Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T16:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (16:29Z, SBU/Hayabusa, HIGH): The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) officially claimed responsibility for the successful naval drone (UUV) strike against the Russian Federation (RF) Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in Novorossiysk, specifically targeting a Kalibr-capable Kilo-class submarine (Project 636.3, 'Varshavyanka').
• (16:26Z, Koteнок, HIGH): Pro-RF military correspondent (Koteнок) corroborated the incident, confirming the successful penetration of the Novorossiysk harbor by a Ukrainian naval drone (BEK).
• (16:07Z, Genstab/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): The Ukrainian General Staff (Genstab) officially claimed the long-range strike against the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant (GPP), confirming persistent UAF deep strike capability targeting RF strategic economic assets.
• (16:04Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF Dnepr Group of Forces claimed a successful coordinated UAV/artillery strike operation destroying a camouflaged Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) artillery piece on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson Oblast.
• (16:27Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): A US representative, speaking via Reuters, affirmed that the ultimate decision regarding Ukraine's territorial integrity and future borders rests solely with the Ukrainian government, signaling continued US support for the principle of sovereignty in ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Overall Threat Assessment: CRITICAL. The immediate kinetic threat remains RF offensive pressure in the East (Peschanoye, Siversk, Pokrovsk). The strategic threat has been heightened by explicit RF intent to retaliate for naval losses by targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, potentially utilizing the vulnerability of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as leverage.

1. Retaliation Strategy (Energy Infrastructure): Pro-RF figures (Tsarev, 16:26Z) are openly advocating for a maximalist retaliatory strike on Ukraine's energy grid ("turn off all the light") following the Novorossiysk loss. This rhetoric is often a precursor to coordinated RF kinetic actions. Analytical Judgment: This significantly increases the risk profile for UAF energy assets (Class I/III/V storage, substations, power generation) in the next 12-48 hours.
2. Kherson Counter-Fire Capability: The RF MoD claim of a successful, UAV-adjusted strike on UAF artillery (16:04Z) confirms RF retention of effective counter-battery and target acquisition capabilities along the Dnipro line, complicating UAF freedom of maneuver and fire support near the river.
3. Naval Forced Dispersal: The verified UUV penetration and subsequent high-confidence UAF claim against a Kilo-class SSK means RF BSF command is now under extreme pressure to disperse high-value Kalibr-capable assets. This dispersion represents a temporary reduction in RF naval strike effectiveness but requires intensive UAF monitoring to track the new operational locations (P5 gap remains relevant).

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Confirmation of Strategic Kinetic Initiative: The Genstab confirmation of the Astrakhan GPP strike (16:07Z) and the SBU claim on the Kilo-class submarine (16:29Z) solidify UAF operational capability in the deep strike domain (1,000+ km range and sensitive naval targets). This success continues to disrupt RF logistics and critical national infrastructure (CNI).
2. UUV Technology Validation: The specific targeting of a Kilo-class submarine—a high-value, hardened asset—reinforces the effectiveness and targeting sophistication of the UAF maritime drone fleet (Sea Baby). UAF sources assert the submarine was a Kalibr launch platform (16:29Z).
3. Diplomatic Alignment: Ongoing high-level negotiations in Berlin (16:12Z) and the US commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty regarding territorial decisions (16:27Z) indicate stable and continuous strategic support, mitigating RF information operations aimed at depicting Western abandonment.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Naval Narrative Escalation: UAF information efforts are focused on maximizing the operational and financial impact of the Novorossiysk strike (asserted $500M loss, Kalibr capability neutralized, 16:11Z). RF counter-narrative, while confirming the penetration (16:26Z), still attempts to downplay damage severity (baseline context).
2. IO Justification for Retaliation: RF-affiliated figures are utilizing the naval losses to frame future massive energy strikes as a necessary, proportionate retaliation, potentially preparing the RF domestic and international audience for wide-scale attacks on Ukrainian CNI.
3. Diplomatic Friction Amplification: Pro-RF channels attempted to selectively quote President Zelensky regarding US negotiations (16:06Z) to imply significant disagreement with US partners, a common tactic to erode confidence in the alliance.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Intensified Retaliatory Energy Strikes - HIGH Confidence): In direct response to the Novorossiysk and Astrakhan strikes, RF forces will immediately seek to impose costs on Ukraine's civil and military infrastructure. The most likely target set is high-value energy infrastructure (power generation, major substations) using combined missile and UAV salvos, possibly escalating the targeting of infrastructure linked to the ZNPP operational safety zone (Tsarev comment). Simultaneously, RF ground forces will sustain the current pressure points in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

MDCOA (BSF Strategic Withdrawal and Air Force Surge - MEDIUM Confidence): RF naval command will accelerate the relocation of BSF assets from Novorossiysk, likely initiating rapid deployments to distant ports (e.g., Abkhazia or potentially further east in the Black Sea). This tactical withdrawal will be masked by a surge in high-altitude missile or Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes in the Southern and Eastern theaters to draw UAF Air Defense (AD) attention away from the BSF movements.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements