Situation Report

Situation Update (05:33Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Central Axis UAV Vector Shift (05:18Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): The strike UAV track previously targeting Cherkasy Oblast is now confirmed diverted toward Novo-Ukrainka, Kirovohrad Oblast. This confirms the rotational kinetic pressure has shifted from the south (Odesa/Tuzla, per previous sitrep) to a central intermediate logistical area.
• Persistent Deep Strike Confirmation (05:10Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed the interception of three additional UAF strike UAVs targeting the capital area. This reinforces the finding of successful UAF deep interdiction capabilities and continued operational tempo against RF strategic targets.
• RF Claim of Myrnohrad Encirclement (05:02Z, Rybar, LOW): Russian military bloggers claim the successful encirclement and near-capture of Myrnohrad (Donetsk Oblast, near Pokrovsk). This is a significant, high-tempo claim of tactical success which directly contradicts recent UAF defensive stability reports, but remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF or third-party sources.
• UAF Strategic Diplomatic Shift Reported (05:31Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Reports indicate that President Zelenskyy proposed abandoning Ukraine’s formal commitment to NATO membership in exchange for binding security guarantees from Western partners during high-level talks in Berlin. This represents a potentially critical shift in strategic security architecture.
• Confirmed Casualty Count, Zaporizhzhia (05:10Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Russian strikes over the past 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast resulted in 14 confirmed casualties. This highlights the sustained lethality of RF deep and intermediate kinetic operations against urban areas.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Rotational Strike & IO Escalation)

1. Rotational Kinetic Pressure (UAV): The immediate shift of the primary kinetic threat from the Odesa coastline back toward the Central Axis (Kirovohrad) is confirmed. This strategy continues to force UAF Air Defense (AD) resources to operate across highly disparate axes, limiting concentration of critical SHORAD/MRAD assets.
2. UAS and FPV Adaptation: RF is demonstrating tactical proficiency in utilizing FPV drones to target high-value, niche UAF assets, specifically ground robotic complexes (Colonelcassad, 05:05Z). This suggests active intelligence targeting of UAF technological advances and requires immediate counter-UAS (C-UAS) protocol adjustment for ground robotics operators.
3. Information Warfare (IW) Escalation (Myrnohrad): The Rybar claim of Myrnohrad encirclement (05:02Z) is assessed as an early, high-impact Information Operation designed to achieve multiple objectives:
   • External: Pressure UAF command to divert reserves from other sectors (e.g., Avdiivka or Kupiansk) to relieve a non-existent threat.
   • Internal: Undermine UAF morale and neutralize the positive narrative stemming from the 7 KShDV's successful defense near Pokrovsk (previous daily report).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Response: UAF Air Force (05:18Z) is actively tracking and engaging the new drone track over Kirovohrad Oblast.
• Deep Strike Operations: UAF deep strike effectiveness remains validated by repeated confirmed interceptions over Moscow, demonstrating continued operational reach and the ability to strike high-value political targets.
• Tactical Reporting: UAF General Staff (05:07Z, 05:14Z) continues synchronized dissemination of high Russian loss estimates (980 KIA), maintaining the narrative of attrition success against RF ground forces.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is dominated by two highly sensitive topics requiring immediate strategic communication management:

1. Diplomatic Security Shift: Reports regarding the potential abandonment of the NATO course (ASTRA, 05:31Z) will be seized upon by RF information operators to:

   • De-legitimize UAF political leadership as "capitulating" to Western pressure.
   • Drive a wedge between the UAF high command and political leadership, particularly regarding the historical strategic objective of NATO integration.
   • (Dempster-Shafer belief supports the existence of the proposal: 0.185747)

2. RF Tactical Victory Narrative: The Myrnohrad encirclement claim (Rybar) serves as an immediate, sharp escalation of RF tactical IO, intended to dominate the news cycle and overshadow confirmed UAF successes (Rostov infrastructure damage, Moscow strikes). UAF must rapidly counter this by releasing visual evidence (if available) confirming UAF control of Myrnohrad.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Neutralization of Central Axis Threat & Intensified IO. UAF AD assets will likely neutralize the incoming strike UAV targeting Novo-Ukrainka, preventing significant infrastructure damage. RF will then transition to maximizing exploitation of the Myrnohrad claim and the NATO security guarantee proposal across all propaganda channels, attempting to achieve strategic information dominance. Ground operations will likely remain stable on the Eastern Axis, awaiting the 260th GRAU materiel deployment (P1 gap). (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Successful Central Axis Strike & AD Overload. The rotary nature of RF strikes (Odesa -> Kirovohrad) successfully overloads UAF AD in the center, resulting in a successful strike on a critical logistics or command node near Novo-Ukrainka. Concurrently, the unconfirmed Odesa track (Tuzla) might resume kinetic activity, stretching UAF defenses past breaking point. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements