Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T17:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (17:01Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF successfully tested the heavy hexacopter drone "Mangas" and announced its immediate deployment to the Vostok Grouping (responsible for operations on the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk axis). This signals an expected increase in RF heavy lift/kinetic drone capability in that sector.
• (16:48Z, Народная милиция ДНР, HIGH): RF Minister of Defence Belousov publicly addressed and acknowledged persistent logistical deficiencies regarding basic protective equipment (goggles, vehicle safety gear) during a meeting with frontline activists.
• (16:49Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy announced the opening of a dedicated defense export/joint production office in Berlin to accelerate military-technical cooperation (MTC) with Germany.
• (16:46Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): RF UAV activity detected in Sumy Oblast, moving towards or past Shostka from the North, indicating potential immediate strike planning in the Northern operational area.
• (16:49Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/ТАСС, LOW): UNCONFIRMED, contradictory reports surfaced from Berlin, alleging both US pressure for a UAF withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast and claims that 90% of settlement disputes with Russia are resolved.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Enemy Force Modernization and Deployment: The immediate deployment of the newly tested "Mangas" heavy hexacopter to the Vostok Group (17:01Z) indicates RF priority on reinforcing tactical kinetic capabilities on the axis where they achieved the recent territorial gain (Peschanoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). This drone class, likely capable of delivering larger munition payloads, enhances RF ability to disrupt UAF logistics and forward defensive positions rapidly.

2. Persistent Logistical Stress: Despite the high throughput of bulk munitions (260th GRAU, previous daily report), the public acknowledgement by RF MoD Belousov of gaps in essential personal protective equipment (PPE) (16:48Z) confirms a systemic deficiency in Class IX (General Stores) supply chains. This fragility impacts troop morale, unit retention, and immediate combat effectiveness, particularly among assault units.

3. Retaliation Assessment (Northern Vector): The detection of a UAV near Shostka (16:46Z) reinforces the MLCOA defined in the previous report regarding immediate retaliation for the UAF deep strikes. Critical energy infrastructure in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts is now subject to imminent kinetic risk.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Strategic MTC Acceleration: President Zelenskyy's announcement regarding the Berlin MTC office (16:49Z) is a deliberate step to institutionalize and accelerate the supply of NATO standard Class V materiel and transition toward joint production. This mitigates dependence on fluctuating aid packages and secures long-term sustainment.

2. C2/Manpower Enhancement: The upgrade to the "Impulse" military accounting system (17:03Z) is a crucial non-kinetic initiative. Improved digital C2 over personnel streamlines mobilization, readiness checks, and high-fidelity attrition analysis, increasing the efficiency of UAF manpower utilization.

3. Diplomatic Posture: President Zelenskyy confirmed the negotiations in Berlin were "difficult but productive" (16:48Z). This phrasing signals serious internal negotiations with partners but aims to stabilize the external perception of the alliance amidst conflicting, unconfirmed reports of US pressure regarding Donetsk.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) is currently highly polluted by conflicting, high-level diplomatic narratives likely designed to create internal divisions within Ukraine and between Ukraine and its partners.

1. US Pressure/Withdrawal IO (UNCONFIRMED, LOW Confidence): The claim that the US is demanding UAF troop withdrawal from Donetsk (16:49Z) directly contradicts baseline US commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty (previous Sitrep). This highly sensitive claim serves RF strategic objectives by undermining UAF leadership authority over territorial decisions during periods of RF tactical success in the Donbas.
2. False Progress Narrative (UNCONFIRMED, LOW Confidence): The TASS claim, via Reuters, that 90% of settlement issues are resolved (16:49Z) seeks to delegitimize UAF kinetic action (e.g., Novorossiysk, Astrakhan) by suggesting strikes are unnecessary escalations during perceived progress toward peace.
3. Support Justification: German official Friedrich Merz's statement that Europeans will "systematically increase pressure on Russia" (17:00Z) explicitly frames expanded German MTC as a means to force a cessation of hostilities, strengthening the pro-Ukrainian support narrative internationally.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (RF Retaliatory Strike & Vostok Kinetic Focus - HIGH Confidence): RF forces will initiate retaliatory strikes against UAF energy infrastructure in Northern/Central regions utilizing UAVs and potentially missile assets, following the confirmation of drone activity near Shostka. Concurrently, the Vostok Grouping will employ the newly deployed "Mangas" heavy drones in kinetic operations aimed at expanding the bridgehead across the Gaychur River (Peschanoye), leveraging enhanced tactical drone support.

MDCOA (Heightened Electronic Warfare (EW) / Counter-Drone Operations - MEDIUM Confidence): Given the confirmed deployment of a new RF drone system ("Mangas") and the persistent UAF reliance on FPV/tactical UAVs, RF forces may conduct a concentrated Electronic Warfare surge in the Vostok grouping's area of operations to maximize the operational debut of the new drone, while simultaneously disrupting UAF ISR and close air support. UAF forces must anticipate significant jamming degradation in the area NLT 18:00Z Dec 16.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements