Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T11:33Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• Confirmed RF Airstrikes (Multi-Domain): GSZSU reports extensive RF aviation use, targeting Baranivka (Kharkiv), Velykomykhaylivka (Dnipropetrovsk), and key positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors (11:05:43, Liveuamap, HIGH). This validates the projection of high-volume kinetic operations, including continued KAB/FAB risk.
• Critical Pressure on Pokrovsk Axis: GSZSU confirms active clashes near strategic population centers including Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk itself, alongside engagements at Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Rodynske (11:06:07, Liveuamap, HIGH). This indicates immediate, high-tempo RF ground pressure on the main Eastern operational axis.
• RF Tactical Claim (Mirnograd): Pro-RF sources claim the "cleansing of Mirnograd" while UAF forms a new defense line (11:05:26, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). ANALYSIS: This claim must be treated as information warfare intended to precede or accompany the kinetic pressure confirmed by GSZSU.
• Deep Strike Efficacy Confirmed: Independent sources report the Saratov Oil Refinery paused operations following the UAF strike on 13 December (11:13:40, ASTRA, MEDIUM). This confirms UAF ability to successfully interdict critical RF logistical and economic infrastructure.
• New UAV Threat Vector Identified: UAF Air Force reports UAV activity heading toward/past Vilshany and Zlatopil (11:20:26, Air Force ZSU, HIGH). This mandates immediate monitoring for potential kinetic strikes targeting the logistical or defensive depth in these areas.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Lyman/Kupyansk)

The overall operational tempo remains HIGH, characterized by concentrated RF ground assaults and high-volume fire support:

• Pokrovsk Operational Direction (CRITICAL): Clashes are reported directly adjacent to, and potentially within the immediate operational area of, Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk (11:06:07, GSZSU). This validates the previous assessment that RF is attempting to exploit localized gains near Hryshyne. The intensity of fighting around Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Rodynske suggests RF intent to cut key lateral defensive supply routes supporting the UAF line.
• Kupyansk Direction: GSZSU confirms clashes near Petropavlivka and Pischane (11:05:50). UAF sources claim successful localized action, reporting RF personnel are blocked/besieged in Kupyansk, undergoing "cautious liquidation" (11:20:54, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
• Lyman/Kostiantynivka: Sustained RF pressure confirmed near Novoyehorivka (Lyman) and in the Kostiantynivka direction (Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka). This pressure aims to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployment to the Pokrovsk main effort.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Kinetic Strikes: RF aviation conducted strikes against key logistics and concentration areas including Huliaipole and Velykomykhaylivka (11:05:43). This aligns with the MDCOA of logistical strangulation via expanded KAB/FAB use identified in the Daily Report.
• Ground Activity: Clashes confirmed directly at Huliaipole and near Solodke (11:06:17). RF sources claim the Vostok Group seized Peschanoye (11:31:01, Дневник Десантника, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). This persistent claim warrants immediate verification as Peschanoye is a critical defensive node.
• Kherson: Localized clashes remain confirmed near the Antonivskiy Bridge area (11:06:20).

Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy)

• Defense in Depth: UAF forces successfully repelled one RF assault along the Kursk/North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction (11:06:23, GSZSU, HIGH). This demonstrates continued RF probing actions intended to tie down UAF border defense units.
• New ISR/Strike Vector: The detection of UAVs near Vilshany and Zlatopil (11:20:26) suggests RF is testing UAF air defenses or preparing a kinetic strike against infrastructure or rear positions along the northeastern border.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Capabilities and Intentions (Logistical Adaption): RF Minister of Defence Belousov is actively engaged in streamlining logistics and materiel provision by formally integrating volunteer movements into the MoD planning structure (11:23:53). This action, taken concurrent with the critical surge identified at the 260th GRAU, suggests RF is preparing its rear infrastructure to efficiently support the projected massive increase in artillery munitions flow to the front (24-48h outlook).

Threat Assessment:

1. Pokrovsk Breakthrough: The immediate threat is an RF breakthrough in the Pokrovsk direction, attempting to exploit tactical opportunities before UAF establishes the reported new defense line. The proximity of fighting to Myrnohrad mandates heightened UAF fire suppression and counter-assault readiness.
2. Air Threat (Immediate): UAV detection in the Vilshany/Zlatopil area requires immediate SHORAD readiness. This vector could precede a larger, complex air attack utilizing the newly confirmed 100kg Shahed variant, as predicted in the Daily Report.
3. Oil Industry Vulnerability (RF): The confirmed operational pause at Saratov refinery (11:13:40) validates UAF asymmetric deep strike capability, confirming that RF domestic logistics and economic stability remain highly vulnerable.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are successfully maintaining structured, multi-axis defensive operations, confirmed by GSZSU reports of clashes across all major sectors and the successful repulsion of an assault in the Sumy region.

Tactical Successes:

• Successful counter-battery/SEAD in Crimea (previous sitrep) appears effective, and continued deep strike capability is imposing a high economic cost on the RF war effort (Saratov refinery halt).
• UAF reports tactical containment of RF units in the Kupyansk sector (11:20:54), demonstrating localized counter-attack effectiveness.

Strategic Diplomacy (CONTEXT ONLY): The second round of US-Ukraine talks in Berlin is ongoing, but the information environment suggests a highly contested diplomatic narrative (see Information Environment below).

Information environment / disinformation

The immediate information domain is dominated by competing diplomatic narratives surrounding the Berlin talks. This constitutes a high-risk PSYOPS environment.

RF sources continue to deploy graphic, derogatory content (11:14:36) and use domestic crime reports (11:07:34) for psychological subversion and dehumanization, suggesting a shift toward highly aggressive, non-military propaganda aimed at internal UAF morale.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (RF Tactical Exploitation in Pokrovsk): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will prioritize reinforcing or exploiting the close proximity fighting confirmed near Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. This operation will likely involve concentrated, short-duration assaults aimed at exhausting local UAF reserves and creating a local decision point before the arrival of the main artillery surge (expected in 24-48h). RF aviation support (KAB/FAB) will remain high in the sector.

MDCOA (Northern Logistical Shaping Strike): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF forces utilize the newly detected UAV vector (Vilshany/Zlatopil) to conduct coordinated strike operations targeting logistics or C2 infrastructure in the northeastern UAF rear. The objective is to simultaneously degrade UAF ability to maneuver reserves while maintaining pressure on the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk flanks.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements