Situation Report

Situation Update (08:05Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Polish MiG-29 Transfer Proposed (07:36Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): Polish Deputy Minister of Defense stated that the potential transfer of 6-8 MiG-29 fighter aircraft will be discussed during President Zelenskyy’s visit to Poland. This represents a substantial potential boost to UAF tactical air sustainment.
• FSB Internal Security Operation Confirmed (08:00Z, Военкор Котенок, HIGH): FSB confirmed the detention of ten (10) individuals across five (5) RF regions, alleged to have conducted sabotage/terrorist acts orchestrated by Ukrainian special services via blackmail. This amplifies the RF internal counter-intelligence narrative.
• Zaporizhzhia KAB Strike Confirmed (07:57Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): RF forces utilized Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against a civilian target (horse club) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This confirms the previously assessed expansion of RF stand-off fire into rear logistical/population centers.
• US/Ukraine Peace Negotiation Difficulty (07:53Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): US negotiators are reportedly applying pressure and refusing to compromise with President Zelenskyy regarding terms of a peace agreement, citing the Wall Street Journal. This indicates significant strategic friction in the diplomatic sphere.
• EU Sanctions Targeting RF Fleet (07:58Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): EU leadership, per Estonian PM Kallas, is set to sanction an additional 40 RF “shadow fleet” oil tankers today, directly targeting the RF maritime economic center of gravity.
• RF Winter Campaign Funding Appeal (07:56Z, Colonelcassad/ZOV LNR, HIGH): Pro-RF military channels initiated a public fundraising campaign explicitly for the "Winter Campaign 2025-2026," confirming continued reliance on supplemental public funding for unit sustainment and winterization efforts.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Sustained Shaping Fires & Deep Strike Counter-Response)

1. Fire Assault Objectives: The verified KAB strike in Zaporizhzhia (07:57Z) indicates RF is not restricting stand-off precision munitions to hard military or energy targets, but utilizing them to degrade morale and force dispersal in key rear areas supporting the Southern and Eastern Axes. This reinforces the analytic judgment that RF intends to maintain high pressure across the depth of the UAF defense.
2. Logistical Strain Confirmation: The public fundraising appeal for the "Winter Campaign 2025-2026" (07:56Z) provides further evidence that RF ground forces, specifically LNR-affiliated units, face systemic gaps in providing essential materiel for sustained operations, especially as winter approaches. This reliance on non-state funding remains a critical RF sustainment vulnerability.
3. IO Leverage of Internal Threats: The FSB is consolidating its narrative regarding the arrest of alleged Ukrainian saboteurs (08:00Z). This operation serves the dual purpose of neutralizing actual threats while simultaneously bolstering the domestic security narrative and delegitimizing UAF intelligence operations as acts of terrorism/blackmail.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Air Force Sustainment Boost (Potential): Discussions regarding the transfer of 6-8 Polish MiG-29s (07:36Z) represent a critical opportunity to offset attrition and maintain high readiness rates for UAF fast jet operations, a critical component of supporting ground forces and deep strike missions.
2. Energy Sector Governance: The initiation of candidate selection for supervisory boards of key energy companies (07:36Z) is an essential governance step aimed at enhancing the resilience and effectiveness of the critical national infrastructure, especially in light of the massive, recent UAV swarm attacks (Previous SitRep).
3. Domestic Resolve Confirmed: Polling data indicating 63% of Ukrainian citizens are ready to endure the war as long as necessary (08:02Z) demonstrates strong civil-military fusion and robust national morale, countering RF narratives of attrition fatigue.
4. Naval Intent Signal: UAF sources are publicly signaling anticipation of successful action against the BSF (07:33Z). This is likely intended to maintain pressure on RF naval assets and prepare the information environment for potential BSF losses.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Strategic Diplomatic Friction: The IE is dominated by reports of "difficult negotiations" between the US and Ukraine in Berlin (07:49Z). RF state media and military bloggers continue to amplify the narrative of NATO rejection (07:56Z). The UAF counter-narrative must pivot quickly to frame the US refusal to compromise on peace terms (07:53Z) as US support for a maximalist Ukrainian victory, rather than pressure toward concession.
2. Economic Warfare Messaging: The pending EU sanctions on 40 shadow fleet tankers (07:58Z) will be leveraged by UAF IO to emphasize the tightening economic vice on Russia's ability to fund kinetic operations.
3. RF Internal Security IO: FSB messaging (07:42Z, 08:00Z) is aimed at portraying UAF intelligence activities within Russia as illegitimate, criminal operations driven by coercion, rather than effective deep-strike capability. UAF IO must continue to focus on the military necessity and effectiveness of targeting RF military infrastructure.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Diplomacy and Economic Escalation. The immediate focus will shift from kinetic action (following the UAV swarm) to the diplomatic and economic domains. The EU sanction decision (40 tankers) will be announced, and RF will issue strong retaliatory statements regarding the financial domain (e.g., Euroclear litigation). RF ground forces will maintain KAB pressure (Kharkiv/Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia) while refitting for renewed mechanized attempts following the expected artillery munitions surge (260th GRAU activity, Previous Daily Report). (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Black Sea/Naval Retaliation. Following recent losses and UAF signalling, RF BSF assets, potentially supported by naval aviation, launch a high-volume anti-ship missile attack targeting Odesa port infrastructure or a UAF naval drone staging area. This would be a direct attempt to reassert control over the maritime domain in response to recent UAF success and perceived intent. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements