Situation Report

Situation Update (07:03Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Southern Axis UAV Track Confirmed (06:44Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): The hostile UAV track previously reported near Zatoka has been confirmed active and is now tracked over Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, indicating the threat remains mobile and requires ongoing UAF Air Defense (AD) engagement.
• Critical Diplomatic Shift Reported (06:53Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): International media reports (Reuters, via UAF sources) indicate President Zelenskyy proposed abandoning NATO membership in exchange for comprehensive security guarantees during the Berlin negotiations. This potential shift must be immediately verified for strategic planning purposes.
• Logistical Interdiction Confirmed (06:43Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): RF strikes against energy infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region have caused operational delays to Ukrainian rail transport. This represents successful kinetic effects impacting UAF mobility and sustainment capacity on the Eastern Axis.
• Sustained RF Fire in Kharkiv (06:35Z, Синєгубов, HIGH): The Kharkiv Oblast Governor confirmed intense RF fire activity against 11 settlements in the last 24 hours, corroborating the heavy fire preparation phase implied by the previously reported TOS-1A deployment.
• UAF Attrition Sustained (06:47Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM): UAF FPV assets (414th BDE) successfully engaged and destroyed two RF logistical targets/personnel carriers on the Pokrovsk direction, maintaining localized kinetic pressure on RF forward lines.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Logistical Interdiction & Northern Axis Preparations)

1. Logistical Warfare Success: The kinetic impact resulting in rail delays in the Dnipropetrovsk region validates the RF strategy of targeting critical energy infrastructure to achieve logistical interdiction. This directly impacts UAF ability to rapidly reinforce or resupply the Eastern Axis.
2. Preparatory Fires Sustained (Kharkiv): The sustained high volume of fire against 11 settlements supports the previous assessment that RF is using the confirmed TOS-1A deployment (previous sitrep) to soften UAF defenses ahead of a possible mechanized assault (MLCOA).
3. Strategic Coercion: RF IO will immediately amplify the reported NATO concession leak, using it to fuel narratives of UAF desperation and further diplomatic isolation, attempting to degrade international and domestic support simultaneously.
4. Deep Strike Exchange: RF successfully used AD against a UAV targeting Moscow (06:42Z), confirming that UAF deep strike operations are still active against RF strategic targets, forcing Moscow to divert AD resources.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Rapid AD Deployment: UAF AD is maintaining an immediate response posture in the Southern Operational Zone, tracking and engaging the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi UAV threat.
2. Frontline Attrition Initiative: UAF maneuver units, particularly drone operators (414th BDE), are utilizing FPV technology to inflict high-value, localized attrition against vulnerable RF logistical elements in the Pokrovsk sector.
3. Strategic Communication: UAF sources are actively engaged in managing the sensitive political atmosphere surrounding the Berlin talks and the high-profile prisoner exchange from the previous reporting cycle, focusing on national unity (06:58Z, 07:00Z) amidst strategic uncertainty.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is bifurcated between an acute Strategic Policy Leak and entrenched Tactical Narratives.

1. NATO/Security Guarantee Leak: The Reuters-reported proposal by President Zelenskyy (06:53Z) is a highly disruptive strategic event. This is likely intended to shift diplomatic focus from immediate NATO accession to immediate security commitments necessary for stabilization and defense sustainment.
2. Internal RF Narrative Leak (Kupyansk): UAF sources are exploiting reported internal RF admissions of logistical difficulties and potential territorial losses in Kupyansk (06:52Z). This narrative is critical to counter the RF push in Vovchansk by suggesting significant vulnerabilities elsewhere on the Northern/Eastern junction.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Logistical Adaptation and Strategic Messaging. UAF command (OC East/J4) will implement immediate contingency plans to reroute rail logistics affected by the Dnipropetrovsk strikes, likely shifting traffic to road transport (HIGH stress on Class III assets). Simultaneously, Kyiv will issue formalized public statements to manage the fallout from the reported NATO concession, seeking to frame the move as a pragmatic path to immediate security guarantees rather than capitulation. RF will sustain high-intensity shaping fires in Kharkiv. (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Tactical Penetration Exploitation and Policy Crisis. The RF high-volume fires in Kharkiv achieve lethal effect, allowing a localized mechanized penetration near Vovchansk. This tactical crisis is compounded by the persistent logistical constraints imposed by the Dnipropetrovsk rail damage, preventing timely resupply or reinforcement. The diplomatic uncertainty from the NATO leak simultaneously strains cohesion among Western partners, slowing the release of critical aid packages. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements