and European leaders regarding a peace agreement (18:20Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms the UAF maintains a strong strategic diplomatic track despite heightened kinetic pressure.

3. Strategic Environment Control: Turkish action over the Black Sea, regardless of the UAV’s origin, provides a strategic benefit by reinforcing NATO/Turkish control over critical Black Sea sea lanes and airspace, complicating RF deep maneuver/ISR capability projection westward.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is currently attempting to simultaneously frame the ongoing high-stakes diplomacy as a Western failure while masking operational difficulties:

Diplomatic Framing: RF channels amplified the news of the upcoming peace talks (18:20Z) while Europe proposed a Christmas ceasefire appeal to Putin (18:12Z). This suggests RF is positioning itself as the reasonable party willing to negotiate, even while escalating kinetics.
Operational Denial/Exaggeration: The RF MoD claim of controlling "all districts" of Kupyansk (18:17Z) is a direct, high-level attempt to counteract reports of UAF resistance and local effectiveness.
RF Internal Narrative: Lavrov's public statements framing aggressive EU actions as the primary global threat and accusing Europeans of "theft" regarding frozen assets (18:33Z, 18:34Z) serve to consolidate internal political support and justify RF resource diversion to the conflict.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Air Interdiction and Northern Pressure - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will utilize the newly established KAB targeting pattern in Kharkiv to compound pressure on the North-Eastern sector. The immediate objective is to disrupt GLOCs supporting Kupyansk and the northern shoulder of the Eastern Group. We anticipate the UAV targeting Trostianets/Okhtyrka will culminate in a kinetic strike (Shahed or traditional strike asset) NLT 23:00Z.

MDCOA (Air Superiority Effort over Critical Terrain - MEDIUM Confidence): RF pilots may utilize the confusion created by synchronized KAB/UAV strikes to attempt manned air superiority sorties or close air support near critical frontline sectors (e.g., Kupyansk, Siversk) supported by heavy EW/smoke tactics, capitalizing on the stress placed on UAF AD resources by the wide-area KAB threat.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action / Information Need
P1 (CRITICAL)	Kharkiv KAB Damage Assessment. Determine the specific targets (GLOCs, infrastructure, concentrations) hit by KABs launched into Kharkiv from North/East vectors.	Task IMINT/UAV ISR immediately to the strike zones to confirm RF targeting intent (logistics versus forward positions). NLT 22:00Z Dec 15.
P2 (CRITICAL)	Black Sea UAV Identification. Determine the type and likely origin (RF/UAF) of the UAV shot down by the Turkish F-16.	Task Western partners/NATO liaison for rapid Positive Identification (PID) and debris analysis, specifically checking for known Russian military serials or UAF long-range modifications. NLT 06:00Z Dec 16.
P3 (URGENT)	Sumy UAV Strike Verification/Target ID. Confirm engagement and prevent/mitigate strike damage near Trostianets/Okhtyrka.	Task OC North AD/EW assets to prioritize engagement of the inbound UAV. Monitor open-source reporting for confirmed impact location. NLT 21:00Z Dec 15.
P4 (OPERATIONAL)	Kupyansk RF Force Composition. Verify RF capacity to hold the claimed full control of Kupyansk, especially concerning the presence of heavy armor/significant infantry reserves.	Task ISR assets toward claimed RF-controlled districts to verify the presence and disposition of Zapad Group maneuver elements.

Actionable Recommendations:

Air Defense Reallocation (OC East/North): Immediately shift additional mobile AD assets (e.g., SHORAD systems) to cover critical logistical choke points and railheads in Kharkiv Oblast (including Kupyansk approaches) to counter the expanded KAB threat envelope.
Force Protection (OC North): Implement Level 3 anti-drone/AD protocols for Trostianets and Okhtyrka infrastructure and initiate preparatory measures for casualty handling/fire response based on the confirmed UAV vector.
Diplomatic Preparedness (J7/G2): Prepare analysis briefs for high command outlining potential RF kinetic-diplomatic synchronization (MDCOA) scenarios, enabling pre-emptive messaging to neutralize any potential deep strike IO timed to coincide with the upcoming Zelenskyy/Trump/EU discussions.

Situation Report