Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T17:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (17:23Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): A Russian Federation (RF) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was detected entering Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea, tracking toward the vicinity of Zatoka. This indicates an imminent, renewed kinetic threat to the vital logistical bridge infrastructure recently damaged.
• (17:30Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) successfully destroyed an RF UAV crew responsible for operating the "Molniya" (smoke/ISR) drone system in the Zaporizhzhia sector. This operation mitigates an RF tactical innovation observed in the area.
• (17:21Z, Mash na Donbasse, HIGH): The death of a high-profile former DNR official (Mikhail Mishin) was reported during fighting near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), confirming the high attrition rate and intense Close Quarters Combat (CQC) in the sector.
• (17:05Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed during negotiations in Berlin that while territorial positions remain different with the US, the question of territorial concessions is "not relevant." This directly addresses and contradicts RF Information Operations (IO) regarding UAF surrender demands.
• (17:09Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): A power failure due to equipment malfunction occurred in parts of Slavutych (Chernihiv Oblast), highlighting localized vulnerabilities in the energy grid, which is compounded by planned national power restrictions (ГПВ) for tomorrow (17:19Z).

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority on Logistics Interdiction (CRITICAL): The detection of a UAV moving toward Zatoka (17:23Z) confirms the RF MLCOA to conduct immediate, coordinated follow-up strikes on damaged UAF Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs). The intent is to maximize the non-operational period of the Zatoka bridge, throttling logistics flow into Southern Command.

2. Tactical Drone Force Resilience: Despite the confirmed elimination of a Molniya UAV crew in Zaporizhzhia (17:30Z), other RF channels confirmed continued use of the system near Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk (WarGonzo, 17:25Z). This suggests the Molniya system is locally distributed, minimizing the impact of single crew losses. RF continues to utilize FPV drones offensively (MoD Russia compilation, 17:04Z).

3. Information Warfare Focus: RF IO remains tightly coupled with diplomatic signaling. The primary theme involves disseminating claims that Kyiv is deceiving the public about the frontline situation (17:15Z) and alleging US pressure for UAF withdrawal from Donbas (17:20Z) to pressure Washington and create internal distrust. Furthermore, RF utilizes alleged civilian casualties (Kamianka-Dniprovska strike, 17:20Z) for explicit strategic PSYOPS via high-level officials (Zakharova, 17:29Z).

4. Long-Term Strategy Assessment: The DeepState analysis of 23% territorial capture in Donetsk Oblast over 3.7 years (17:11Z) provides essential context: RF operational success, while currently kinetic and highly destructive, is geographically slow relative to the length of the conflict. This reinforces the necessity of UAF deep-strike capability to offset the slow RF grind.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Counter-UAS Success (Zaporizhzhia): The destruction of an RF Molniya UAV crew demonstrates effective counter-UAS/ISR operations and targeted attrition against specialized RF tactical assets. This directly supports ground defense by denying RF forces localized screening and reconnaissance capabilities crucial for infantry infiltration (as noted in the Previous Daily Report).

2. Strategic Diplomatic Clarity: President Zelenskyy’s firm stance rejecting the relevance of "concessions" and explicitly linking military action to the prerequisite of "clear security guarantees" (17:28Z) successfully counters the current wave of RF IO aimed at undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and resolve. The reported discussion of US legal security guarantees similar to NATO Article 5 (Merz, 17:31Z) raises the diplomatic stakes.

3. Infrastructure Management: UAF logistics planners and energy sector officials are preparing for widespread, scheduled power curtailments (ГПВ) tomorrow (17:19Z). This preemptive measure signals ongoing stress on the national energy grid capacity and necessitates preparedness for localized communication and industrial disruption.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) is dominated by the tension between strategic diplomatic positioning and coordinated RF disinformation.

1. US Abandonment Narrative (RF/IO - UNCONFIRMED, LOW Confidence): RF sources (TASS, Operation Z) actively promote the line that the US is forcing UAF withdrawal from Donbas (17:15Z, 17:20Z). This narrative is specifically designed to isolate Kyiv and undermine UAF command legitimacy.
2. UAF Resistance Narrative (CONFIRMED, HIGH Confidence): Zelenskyy explicitly rejected the notion of territorial concessions (17:31Z). This strong, public position is critical for stabilizing the internal and external perception of UAF resolve, particularly among Western partners concerned about a protracted conflict.
3. PSYOPS/Casualty Exploitation (HIGH Confidence RF PSYOPS): RF MFA utilized the reported injury of a child in Kamianka-Dniprovska to launch a direct, personalized condemnation of Zelenskyy (17:29Z), confirming RF intent to use civilian casualties as a primary tool for international psychological operations.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Kinetic Strike on Odesa GLOC and Continued Grind - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will attempt to strike the Zatoka area (Odesa Oblast) NLT 20:00Z utilizing the inbound UAV, potentially supported by missile assets, to prevent UAF damage assessment/repair. Concurrently, high-intensity attrition warfare will continue in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) sector, leveraging heavy artillery confirmed by the 260th GRAU surge and maintaining pressure on the Siversk line.

MDCOA (Strategic IO Spike and Ceasefire Baiting - MEDIUM Confidence): RF will amplify the IO campaign around US pressure and territorial concessions, aiming for a decisive narrative victory following the Berlin talks. This IO push may coincide with or be supported by the European proposal for a Christmas truce (Merz, 17:31Z), which RF may selectively entertain or reject to position UAF as the intractable party, depending on the outcome of the kinetic operations in Donbas.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements