Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T10:33Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAF Strategic Intent Confirmed: President Zelenskyy publicly designated the unilateral withdrawal from Donbas as a “red line” in negotiations, rejecting discussion of the matter (10:17, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH). This reinforces the current operational guidance for sustained defense in the Eastern Axis.
• RF Reconnaissance Wave Detected: Enemy UAVs (likely reconnaissance) were detected and engaged by AD assets over key operational rear areas: East Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and West Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (10:30, Air Force, HIGH). This activity immediately precedes potential deep strike operations targeting logistics or C2.
• UAF Tactical Success (Lyman): The SIGNUM battalion of the UAF 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reported successfully engaging and neutralizing an RF assault element in the Lyman direction (10:05, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM).
• UAF Air Defense Adaptation: Ukraine is introducing a new, upgraded approach to declaring air raid warnings (10:27, РБК-Україна, HIGH), indicating adaptation to the increased complexity and speed of recent RF aerial threats (e.g., R-60/Geran variants).
• RF Claims Massive UAV Interception: RF sources claimed the interception and destruction of 130 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs during the 8-hour period from 23:00 Dec 14 to 07:00 Dec 15 (10:20, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). This claim is highly inflated and lacks corroboration.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Lyman / Pokrovsk)

• Lyman Direction: UAF 53rd Mech Bde reported successful defensive action, degrading localized RF assault capacity (10:05).
• Pokrovsk / Myrnohrad: UAF forces re-confirmed the establishment of additional, redundant logistical routes to sustain forces in this critical sector (10:28). This action directly mitigates the threats identified by the confirmed RF Pyatikhatki strike claim (Previous SitRep).

Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk / Zaporizhzhia)

• ISR Operations: The detection of enemy reconnaissance UAVs (10:30) over Dnipropetrovsk and West Zaporizhzhia suggests RF forces are conducting terminal guidance refinement or damage assessment checks prior to launching the anticipated complex air strike (MLCOA, Previous SitRep) or KAB strikes (Previous Daily Report).
• Pyatikhatki / Peschanoye: The verification requirements for the claimed RF logistical strike at Pyatikhatki and the claimed tactical advance at Peschanoye remain CRITICAL (P1 Gaps).

Deep Rear (RF Territory)

• Internal Security Incidents: A fire was reported at a Voenkomat (military enlistment office) in Lyubertsy, near Moscow (10:20, MEDIUM). RF FSB claimed detention of SBU-recruited arsonists across five regions (10:26, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). These events highlight persistent internal pressure and ongoing Ukrainian deep influence operations.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Shaping Operations (Immediate Threat): The detection of reconnaissance UAVs across the logistical backbone (Kharkiv/Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia) signals that RF forces are setting the conditions for an imminent kinetic strike cycle (HIGH CONFIDENCE). These UAVs are likely gathering targeting data on repair efforts, emergency logistical movements, or newly established command posts.

RF C2 and Sustainment: RF Minister of Defense Belousov held a meeting with ONF volunteer activists (10:19). This is assessed as a continued effort to rationalize and integrate the sprawling civilian support network into formal MoD logistics, aiming to improve efficiency and resource allocation for frontline units facing logistical constraints.

Information Warfare / Strategic Claims: The claim of 130 UAV intercepts (10:20) serves to create a narrative of impenetrable RF air defense capability, likely intended to reassure the domestic audience following documented UAF deep strikes (e.g., Uryupinsk oil depot, Crimea SEAD).

Friendly activity (UAF)

Strategic Resilience: President Zelenskyy’s categorical rejection of a unilateral withdrawal from Donbas (10:17) solidifies the political will backing the current operational defense, providing the strategic depth necessary for UAF commanders to sustain high-intensity operations in the Eastern Axis.

Internal Governance: The Office of the General Prosecutor confirmed a successful anti-corruption operation involving over $500M UAH in defense funds (10:19). While unrelated to frontline combat, maintaining financial integrity in the defense sector is critical for securing continued international aid and maintaining public trust.

Force Protection / Adaptation: The announced new approach to air raid warnings (10:27) indicates proactive measures to address the limitations of existing systems against complex, low-RCS threats (Shaheds, R-60 Gerans).

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Economic Projection: Head of RDIF, Dmitriev, claimed the Central Bank of Russia would win a lawsuit against Euroclear to recover frozen assets (10:06). This narrative is designed to project economic strength and legal confidence internationally, counteracting the impact of Western sanctions.
• RF Internal Social Strain: A pro-RF channel advertised training for crisis psychologists, citing a growing deficit and high need among combat participants and their families (10:05). This provides a rare, indirect indicator of significant, unmanaged psychological strain within RF military and society due to the conflict.
• UAF Public Opinion: New polling re-confirmed that Ukrainians are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary (10:11), providing strong public consensus for the strategic "red line" set by the President regarding Donbas withdrawal.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Immediate Kinetic Response to ISR): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will attempt to leverage the targeting data gathered by the recent reconnaissance wave (10:30) to execute a coordinated complex air strike. Targets will primarily focus on critical logistics nodes and infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia/Odesa triangle, likely utilizing the new 100kg Shahed variant and specialized guided munitions (KABs/R-60 Gerans) to exploit newly identified vulnerabilities or confirmed strike damage (e.g., Pyatikhatki).

MDCOA (Increased Sabotage and IED/Arson Campaign in RF Rear): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Ukrainian Special Services (SSO/GUR) will likely increase efforts to execute deep sabotage operations within the RF border zone and rear areas, potentially exploiting the political impact of the Lyubertsy Voenkomat fire and the perceived vulnerabilities in RF internal security indicated by the FSB's counter-arson narrative.

Actionable Recommendation: J2/J3 (Forward Air Defense): Given the confirmed ISR activity over Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, increase the readiness level of Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and SHORAD systems in these areas to DEFCON 2 (imminent threat) and enforce immediate blackout/EMCON protocols around suspected high-value targets (railheads, C2 sites) to disrupt potential terminal guidance.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements