Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T11:03Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• Deep Kinetic Strike Confirmed (Odesa): RF forces conducted a multi-strike attack targeting the critical bridge infrastructure in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast (10:37, Два майора, HIGH). This confirms RF intent to interdict Southern Command logistics and expands the scope of the immediate deep strike threat identified in the previous sitrep.
• UAF Counter-Targeting Success (Zaporizhzhia): UAF 108th Separate TDB successfully utilized HIMARS (M30A1 Guided MLRS Rocket) to neutralize an RF crew operating a 'Molniya' kamikaze drone near Huliaipole (10:52, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH). This demonstrates responsive UAF counter-battery capacity against RF UAS operators.
• Second Round US-Ukraine Negotiations: The second phase of negotiations between the US and Ukraine regarding security guarantees has commenced in Berlin (10:50, РБК-Україна, HIGH). This addresses a previous P4 diplomatic intelligence gap.
• RF Claimed Activity (Huliaipole): RF sources claimed two separate combat engagements near Huliaipole amidst snowy conditions, suggesting continued high-tempo localized assaults in the sector (10:41, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
• UAF Air Defense Adaptation Reinforced: Official confirmation was issued regarding the implementation of a new, district-level air raid alert system, reinforcing the previous report of adaptive measures against complex aerial threats (10:33, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Odesa / Zaporizhzhia)

• Zatoka Interdiction: The confirmed multi-strike on the Zatoka bridge targets a critical rail and road link supplying the Southern operational area. This strike is assessed as a high-value kinetic effort aimed at strangulation, likely leveraging deep strike assets such as cruise missiles or specialized Shahed variants. Damage assessment is CRITICAL (New P1).
• Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole Direction): The UAF HIMARS strike near Huliaipole (10:52) successfully disrupted an RF Molniya drone launch site. This precision engagement significantly degrades localized RF tactical ISR and organic fire correction capability. An air raid alert was active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (10:37-10:48), indicating the anticipated complex air attack cycle is ongoing.
• Huliaipole LOC: The presence of both UAF counter-targeting (HIMARS) and repeated RF claims of combat engagement (10:41) indicates that the LOC around Huliaipole remains heavily contested, validating its status as a critical zone.

Eastern Axis (Kostiantynivka)

• UAF "Khizhak" Brigade reported successful counter-UAS operations against FPV drones in Kostiantynivka (10:54, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM). This highlights the persistent, low-level threat posed by cheap kinetic UAS platforms in the immediate rear of the Donetsk front line.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Operations (Immediate Threat): The execution of the strike on the Zatoka bridge is the kinetic manifestation of the RF ISR activity observed in the previous sitrep (10:30 UAV detection over rear areas). This confirms the RF strategy of simultaneous pressure across multiple logistical axes (Pyatikhatki, Dnipro, now Odesa). Judgment: The RF MLCOA remains deep logistical strangulation, utilizing complex strikes to test UAF AD and degrade strategic resilience.

RF Strategy and Intent: The high-level RF MoD SITREP (10:42) is routine information warfare, claiming broad progress without specific verifiable details. This is intended for strategic reassurance domestically. RF ground operations, particularly in Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole), appear focused on maintaining tactical pressure concurrent with deep strike operations.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Precision: The HIMARS strike on the Molniya drone crew showcases UAF ability to rapidly prosecute high-value, ephemeral targets using precision munitions, effectively neutralizing RF targeting chains. This is a key defensive adaptation against RF UAS proliferation (Belief: Drone Strike by Ukrainian forces on Military Personnel in Active Combat Zone, 0.254008).

Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's meeting with Finnish President Stubb and the commencement of the second round of US security guarantee talks in Berlin (10:34, 10:50) underscore sustained international political alignment and effort to formalize long-term security commitments, providing strategic depth to the UAF defense effort.

Information / Morale: UAF Commander Brovdi's statement rejecting any notion of halting operations reinforces the strategic "red line" set by the President regarding Donbas and maintains high morale focus (10:55).

Information environment / disinformation

• RF PSYOPS (Energy Crisis): RF channels are actively amplifying predictions of extreme energy outages (up to 22 hours) in Kyiv during cold weather (10:57, Операция Z, HIGH deployment confidence). This aims to increase public anxiety, erode confidence in UAF leadership, and potentially spur hybrid activity (e.g., unrest at TCCs, as noted in the Daily Report).
• International Pressure: The EU imposed sanctions on several prominent Russian figures and, notably, a US citizen for supporting Russia (10:57, 10:58). These diplomatic moves are intended to increase the cost of supporting RF aggression and are used by UAF IO to demonstrate global solidarity.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Exploitation of Zatoka Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will monitor the Zatoka bridge for damage and traffic flow changes. Follow-up strikes against nearby alternate logistical routes, repair teams, or local infrastructure supporting Odesa port/rail facilities are highly likely within the next 6-12 hours to maximize the interdictive effect. This operation aligns with the broader complex air strike targeting logistics nodes identified by the previous ISR wave.

MDCOA (Ground Assault Preemption): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF ground forces in the Eastern Axis (specifically Pokrovsk, due to 260th GRAU prediction) may attempt preemptive localized probing attacks or heavy spoiling attacks before the arrival of the massive artillery surge (predicted 24-48h, Daily Report). This is intended to fix UAF reserves and prevent UAF forces from benefiting from the logistical pause imposed by the incoming surge.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements