Situation Report

Situation Update (06:33Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Immediate UAV Threat Detected (06:21Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): UAF Air Force issued an immediate alert for enemy UAVs approaching the coast from the Black Sea near Zatoka. This confirms an active kinetic threat targeting the Southern Operational Zone (Odesa Oblast), partially addressing the P1 standing requirement from the previous cycle.
• RF TOS-1A Deployment Confirmed (06:31Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims the use of the TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system by the "Sever Group" against UAF positions in the Kharkiv region. This indicates a tactical escalation and commitment of high-value, area-denial assets on the Northern/Eastern Axis junction.
• Kharkiv IO Focus (06:03Z, Kadyrov_95, LOW): RF propaganda (Akhmat/Kadyrov-affiliated sources) claims UAF positions are worsening in the Vovchansk area (Kharkiv direction), citing the involvement of specific units (Akhmat, 128th BDE). This suggests a focused RF IO campaign designed to signal local tactical success or mask operational preparation in that sector.
• Berlin Talks Resumption Scheduled (06:23Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): US-Ukraine negotiations in Berlin are confirmed to resume around 12:00 Kyiv time (10:00Z). This manages the strategic IO environment by demonstrating diplomatic engagement, countering RF attempts to frame the initial session as a complete failure (06:18Z, Два майора).

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Northern Escalation & Deep Strike Counter)

1. Deployment of Area Denial Weapons (TOS-1A): The confirmed use of TOS-1A in the Kharkiv sector (MoD Russia, 06:31Z) is highly significant. This weapon system is typically deployed to clear entrenched positions or suppress defenses immediately prior to a major mechanized assault.
   • Assessment: Indicates RF intent to commit high-firepower resources to achieving a localized breakthrough or creating a decisive fire effect in the Vovchansk/Kupyansk approaches, corroborating the IO push (06:03Z).
2. Immediate UAV Threat (Southern Axis): The launch of new UAVs targeting the Odesa sector confirms RF intent to exploit any perceived temporary degradation in UAF AD coverage following previous deep strike successes against the Crimean IADS (per previous daily report). The threat is active and requires immediate AD response.
3. IO Management (Diplomatic Domain): RF MILBLOGs are attempting to shape the narrative regarding the Berlin talks, minimizing the possibility of positive diplomatic movement for Ukraine and ensuring the focus remains on the domestic political implications of the "NATO pivot" reports.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Immediate AD Response: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and vectoring defensive assets against the new UAV threat near Zatoka, demonstrating rapid operational response capability.
2. Deep Operations Sustained: UAF maintains a sustained, high-volume kinetic attrition strategy against RF targets deep in the rear (16 claimed intercepts).
3. Strategic Communication Resilience: UAF sources are effectively managing the ongoing diplomatic narrative by providing timely updates regarding the continuation of high-level talks in Berlin, countering the RF narrative of failure or deadlock.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is characterized by two converging, high-intensity narratives:

1. Strategic Policy IO (Berlin Talks): RF sources are attempting to neutralize the operational impact of continued US-UA talks by portraying them as fruitless ("ended with nothing"). UAF counter-narratives focus on the upcoming 10:00Z resumption, emphasizing the working nature of the negotiations.
   • Analytic Judgment: The original MDCOA (Psychological Degradation related to policy) is transitioning into a Negotiation Deadlock IO campaign.
2. Tactical IO (Kharkiv Focus): The deployment claims of the elite Akhmat forces in Vovchansk (06:03Z) coupled with the official MoD report of TOS-1A use suggests a coordinated IO effort to generate the perception of RF momentum and UAF defensive collapse in the Kharkiv region. This may precede a renewed ground assault.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Successful AD Engagement and Kharkiv Shaping Fires. UAF Air Defense forces will successfully mitigate the immediate UAV threat over the Odesa sector. RF forces in the Kharkiv/Vovchansk area will utilize the confirmed TOS-1A systems and long-range fires to conduct intensive "shaping operations," designed to soften UAF forward defensive positions in preparation for potential ground maneuver, possibly coinciding with the arrival of materiel from the 260th GRAU surge. (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Odesa Infrastructure Compromise and Northern Breakthrough. The kinetic rotation succeeds: RF UAVs overwhelm or evade UAF AD, resulting in critical damage to a high-value asset in the Odesa region (e.g., port or C2 node). Concurrently, the intensive TOS-1A fires in Kharkiv achieve lethal effect, allowing RF forces (potentially Akhmat/128th BDE) to achieve a localized tactical penetration near Vovchansk, forcing UAF reserve commitment. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements