Situation Report

Situation Update (05:03Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Deep Strike Vector Shift (04:51Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A new wave of strike UAVs was detected incoming from the Black Sea, vectored toward Tuzla, Odesa Oblast. This indicates an immediate shift in the RF kinetic effort from the Central Axis (Horodyshche) back toward the Southern Axis, threatening critical port/coastal infrastructure.
• Zaporizhzhia Air Threat Cleared (04:51Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The air raid alert across Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cancelled, indicating the immediate kinetic strike wave impacting the central logistical spine has ceased or been neutralized.
• Confirmed Infrastructure Damage in Rostov (04:59Z, Operatyvny ZSU, MEDIUM): Infrastructure failure confirmed in Rostov-on-Don, leading to the shutdown of TEP-2 (CHP-2) and subsequent widespread heating outages. This corroborates and amplifies previous reports of damage in Kamensky District (04:50Z, Два майора) and confirms successful UAF deep interdiction capabilities.
• RF Continues IO Amplification (04:48Z, Два майора, LOW): RF channels (MOD via Два майора) aggressively re-amplified the uncorroborated claim of intercepting 130 UAF fixed-wing UAVs overnight, despite concurrent reports of successful strikes on Moscow and Rostov infrastructure.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Rotational Strike Pattern & IO Counter-Narrative)

1. Rotational Deep Strike Pattern: RF is exhibiting tactical flexibility by shifting kinetic pressure immediately after a strike wave subsides. The move from Cherkasy/Zaporizhzhia to Odesa (Tuzla) indicates target list rotation aimed at stretching UAF AD resources across multiple operational sectors. This is consistent with the MDCOA of logistical strangulation via sustained kinetic pressure.
2. Logistical Sustainment (RF): The effectiveness of UAF deep strikes against critical Russian rear infrastructure (Rostov TEP-2 failure, Uryupinsk oil depot strike - previous daily report) directly challenges RF operational readiness, particularly regarding energy and fuel supply in the winter context.
3. Information Warfare (IW): RF continues to heavily leverage the "130 UAV Interception" claim.
   • Intent: Project operational dominance, neutralize the psychological and logistical impact of UAF deep strikes, and reassure the domestic population following strikes on Moscow and Rostov.
   • Assessment: The claim is assessed as exaggerated and uncorroborated (LOW Confidence on the number), but the synchronized amplification across multiple channels (TASS, MOD, Два майора) confirms a high-priority centralized IW directive.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Response: UAF Air Force is currently tracking the new strike UAV track targeting Tuzla, Odesa Oblast, and implementing standard engagement procedures.
• Deep Strike Efficacy: Recent UAF deep operations are validated by confirmed infrastructure damage in Rostov, demonstrating continued reach and effectiveness against high-value RF rear targets. This success should be leveraged heavily in the information environment to counter RF claims of impenetrable AD.
• Diplomatic Front (IO): RF media amplification of the diplomatic spat between Hungary and Ukraine's FM suggests Budapest remains a vulnerable point for RF influence operations aiming to destabilize NATO/EU support structures.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is dominated by two competing kinetic narratives:

1. RF Defensive Triumph Narrative: RF channels are rapidly disseminating the 130-UAV shoot-down figure, attempting to frame the recent deep strikes as minor, unsuccessful probes, thereby reinforcing internal morale (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.225 Morale Boost).
2. UAF Kinetic Success Narrative: The confirmation of TEP-2 failure and subsequent heating outages in Rostov provides a powerful, tangible counter-narrative, exposing the vulnerability of RF infrastructure to UAF strikes.

Actionable Intelligence: UAF C2 must ensure rapid and documented dissemination of BDA regarding the Rostov failure to the international and domestic public to neutralize the RF defensive narrative immediately.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Successful Engagement of Odesa Threat & Sustained IW. UAF AD units will likely intercept the incoming UAV wave targeting Tuzla, preventing critical damage. RF will conclude its rotational strike wave and consolidate IW efforts, maintaining the pressure on the energy sector (PSYOP) while amplifying the exaggerated interception numbers. Ground operations remain largely static while RF waits for the 260th GRAU materiel deployment. (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Critical Strike Success in Odesa. The new UAV variant (100kg payload confirmed in previous daily report) successfully evades AD and strikes critical infrastructure (e.g., rail/port facilities) near Tuzla, causing significant damage that impacts grain/weapon transport routes. This would achieve tactical interdiction success while inflicting severe economic damage. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements