Situation Report

Situation Update (04:35Z 15 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Central Axis UAV Vector Change (04:09Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Confirmed enemy UAV track now targeting Horodyshche, Cherkasy Oblast. This shifts the kinetic deep strike vector slightly northwest from Zaporizhzhia, targeting central regional logistical nodes.
• New Energy Sector PSYOP (04:04Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF information channels initiated a dedicated disinformation campaign focusing on alleged systemic corruption within Ukraine’s energy sector, utilizing complex diagrammatic sociograms. This expands the RF Information Warfare (IW) effort beyond high command figures to critical economic infrastructure integrity.
• RF Massive UAV Interception Claim (04:17Z, TASS/MOD RF, LOW): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) claimed the destruction of 130 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs overnight across multiple regions. This figure is extremely high and uncorroborated, representing a major escalation in RF counter-UAV Information Operations designed to negate recent UAF deep strikes.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (IW Diversification and Kinetic Persistence)

1. Strategic Strike Persistence: RF is maintaining the multi-domain (KAB/UAV) strike sequence against Ukrainian logistical depth. The shift of the UAV vector toward Horodyshche (Cherkasy) suggests tactical flexibility in target selection, reinforcing the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) of logistical strangulation.
2. Information Warfare Diversification (CRITICAL CHANGE): The new PSYOP targeting energy sector corruption (04:04Z) is a significant development. This aims to: a. Degrade public trust and internal political cohesion (following the high-command targeting narrative). b. Undermine international confidence and support for Ukraine’s infrastructure recovery efforts. c. Precondition the information environment for likely upcoming kinetic strikes against energy infrastructure. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
3. RF Narrative Amplification: The synchronized claim of shooting down 130 UAF UAVs (04:17Z onwards) is designed to project overwhelming defensive success domestically and dilute the narrative surrounding recent UAF deep strikes into RF territory (e.g., Uryupinsk). (Confidence: LOW, regarding the number; HIGH, regarding intent)

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense (AD) Engagement: UAF Air Force is currently tracking the confirmed UAV threat directed toward Horodyshche, Cherkasy Oblast, employing interception protocols.
• Operational Security (OPSEC): UAF C2 must immediately address the escalating and diversifying nature of RF Information Warfare, especially the corrosive narratives targeting internal integrity (high command and energy sector).

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is characterized by two parallel and escalating RF campaigns:

1. Internal Division (Previous): Targeting military leadership (Budanov/Zelenskyy loyalty).
2. Economic Subversion (NEW): Targeting the structural integrity of the Ukrainian state via corruption claims in the critical energy sector. This narrative is highly dangerous during winter and must be proactively countered.
3. Counter-UAV Success Narrative: The massive, rapid dissemination of the 130-UAV shoot-down claim suggests high-priority messaging aimed at reinforcing the domestic perception of Russian defensive strength and neutralizing the perceived threat from UAF deep strikes.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Completion of Initial Kinetic Strike Wave. RF will complete the current complex strike wave, with UAVs targeting logistical nodes in the Central Axis (Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia) while monitoring BDA from the confirmed KAB strikes (04:01Z). IW pressure will remain sustained and highly active, seeking to exploit political and economic sensitivities. Expect the threat level in Cherkasy Oblast to remain elevated until interception or departure of the 04:09Z track. (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Rail Interdiction Success in Central Ukraine. A successful kinetic strike (KAB or heavy Shahed variant) hits a primary rail choke point or large fuel storage facility near Zaporizhzhia or the newly targeted Cherkasy area. This would significantly disrupt logistical flow (Classes I, III, V) to the Eastern Axis, providing RF ground forces (in preparation for the 260th GRAU surge) a decisive advantage. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements