Situation Report

Situation Update (2025-12-15T13:03Z)

This report synthesizes intelligence gathered since the previous sitrep (12:33Z) focusing on kinetic operations in the Eastern Axis and strategic sustainment updates.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Pokrovsk Status Confirmed (Contested): Ukrainian counter-propaganda sources (Tsapliyenko) refuted persistent RF claims of Pokrovsk capture, confirming UAF units are actively engaged in combat operations within the city limits. This stabilizes the immediate tactical picture (12:36:50, UAF Source, HIGH).
• Kharkiv KAB Threat Vector Shift: RF forces conducted new Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches toward Kharkiv Oblast, explicitly sourced as originating from the North (12:36:15, Air Force ZSU, HIGH). This suggests a possible shift in tactical aviation launch zones, potentially increasing threat reaction time requirements for UAF air defense.
• RF Pressure Maintained on Pokrovsk Axis: RF Ministry of Defense reported continued successful operations by the Tsentr Group of Forces, utilizing T-80BVM tanks to eliminate UAF strongholds in the "Krasnoarmeysk direction" (Pokrovsk axis) (12:33:18, MoD Russia, MEDIUM).
• German-Ukrainian Drone Production Initiated: Germany has reportedly commenced manufacturing several models of Ukrainian drones (12:49:23, РБК-Україна, HIGH). This represents a critical step in addressing the UAF drone deficit (P1 Gap identified in previous reporting).

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Kharkiv/Donetsk)

RF focus remains dual-pronged: grinding maneuver operations in the Donetsk operational zone and deep kinetic strikes aimed at UAF logistical depth.

• Pokrovsk Sector: UAF maneuver units are confirmed holding positions and engaged in close-quarters combat inside Pokrovsk (12:36:50). This refutes RF Information Operations (IO) claiming capture. The operational objective for RF remains the severing of the main Western Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs). RF MoD continues to highlight tank-supported assaults (12:33:18).
• Kharkiv/Northeast: The shift of the KAB launch vector to the North (12:36:15) increases the kinetic threat exposure for assets east of Kharkiv City. This indicates RF is utilizing the full depth of its border region aviation capabilities to saturate the area. The critical logistical nodes (previously identified threat to Lozova) remain under imminent threat from converging air attacks.
• Kramatorsk: Successful SBU counter-intelligence operations (13:02:27) mitigate localized RF targeting capabilities against critical UAF command and control (C2) and logistics infrastructure in the rear.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

No significant change in the Line of Contact (LOC) or kinetic intensity since the previous sitrep. Activity is assessed as localized fixing operations and routine drone surveillance, as indicated by generic RF reporting (12:33:44).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Capabilities and Intentions: RF intent is the simultaneous kinetic preemption of UAF logistics and the attritional seizure of key terrain (Pokrovsk).

• Tactical Adaptation (Air): The confirmed use of a Northern vector for KAB strikes is a tactical adaptation designed to challenge UAF AD response protocols by forcing multi-directional engagements across the Eastern and Northeastern front lines.
• Sustained Pressure: The continued RF expenditure of high-value kinetic assets (T-80BVM crews, KABs) demonstrates high commitment to the Pokrovsk-Kharkiv axis, likely in preparation for the high-volume artillery surge expected from the 260th GRAU (Daily Report context).

Threat Assessment:

1. Imminent Complex Air Attack (P1): RF forces are posturing for a high-density, complex air attack utilizing the Northern KAB vector alongside the previously tracked converging UAV tracks toward Eastern Dnipropetrovsk. This coordinated attack aims to paralyze UAF rail logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Siversk Operational Collapse (P0 Gap): The persistent inability to verify the LOC in Siversk remains the highest risk factor. Confirmation of RF control would immediately expose the Lyman/Kostiantynivka flank. (CRITICAL RISK, UNCONFIRMED)

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Maneuver Resilience: UAF defensive posture in Pokrovsk remains robust, relying on decentralized resistance and urban combat capability to counter RF mechanized assaults.
• Strategic Industrial Base: The start of drone production in Germany is a material step toward mitigating the UAF deficit and improving tactical ISR/strike capacity on the Eastern Axis. This support must be immediately integrated into sustainment planning.

Information environment / disinformation

• Energy IO: RF information channels are actively amplifying narratives designed to create anxiety about Ukraine's energy resilience ahead of winter, leveraging video segments featuring alleged "Ukrainian experts" (12:53:47). This likely precedes further targeted strikes.
• Political Fragmentation: RF IO is attempting to undermine recent high-level diplomatic engagements (Berlin talks) by framing proposed EU aid (€210B) as an aggressive "military provocation" (12:43:01), seeking to exploit internal EU political divisions (Hungary).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Deep Strike / Ground Attrition): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will execute a complex air strike targeting UAF logistical and energy nodes across both Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (leveraging the Northern KAB vector) and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (converging UAVs) within the next 6 hours. Ground forces will maintain extremely high attrition rates around Pokrovsk, focused on eliminating UAF resistance pockets ahead of the anticipated arrival of massed artillery ammunition.

MDCOA (Siversk Exploitation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE, contingent) If P0 verification confirms RF operational control over Siversk, RF mechanized units will immediately attempt to exploit the seam between UAF forces defending Lyman and Kostiantynivka. UAF command must prepare contingency plans to reposition reserves to stabilize this sector.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The critical gap at Siversk remains unresolved and takes precedence over all other collection requirements due to the operational risk of flank exposure.