Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T12:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• Critical Pressure on Siversk (UNCONFIRMED): A prominent UAF-aligned source claims the "greater part of Siversk is captured by the enemy" (11:39:00, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). This report, if corroborated, indicates an immediate operational crisis north of the Bakhmut axis.
• Deep UAV Threat Vector Escalation: RF UAV activity has been tracked moving deep into the Kharkiv/Dnipro rear, specifically toward critical logistical hubs including Merefa, Krasnopavlivka, and the key rail junction at Lozova (11:39:56, Air Force ZSU, HIGH). This validates the MDCOA projection of attacks targeting UAF logistics depth.
• Confirmed Drone Shortage (Eastern Axis): Urgent appeals for FPV/reconnaissance drone support from frontline units in the Donetsk sector confirm an immediate and critical constraint on UAF tactical ISR and precision strike capabilities (11:47:58, STERNENKO, HIGH).
• Hulyai-Pole Under Heavy Fire: Visual evidence confirms intense kinetic operations targeting Hulyai-Pole (Zaporizhzhia sector), indicating sustained RF efforts against this critical defensive node (12:00:07, Воин DV, MEDIUM).
• RF Logistical Integration Continues: RF Defence Minister Belousov is confirmed to be actively working to formally integrate volunteer logistical support, reinforcing the structure needed to efficiently handle the impending large-scale artillery surge (11:52:01, Поддубный, HIGH).
• Diplomatic Opposition to Asset Seizure Grows: The number of EU member states opposing the full use of frozen RF assets has reportedly increased to seven (12:01:28, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM), signalling a significant fissure in the financial dimension of international support.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Lyman/Kupyansk)

The operational tempo remains HIGH, driven by RF maneuver warfare and high-volume kinetic threats, compounded by worsening weather conditions.

• Siversk Direction (P0 - IMMEDIATE CONCERN): The unconfirmed claim of significant enemy penetration/capture of Siversk (11:39:00) necessitates immediate attention. If confirmed, this breach would expose UAF flanks and GLOCs serving the Lyman/Kostiantynivka defensive line.
• Donetsk/Pokrovsk: RF MoD-affiliated units (e.g., «Рубикон») are confirmed active (11:40:31). The critical shortage of FPV/reconnaissance drones reported by UAF units (11:47:58) presents an immediate vulnerability to RF precision targeting and counter-battery fire.
• Weather Effects: Snowfall is reported across the Eastern region (11:54:07), which may temporarily reduce high-altitude ISR efficacy (e.g., fixed-wing UAVs) but could also provide cover for localized ground maneuver.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Zaporizhzhia: Hulyai-Pole is confirmed to be suffering intense bombardment (12:00:07). This is highly likely tied to RF attempts to create tactical opportunities before the onset of the expected major artillery offensive. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the western part of the oblast, confirming pre-strike shaping activities (11:49:20).
• Kherson: RF sources claim UAF fire targeted Kakhovka (11:36:43, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). The situation near the Antonivskiy Bridge remains localized and constrained.

Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy)

• Sumy: RF UAVs were detected originating from the northeast, continuing the pattern of kinetic probing intended to fix UAF border defense assets (11:35:57).
• Deep Rear Interdiction: The confirmed UAV track towards Lozova/Merefa (11:39:56) is a critical development. Lozova serves as a primary logistical hub for rail movements supporting the Eastern front; targeting this location would have significant operational impact.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Capabilities and Intentions (Logistical Surge Preparation): RF C2 is actively optimizing the rear services through the integration of volunteer groups (11:52:01). This reinforces the assessment that RF is ensuring logistics will not be the limiting factor for the imminent artillery surge observed at the 260th GRAU. The intent remains a high-volume kinetic offensive focused on exhausting UAF defenders on the Eastern Axis.

Recent Tactical Adaptations: RF is successfully leveraging the cognitive domain and technical capabilities to press UAF vulnerabilities:

1. Targeting GLOCs: Immediate shift in UAV targeting deep into the UAF rear (Lozova) suggests RF is attempting to preemptively sever sustainment lines ahead of the ground assault.
2. Exploiting FPV Gap: The confirmed deficit of tactical ISR assets (drones) on the UAF side provides RF a critical advantage in fire correction and near-term situational awareness.

Threat Assessment:

1. Siversk Flank Exposure: The immediate, unconfirmed threat of Siversk falling (11:39:00) requires P0 status. A successful RF exploitation here risks rapid operational gains and the isolation of UAF forces in the Kostiantynivka sector.
2. Logistics Interdiction (Lozova): The UAV vector towards Lozova is the primary near-term kinetic threat to UAF sustainment. High priority must be given to defending this critical rail junction.
3. Imminent Artillery/Mechanized Surge: The combination of optimized RF logistics and continued ground pressure confirms the MLCOA that RF will launch a concentrated offensive in the next 12-48 hours once the 260th GRAU ammunition arrives at the front.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are maintaining engagement and conducting successful counter-fire (132nd DShV, 11:59:58).

Resource Criticality: The most pressing issue is the confirmed tactical resource constraint regarding FPV and reconnaissance drones on the Eastern Axis. This shortfall degrades force protection and effectiveness against incoming RF saturation fire and reconnaissance, necessitating immediate logistical prioritization.

Information environment / disinformation

The information environment is dominated by RF attempts to fracture international consensus and promote a narrative of necessary Ukrainian political/territorial compromise.

Negotiation Pressure: RF sources are pushing the narrative that the US is demanding a full UAF withdrawal from Donbas (11:38:06). This mirrors Peskov's focus on the "cornerstone" issue (11:35:35), intended to portray RF maximalist demands as globally accepted preconditions for peace.

Propaganda: RF sources continue to deploy graphic, dehumanizing material (11:35:30), consistent with previous psychological operations aimed at degrading UAF morale and resolve.

Diplomatic Setbacks: The confirmed increase in EU opposition (7 nations) to the use of frozen RF assets creates an IO opportunity for Moscow to emphasize Western disunity and impede long-term UAF financial security planning.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (RF Logistical Shaping and Fixing Operations): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will execute preparatory complex air attacks targeting UAF logistical nodes (Lozova, Merefa) and command/control structures in the deep rear, using both reconnaissance and strike UAVs. Concurrently, RF ground forces will maintain extreme high-tempo assaults in the Pokrovsk and Hulyai-Pole sectors, attempting to fix UAF reserves and exploit the critical tactical FPV/ISR deficit confirmed by UAF appeals.

MDCOA (Siversk Collapse Exploitation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE IF CONFIRMED) If verification confirms RF control over Siversk, the MDCOA shifts immediately to RF mechanized exploitation of the newly exposed flank toward Lyman/Kostiantynivka. This requires rapid UAF counter-response and the immediate relocation of uncommitted reserves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements