Situation Report

Situation Update (2025-12-15T12:33Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Deep Strike Vectors Converging on Dnipro/Kharkiv Axis: Multiple RF UAV tracks detected originating from occupied territories, converging toward the Eastern Dnipropetrovsk area (12:32:10, Air Force ZSU, HIGH). This validates the previous assessment of a prioritized kinetic threat against the UAF logistical depth (Lozova/Merefa).
• Confirmed KAB Strikes on Eastern Kharkiv: RF forces conducted launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting eastern Kharkiv Oblast (12:22:05, Air Force ZSU, HIGH). An explosion was reported in Kharkiv City (12:20:15, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
• High-Level Berlin Negotiations Concluded: The Ukrainian delegation, led by President Zelenskyy, concluded two rounds of high-level negotiations with the US delegation in Berlin and proceeded to meet with the German President (12:29:37, 12:32:03, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
• EU Sanctions Expansion: The EU adopted new sanctions targeting the Russian "shadow fleet," Valdai Club members, and the International Movement of Russophiles, aimed at degrading RF's economic and hybrid warfare infrastructure (12:07:25, 12:09:31, РБК-Україна/Север.Реалии, HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Ground Pressure (UNCONFIRMED LOC): RF sources report sustained pressure and activity along the Kamenske–Stepnohirsk axis (12:20:23, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED). This indicates continued RF efforts to disrupt UAF defenses leading to the Dnipro River.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk/Donetsk)

RF kinetic operations are increasingly focused on degrading UAF rear services through complex air attacks, leveraging the confirmed UAF tactical ISR deficit (baseline context).

• Kharkiv/Northeast: Confirmed KAB usage in Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (12:22:05) signals RF intent to deliver high-payload damage at standoff ranges. This capability must be countered by enhanced AD and mobile fire groups (MFGs).
• Dnipropetrovsk (Rear): UAV activity is highly concentrated. Drone tracks originating from both occupied Kharkiv and Donetsk are converging on Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (12:32:10), specifically targeting the Petropavlivka/Shakhtarske vector (12:13:52). This indicates a coordinated attempt to achieve saturation and target critical logistic nodes such as Lozova.
• Siversk: The emergency status regarding the unconfirmed capture/penetration of Siversk remains the primary operational concern (P0 gap, baseline context).

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Zaporizhzhia: RF reports of activity near the Kamenske–Stepnohirsk axis (12:20:24) indicate continued fixing operations against UAF defenses in the direction of the Dnipro River. These efforts are likely intended to draw UAF reserves away from the Eastern Axis.
• Kherson: UAF successfully captured a Prisoner of War (POW) from the RF 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment (12:17:05).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Capabilities and Intentions (Focus: Kinetic Preemption): RF operational intent is to neutralize the UAF logistical spine (Dnipro/Kharkiv rail lines) before the high-volume artillery surge (from the 260th GRAU) arrives at the front. The use of converging drone vectors and KABs suggests a high degree of integration between RF strike and reconnaissance assets.

• Tactical Adaptation: The increasing reliance on complex drone attacks targeting the deep rear (East Dnipropetrovsk) confirms RF recognition of the critical importance of UAF logistics. The risk of the logistics hub at Lozova being struck remains CRITICAL.
• Force Generation IO: RF media is highlighting the "506th Regiment of the new generation" (12:05:17), which serves to promote the narrative of continuous high-quality mobilization and sustained combat power.

Threat Assessment:

1. Imminent Logistical Interdiction (P1): The converging UAV tracks toward Eastern Dnipropetrovsk must be treated as an immediate high-probability strike. Defense of critical rail junctions (Lozova) and energy infrastructure is a top operational priority (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2. Siversk Flank Exposure (P0): The inability to confirm the status of Siversk prevents effective counter-maneuver planning. Immediate, verified status of the LOC in this sector is required to prevent an operational collapse (HIGH CONFIDENCE if RF claims are true).
3. Artillery Surge Follow-on: The deep strikes currently observed are preparatory fires for the projected high-intensity ground offensive (baseline context).

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are maintaining robust international engagement and military training.

• Readiness and Training: Training under Operation INTERFLEX, supported by New Zealand and UK instructors, ensures UAF personnel maintain high standards and interoperability (12:22:27).
• Strategic Support: The conclusion of the Berlin negotiations (12:29:37) sets the stage for defining the next phase of international resource support, which is critical given the confirmed drone deficit on the Eastern Axis (baseline context).
• Economic Resilience: The focus on supporting domestic enterprises in Zaporizhzhia (12:03:54) signals a proactive strategy to bolster the war economy, mitigating the effects of RF kinetic and hybrid pressure.

Information environment / disinformation

The informational domain reinforces the strategic conflict dimensions—financial pressure and negotiation narratives.

• EU Sanctions Impact: The expansion of EU sanctions to include the "shadow fleet" and key influence groups (VADAI/Russophiles) is a direct blow to RF efforts to circumvent oil revenue limits and influence global opinion (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Negotiation Narrative: RF channels are immediately attempting to shape the Berlin outcome, claiming negotiations are stalled by Kyiv (12:32:02). This is a predictable IO effort designed to pressure UAF negotiators and fragment Western support.
• UAF Counter-IO: The SBU release of the POW interview serves as an effective PSYOP tool, targeting RF internal morale and recruitment efforts (12:17:05).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Kinetic Strangulation and Reconnaissance Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will launch a coordinated, high-density complex air attack (UAV swarm potentially coupled with KAB/Missile strikes) targeting identified HVTs in the Eastern Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv rear area within the next 6 hours. This attack aims to severely disrupt the rail movement of UAF reserves and sustainment, isolating the Eastern Front forces ahead of the projected artillery surge. Ground forces will maintain fixation operations around Pokrovsk and increase reconnaissance-in-force near Kamenske–Stepnohirsk.

MDCOA (Siversk Collapse Exploitation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE, contingent) If P0 verification confirms RF operational control over Siversk, RF mechanized exploitation of the newly exposed UAF flank (Lyman/Kostiantynivka) becomes the immediate MDCOA.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements