Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T15:35Z CONTEXT: RF forces continue deep logistics interdiction and maintain localized ground momentum in the Southern Operational Axis. The most significant development is the expansion of Ukrainian deep strike capabilities into the underwater domain, severely impacting the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) at its primary staging/repair base.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (15:03Z, SBU/UAF, HIGH): UAF Security Service (SBU), in coordination with the Ukrainian Navy, conducted a successful underwater drone strike (using "Sub Sea Baby" UUVs) against a Russian Kilo-class (Varshavyanka) submarine moored at the Novorossiysk naval base. UAF claims critical damage, removing the submarine from operational service.
• (15:11Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Active launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reinforcing the air threat against UAF forward and rear areas in the Southern Axis.
• (15:11Z, AV БогомаZ, MEDIUM): RF forces claimed the destruction of seven (7) UAF fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, confirming continued UAF deep penetration strikes into RF territory.
• (15:24Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Pro-RF channels provided increased detail and promotion regarding the domestic production and capabilities of the "Molniya-2" strike UAV, indicating RF focus on scaling tactical drone warfare.
• (15:07Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): UAF strike temporarily cut power to 1,152 consumers in occupied Kamianka-Dniprovska (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), targeting localized enemy logistics/administrative nodes.
• (15:07Z, Сливочный каприз, LOW): Unconfirmed RF claim of an ongoing offensive operation targeting the UAF defensive perimeter around Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Overall Threat Assessment: CRITICAL. RF forces are compensating for the UAF Deep Strike threat (Novorossiysk, Astrakhan) by intensifying localized ground pressure in Zaporizhzhia (Vostok Group) and confirming a comprehensive logistics interdiction campaign (Zatoka, Kostiantynivka).

1. Naval Threat (BSF Degradation): The strike on the Kilo-class SS/SSK submarine is a significant operational loss. These submarines are a core component of Russia’s long-range Kalibr launch capability, which is critical for their strategic targeting across Ukraine. The attack forces the BSF Command to reassess the security of even their most fortified bases, including Novorossiysk.
2. Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB Usage): The confirmed KAB launches against Zaporizhzhia (15:11Z) directly support the ground maneuver force (Vostok Group) by suppressing UAF reserves and striking reinforcement routes parallel to the Varvarovka/Peschanoye penetration. This air support is currently the most lethal threat to UAF fixed positions.
3. Ground Maneuver (Huliaipole Sector): RF claims of an offensive targeting Huliaipole (15:07Z) suggests RF intent to widen the operational area of the Vostok Group pressure, attempting to fix UAF forces defending Pokrovsk's southern flank. If corroborated, this would require immediate UAF reserve commitment.
4. Domestic UAV Capability: RF channels promoting the "Molniya-2" strike UAV confirm continued investment and rapid integration of domestically developed FPV/strike platforms, which enhances RF tactical lethality, particularly against dismounted infantry and light vehicles.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Naval Deep Strike Capability (CRITICAL SUCCESS): The SBU/Navy operation against the BSF submarine using the "Sub Sea Baby" UUV is a major strategic victory. This achievement demonstrates UAF capability to hold high-value RF naval assets at risk inside protected ports, further restricting RF freedom of movement in the Black Sea.
2. Counter-Infrastructure Targeting: The strike on power infrastructure in Kamianka-Dniprovska (15:07Z) highlights UAF efforts to destabilize occupied rear areas and disrupt enemy C2 and maintenance facilities supporting the Vostok Group.
3. Tactical Efficiency: DShV units (46th and 79th Brigades) continue to demonstrate high operational tempo in drone warfare, providing essential localized fire support and ISR coverage on the Eastern Front.

Information environment / disinformation

1. UAF Narrative Dominance: The swift, corroborated release of the Novorossiysk strike footage provides an immediate and powerful counter-narrative to recent RF localized territorial gains (Varvarovka, Peschanoye). This highly visible kinetic success is expected to boost domestic and international military morale.
2. RF Deflection and Normalization: RF state media continues to focus on non-military domestic issues (education reform, social assistance) and geopolitical distraction (Zakharova's comments on asset seizure) to mitigate the impact of the deep strikes. RF channels are also normalizing the Molniya-2 UAV to showcase perceived technological parity.
3. Diplomatic Clarity: Defense Minister Umerov's clarification (15:24Z) regarding US negotiations aims to control expectations and maintain positive momentum concerning international military aid delivery.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (RF Sustained Pressure and Consolidation - HIGH Confidence): The Vostok Group will continue to exploit the bridgeheads established (Peschanoye/Varvarovka) and press the Huliaipole line (if the RF claim is true). This effort will be heavily supported by KAB and artillery fire saturation, sustained by the high volume output from the 260th GRAU arsenal. RF Command will prioritize consolidating territorial gains before the end of the 72-hour period predicted for the mass artillery surge.

MDCOA (BSF Retaliation/Dispersion - MEDIUM Confidence): RF Naval Command (BSF) will be under pressure to respond to the successful UUV attack. They may execute immediate, symbolic retaliatory Kalibr launches (using assets not requiring Novorossiysk repairs) before initiating a wider dispersion of high-value surface and subsurface assets toward more distant, less threatened ports (e.g., in the Caspian Sea or further inside the Sea of Azov). This dispersion will temporarily disrupt their strike tempo.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements