Situation Report

Situation Update (2025-12-15T13:33Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Confirmed Loss of Peschanoye (Dnipropetrovsk): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Vostok Group sources confirmed the capture of Peschanoye, Dnipropetrovsk region. This represents a confirmed advance, shifting the tactical LOC near the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk boundary (13:16:15, MoD Russia, HIGH).
• New Kinetic Strikes on Kostiantynivka: RF drone footage documented an aerial strike operation against Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast). This attack targets a critical UAF logistics and C2 hub in the immediate operational rear of the Pokrovsk axis (13:22:02, NgP Razvedka, HIGH).
• Expanded Air Threat Vector (Odesa): UAF Air Force reported a new UAV track originating from the Black Sea heading toward Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, confirming the extension of RF deep strike capability into the southwestern Black Sea coast (13:08:09, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Alert: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an air/kinetic attack alert, aligning with previous intelligence regarding RF KAB and UAV expansion into the Southern Axis rear (13:04:04, Zaporizhzhia Admin, HIGH).
• RF Prepares for Internal Martial Law: The RF MoD is proposing legislation to establish pre-positioned regional "defense headquarters" to streamline the introduction of martial law nationwide. This indicates strategic planning for long-term conflict or severe internal crisis scenarios (13:32:56, ASTRA, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk)

RF maneuver operations are expanding laterally and applying kinetic pressure deeper into the UAF operational rear, challenging logistics beyond the immediate contact line around Pokrovsk.

• Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Boundary: The confirmed loss of Peschanoye (13:16:15) indicates RF Vostok Group is achieving localized maneuver success, pushing the LOC west/northwest of the traditional Southern Donetsk axis. This move threatens to complicate UAF reserve positioning and logistics for the Southern Operational Command (OC South).
• Kostiantynivka Sector: The confirmed aerial strike on Kostiantynivka (13:22:02) demonstrates RF intent to interdict GLOCs feeding the forward defenses (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar). Kostiantynivka is a High-Value Target (HVT) for RF kinetic attack due to its rail capacity and proximity to the front.
• Dobropillya Direction: Russian military bloggers confirmed active engagements in the Dobropillya salient area, utilizing FPV drones (13:14:03, 13:30:21). This suggests RF is pressuring the northern shoulder of the Pokrovsk axis, seeking to widen the operational breach.

Southern Axis (Odesa/Kherson)

The immediate threat is kinetic, shifting from previous deep strikes solely on Dnipro/Kharkiv to include the critical southern rail and port infrastructure.

• Odesa Oblast: The detection of a UAV launched from the Black Sea toward Zatoka (13:08:09) confirms RF intent to target the Odesa region, likely focusing on port facilities, bridges, or coastal defenses.
• Zaporizhzhia: A local alert (13:04:04) confirms the ongoing threat, likely connected to KAB or dual-warhead Shahed strikes previously anticipated (Daily Report context).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Capabilities and Intentions: RF intent is multi-domain: securing tactical advances (Peschanoye), increasing kinetic suppression of UAF logistics (Kostiantynivka, Odesa), and preparing the Russian domestic environment for long-term mobilization/conflict.

• Tactical Adaptation (Maneuver): The seizure of Peschanoye validates RF intent to expand the operational zone of conflict outside the highly contested Pokrovsk urban area, utilizing Vostok Group assets to achieve incremental territorial gains.
• Strategic Preparation (Internal Security): The legislative proposal to pre-establish regional 'defense headquarters' (13:32:56) is a high-confidence indicator of RF leadership assessing a sustained, long-term conflict requiring swift transition to a war economy/martial law footing domestically. This should inform UAF long-term strategic planning (J5).
• Information Warfare Surge: RF IO is actively amplifying narratives of impending energy collapse in Ukraine (13:14:02) and attempting to undermine high-level diplomatic support following the Berlin talks (13:18:49).

Threat Assessment:

1. Imminent Logistical Interdiction (P1): The confirmed strike on Kostiantynivka and the Odesa UAV detection show a coordinated attempt to paralyze the UAF logistical spine across the Eastern and Southern Operational Zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Pressure on Pokrovsk Flank: The confirmed advance at Peschanoye and persistent fighting in Dobropillya means RF pressure on the Pokrovsk grouping is now approaching from the Northwest and West, complicating UAF defensive geometry. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
3. High-Risk RF Mobilization: The legislative movement regarding martial law suggests RF is setting conditions for a potentially massive, high-risk mobilization event in the medium term (Q1 2026), requiring increased domestic control. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Diplomatic Resilience: Ukrainian officials, as framed by RF IO, maintained a firm stance in the Berlin talks, refusing concessions regarding withdrawal from Donbas (13:18:49).
• Morale Operations: UAF Airborne Assault Forces (DShV) released high-production morale content emphasizing national unity and diversity of the fighting force (13:15:37).

Information environment / disinformation

• Energy Anxiety Campaign: RF channels are actively citing Western media (The Washington Post) to legitimize claims that Kyiv and Eastern Ukraine are facing a "complete blackout" (13:14:02). This IO aims to degrade civilian morale and preemptively justify future strikes.
• Mobilization Justification: Ramzan Kadyrov's public statements urging parents to "rejoice" in sending children to war (13:13:22) are part of a targeted IO effort to normalize high casualty rates and suppress public anxiety related to mobilization within the North Caucasus.
• Global IO Expansion: Ukrainian intelligence reports confirm RF is intensifying informational special operations in Africa (13:09:23), likely focused on undermining Western influence and securing diplomatic support ahead of international votes.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Kinetic Saturation of Logistics and C2): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will utilize the newly identified Odesa UAV vector and the established Kharkiv KAB/Dnipropetrovsk UAV vectors to execute a coordinated deep strike package within the next 6-12 hours, focusing specifically on rail heads (Lozova/Kostiantynivka) and coastal infrastructure (Odesa/Zatoka). The goal remains to create logistical strangulation concurrent with ground attrition.

MDCOA (Exploitation of Peschanoye Gain): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The RF Vostok Group will consolidate control over Peschanoye and attempt to push further north/west into the central Dnipropetrovsk operational area, aiming to threaten the rear flank of UAF forces deployed between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. If the gain is exploited, it could force UAF to divert crucial reserves away from the main Pokrovsk defensive line.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The most critical gaps remain focused on the potential artillery surge (260th GRAU) and the unstable Siversk LOC (P0). However, the new Peschanoye advance creates an immediate need for LOC verification in the Dnipropetrovsk sector.