Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T03:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• New Deep Penetration Axis (03:24Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A UAV was detected in Western Cherkasy Oblast, moving South. This shifts the operational focus for deep penetration efforts and maintains kinetic pressure on central logistics hubs, potentially targeting areas adjacent to the previously identified Kirovohrad threat vector.
• Southern Axis UAV Surge (03:11Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A UAV track was confirmed entering the Black Sea operational zone from Southern Kherson Oblast, heading toward Odesa. This confirms continued RF shaping fires ahead of the anticipated strategic missile launch window (MLCOA).
• RF PSYOP Detail Confirmed (03:06Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): RF sources claim success using a novel psychological operation (PSYOP): dropping fake US currency bearing QR codes that link directly to Telegram surrender channels. This confirms an active, digitally integrated RF information warfare effort targeting UAF morale and cohesion.
• Kherson Immediate Threat (03:16Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A UAV was detected approaching Kherson city from the East, indicating immediate tactical reconnaissance or a precision strike threat against forward UAF positions or C2 nodes in the city.
• RF Rear Area Alert Lifted (03:09Z, Local Official, MEDIUM): The “Yellow” security threat level was lifted in an unspecified RF region (likely linked to the recent UAF deep strike area), suggesting RF authorities have assessed the immediate threat to their strategic rear areas has concluded for this cycle.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: CRITICAL (Strike Shaping and Logistical Focus)

1. Strike Synchronization (UAV): RF is executing simultaneous UAV operations across three distinct vectors (Odesa, Kherson, Cherkasy), maximizing the geographic dispersion required of UAF AD assets. This validates the MLCOA of exhausting AD prior to the main high-speed missile strike package.
2. Information Warfare Integration: The confirmed use of QR-coded fake currency represents a high-evolution PSYOP tactic. This leverages low-cost, high-volume physical distribution (airdrop) combined with the persistent digital domain (Telegram bot) to target low morale amongst frontline troops (DS belief confidence support). The purpose is to degrade C2 by inducing battlefield confusion and promoting surrender, which is particularly effective during high-intensity fighting phases (e.g., awaiting the 260th GRAU surge).
3. Logistical Threat Persists: The UAV in Western Cherkasy Oblast continues the deep penetration pattern, directly threatening critical rail and highway nodes that support UAF forces on the Eastern Axis. Analysts assess this UAV may be targeting POL storage or major rail marshaling yards West of the Dnipro River.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense (AD) assets are currently managing multiple, simultaneous UAV penetration efforts.

• Immediate UAF AD response is required in the Southern Operational Command (OC South) area to interdict the Odesa-bound UAV before it threatens coastal infrastructure and the Cherkasy UAV to protect the central logistical spine.
• UAF forces should be immediately briefed on the new RF QR-code PSYOP tactic to mitigate its cognitive impact, especially among front-line units where morale may be strained.

Information environment / disinformation

The most significant development is the specific mechanics of the newly confirmed RF PSYOP campaign (03:06Z).

Actionable Information Warfare (IW) Assessment:

• Methodology: RF is employing a highly integrated hybrid tactic: physical delivery (leafleting) + digital access (QR code/Telegram).
• Vulnerability Exploited: This targets the economic anxieties and potential communication gaps of UAF soldiers, using the promise of safe surrender via a digital medium that offers immediate, discreet access.
• Analytic Judgment: This is a sophisticated effort to increase the rate of UAF battlefield losses without kinetic expenditure. UAF C2 must immediately issue counter-messaging and technical warnings regarding the security risks of interacting with hostile Telegram bots.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Strategic Strike Peak Coincidence. RF remains on track to execute the anticipated high-volume ballistic/cruise missile attack during the remaining pre-dawn hours (03:30Z-05:00Z window). The preceding UAV shaping (Odesa, Cherkasy) confirms the intent to maximize AD saturation before the primary high-speed strike. Primary targeting focus remains on Dnipropetrovsk/Kirovohrad logistical nexus and strategic C2 nodes. (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Logistical Strangulation Execution. RF utilizes the current deep UAV penetration in Cherkasy, coupled with potential KAB/100kg Shahed strikes (per previous daily report) to hit a major rear-area logistical node (e.g., rail hub or POL storage) in the Central Axis. Success would severely delay UAF operational sustainment needed for the impending RF artillery surge (260th GRAU). (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements