Situation Report

Situation Update (08:35Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Pyatykhatky Rail Infrastructure Struck (08:14Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Confirmed Russian strike damaged the railway station in Pyatykhatky, critical rail infrastructure supporting the Eastern and Southern Operational Commands. This represents a confirmed kinetic escalation targeting strategic logistics GLOCs.
• RF Claims Capture of Pischane (08:30Z, Воин DV, LOW): RF Vostok Group claimed operational control over the settlement of Pischane. This is an uncorroborated claim of tactical breakthrough, requiring immediate ISR verification, particularly in the context of recent intense fighting near Pokrovsk.
• UAF Air Defense Asset Attrition (08:17Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM): UAF coalition forces destroyed an RF 2S6 Tunguska Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Weapon (SPAAG) system on the temporarily occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, contributing to the degradation of RF forward air defenses.
• Confirmed Strategic Air Attack Preparation (08:32Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Monitoring channels warn of Russian preparation for a massive air attack, with likely targets shifting focus toward objectives in Western Ukraine.
• UAF Force Structure Expansion Confirmed (08:06Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): The UAF 78th Separate Airborne Assault Regiment (78 OShP) confirmed an expansion of its organizational structure, despite domestic intelligence critiques regarding critical personnel shortages across existing brigades.
• Diplomatic Red Line Identified (08:27Z, Поддубный, MEDIUM): Reports citing Bild identify Ukraine's refusal to withdraw troops from Donbas as the specific "red line" causing friction in recent high-level peace negotiations with US representatives.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Sustained Rail Interdiction & Imminent Air Assault)

1. Logistical Interdiction: The kinetic strike against the Pyatykhatky rail hub confirms the RF strategy of targeting the depth of the UAF defense, specifically aiming to delay or isolate UAF forward operational units from Class V resupply. This requires immediate UAF logistical mitigation measures.
2. Imminent Air Threat Focus Shift: Monitoring suggests a complex air attack is forthcoming, with potential targeting of Western Ukraine (08:32Z). This operational shift may indicate RF prioritizing the interdiction of Western security assistance flow over immediate front-line support, potentially utilizing the high-payload Shahed variant identified in the previous daily report.
3. Potential Ground Escalation: The unconfirmed claim of taking Pischane (08:30Z) suggests RF Vostok Group is maintaining localized offensive initiative. If verified, this would indicate an RF attempt to fix UAF reserves and exploit perceived weaknesses outside the main Pokrovsk-Avdiivka axis.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Sustained Attrition Operations: UAF forces in the Southern OC successfully targeted and destroyed 20 RF artillery systems and crucial tactical AD (2S6 Tunguska). This dedicated SEAD/Counter-Battery effort is vital for preserving UAF combat power and drone freedom of maneuver.
2. Force Generation Adaptation: The official expansion of the 78 OShP (08:06Z) highlights UAF command's proactive effort to create more robust, integrated combat formations capable of independent airborne assault operations, despite acknowledged constraints on personnel availability.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Diplomatic Fissure Amplification: RF state media and associated military bloggers continue to hammer the narrative of strategic diplomatic impasse (08:10Z, 08:26Z), specifically focusing on the reported US refusal to compromise with Kyiv. RF analysts have zeroed in on the Donbas troop withdrawal as the key point of friction (08:27Z).
   • Analytic Judgement: This messaging aims to exert direct psychological pressure on Kyiv to negotiate, implying that continued war rests solely on maximalist UAF demands, thus fracturing Western solidarity.
2. Internal RF Narrative Consolidation: The FSB's successful operation and subsequent media reporting (08:13Z) regarding the capture of UAF-coerced saboteurs is designed to restore domestic confidence in internal security and counter the psychological impact of successful UAF deep strikes against targets like the Uryupinsk oil depot (Previous Daily Report).
3. NATO Flank Deterrence: Estonian commencement of fortifications on the Russian border (08:10Z) is a new strategic signal in the IE, reflecting increasing NATO nervousness regarding RF aggression, which Kyiv can leverage to demonstrate the broader threat posed by the RF.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Massive Air Assault and Continued Rail Interdiction. RF is highly likely to launch the preparatory air assault targeting Western Ukraine (08:32Z) within the next 6-12 hours, leveraging the expanded Shahed payload and the existing IADS gap created by recent UAF SEAD missions (Crimea). This will be paired with continued stand-off fire (KABs/MLRS) against UAF concentrations and logistical nodes near the Pyatykhatky damaged area to exploit the disruption. (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Localized Breakthrough Exploitation. RF Vostok Group attempts to confirm and exploit the claimed capture of Pischane (08:30Z) or launches a similar localized armored effort on the Eastern Axis, utilizing the incoming 260th GRAU artillery surge to suppress UAF counterattacks. Success in establishing a localized salient would force UAF to divert scarce reserves from the Pokrovsk defense. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements