KAB Strikes Confirmed, Zaporizhzhia (04:01Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast have been detected. This confirms the enemy's shift to high-payload strikes against the Central/Southern logistical nexus and validates the MDCOA threat identified in the previous daily report.
Southern Axis UAV Focus Narrows (03:51Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Enemy UAVs originating from the Black Sea are confirmed approaching the coastal area of Zatoka (Odesa Oblast). This refines the primary maritime strike vector for the current kinetic shaping phase.
Zaporizhzhia Alert Volatility (03:47Z/03:55Z, Zapo. Admin, HIGH): An air raid alert was lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 03:47Z but was immediately re-issued at 03:55Z, preceding the confirmed KAB strikes. This indicates close tactical synchronization between enemy reconnaissance, targeting, and launch execution.
New RF Fragmentation PSYOP (03:34Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): RF state media initiated a specific disinformation campaign, citing an ex-SBU source to claim that GUR Chief Budanov lacks sufficient loyalty to President Zelenskyy. This represents a dedicated information operation aimed at creating internal fragmentation within the Ukrainian high command structure.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sector
Assessment
Details
Central Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Kirovohrad)
CRITICAL KINETIC ESCALATION
The confirmed launch of KABs targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (04:01Z) signals the start of high-destructive payload engagement against the Southern logistical spine. This targets infrastructure adjacent to the critical Dnipro River crossing points and threatens the sustainment of OC East forces.
Southern Axis (Odesa / Kherson)
SUSTAINED KINETIC SHAPING
UAV activity has been narrowed to the Zatoka region, suggesting specific targeting of coastal or maritime access infrastructure (e.g., bridge access, port facilities). This activity continues to stress UAF Air Defense (AD) assets during the primary strike window.
Eastern Axis
STABLE (Awaiting Artillery Surge)
No new kinetic updates. Operational focus remains on maintaining defensive positions (e.g., Pokrovsk) while the RF logistical flow, highlighted by the 260th GRAU surge, is being finalized for deployment.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Current Threat Level: CRITICAL (KAB/UAV Synchronization)
Strike Synchronization Execution: RF is currently executing the predicted strategic strike package. The confirmation of KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia—following the initial UAV shaping runs in Cherkasy and Odesa—indicates a successful synchronization of multi-domain assets (High Confidence). KABs, with their large warheads, pose an immediate and severe risk to hardened logistical and C2 facilities.
Psychological Warfare Intensity: RF continues to escalate its Information Warfare (IW) campaign. The targeting of high-profile security figures (Budanov) aims to degrade trust in the chain of command and amplify existing political tensions (Medium Confidence, supported by DS belief in IW). This is simultaneous with the release of standard exaggerated casualty figures (4.1k weekly losses in LNR area) intended for domestic consumption and foreign media amplification (Unconfirmed, Low Confidence).
Logistical Interdiction Confirmed: The KAB targeting of Zaporizhzhia directly correlates with the MDCOA of logistical strangulation, threatening to sever the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) supplying the Eastern Axis. The KAB/new 100kg Shahed variant combination presents a significant challenge to UAF logistical resilience.
Friendly activity (UAF)
UAF Air Defense (AD) assets are engaged in responding to the combined threat profile:
Immediate interception protocols are active against the confirmed UAV tracks approaching Zatoka.
AD and target defense protocols are initiated in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to mitigate damage from the high-velocity KAB attacks. The volatility of the local air alert status (lifted, then re-issued quickly) demonstrates the challenge of maintaining readiness against fast-moving, high-tier threats.
Recommendation: UAF C2 must prioritize counter-messaging regarding the Budanov/loyalty PSYOP immediately to prevent potential morale degradation or trust erosion among service personnel.
Information environment / disinformation
The Information Environment is marked by two key, concurrent RF efforts:
Internal Fragmentation Narrative: The TASS claim regarding GUR Chief Budanov (03:34Z) is designed to sow distrust between senior military intelligence leadership and the Presidential Office. This targets the cognitive domain by suggesting internal weakness and conflict at the highest level.
RF Social Legitimacy Building: The publicizing of the Russian Government's support for a bill granting educational quotas to SVO widows (04:01Z) serves to reinforce domestic support for the conflict, signaling that the state values and compensates the sacrifice of its soldiers. This aims to maintain recruitment and reduce internal dissent linked to casualties.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Sustained Multi-Domain Strikes Leading to Ground Pressure.
The strategic strike window (03:30Z-05:00Z) is currently being executed with high-value KAB and UAV strikes targeting key logistical and C2 nodes in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa. RF will sustain this pressure to degrade UAF defensive capabilities and supply flow, creating optimal conditions for the arrival of the 260th GRAU artillery surge on the Eastern Axis within the next 24-48 hours.
(Confidence: HIGH)
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Logistical Interdiction Success.
RF achieves a successful KAB strike on a major rail marshaling yard or POL depot within Zaporizhzhia Oblast, severely limiting UAF resupply capacity on the Eastern Axis. This success would coincide with a major RF ground assault on the Pokrovsk sector supported by the newly arrived 260th GRAU materiel, capitalizing on UAF supply shortages.
(Confidence: MEDIUM)
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Priority
Gap / Request
Justification / Need
P1 (CRITICAL)
KAB Strike Damage Assessment (Zaporizhzhia)
Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) required for confirmed KAB strikes. Determine if primary logistical targets (rail, POL, C2) were hit, which dictates immediate UAF rerouting/contingency plans.
P1 (CRITICAL)
Ballistic Launch Early Warning (REITERATED)
Maintain continuous SIGINT/EW monitoring for launch signatures, as KABs are typically launched from fast jets and may be followed by slower cruise/ballistic missiles in the predicted complex strike wave.
P2 (URGENT)
Zatoka UAV Interdiction Success & Target
Verify successful interdiction of the Zatoka-bound UAVs and analyze flight path/terminal trajectory to confirm specific intent (e.g., bridge targeting vs. port infrastructure).
P2 (URGENT)
Scale of Budanov PSYOP Dissemination
HUMINT/OSINT collection to determine the reach of the TASS/ex-SBU narrative (03:34Z) within the UAF troop environment (internal comms, Telegram groups).
P3 (PRIORITY)
260th GRAU Outflow Vector (REITERATED)
Continuous monitoring for rail movement departing the 260th GRAU arsenal. Confirmation of destination remains essential for predicting the timing and location of the Eastern Axis main effort.
