Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T02:35Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (Ballistic Threat & KAB Expansion)

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAV Strikes on Moscow Escalated (02:07Z, 02:09Z, ASTRA/TASS, HIGH): RF authorities (Moscow Mayor Sobyanin) now claim the interception of a total of fifteen (15) adversarial UAVs targeting the Moscow region. This represents nearly double the volume reported in the previous sitrep (8 claims), confirming a significant and sustained UAF deep strike effort.
• KAB Threat Expanded to Dnipropetrovsk (02:32Z, UAF AF, HIGH): UAF Air Force confirmed the launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) toward the Dnipropetrovsk region. This is a critical geographic expansion of the high-lethality KAB threat, moving the strike envelope beyond frontline support into the UAF central logistical and industrial heartland.
• Persistent UAV Activity Central/North (02:25Z, 02:28Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Active UAV tracks were detected in Western Dnipropetrovsk (near Kryvyi Rih, course North) and Northern Sumy Oblast (toward Shostka). This suggests multi-axis reconnaissance or shaping operations preceding expected ballistic strikes.
• RF Huliaipole Counter-Claim (02:26Z, TASS/RF MoD, LOW): Russian MoD claimed destruction of a UAF robotic complex near Huliaipole. This remains UNCONFIRMED, serving as an IO counter-narrative to persistent UAF control, and does not alter the assessed LOC stability.
• RF Information Operation (02:05Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF channels initiated an IO campaign highlighting infrastructure "revival" in occupied Severodonetsk. This supports the ongoing narrative of RF capability to normalize occupation.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: CRITICAL (Anticipated Ballistic Strike & KAB Expansion)

1. Kinetic Synchronization: The RF is maintaining a high tempo of kinetic activity before the predicted strategic ballistic strike. The purpose is assessed as maximizing UAF AD expenditure and stretching C2 reaction capacity across multiple simultaneous, diverse threats (UAVs, KABs).
2. KAB Threat Expansion (CRITICAL): The use of KABs against the Dnipropetrovsk region is a significant operational development (HIGH confidence). This tactic leverages stand-off distances to bypass immediate frontline AD and target strategic infrastructure (e.g., rail yards, heavy industry) that supports the Eastern Axis operations. This directly supports the MDCOA of logistical strangulation identified in the Daily Report.
3. Command and Control (C2) Stress: The necessity for RF strategic forces to manage 15 simultaneous UAV targets over the capital is highly favorable for UAF. This forces senior RF commanders to prioritize domestic security and diverts high-value AD assets, potentially creating windows of opportunity for UAF air/deep strike operations elsewhere (e.g., exploitation of the Crimean IADS gap).

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF deep strike forces successfully executed a significantly high-volume UAV attack against the RF capital, demonstrating robust operational planning and coordination. The confirmed number of launches forces RF to commit higher levels of AD resources than previously observed, achieving strategic distraction.

UAF Air Defense forces are currently managing concurrent UAV and KAB threats across three primary operational zones (Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and the static frontlines). The immediate requirement is to update engagement protocols to account for the KAB threat in the central rear, focusing on early detection and mitigation of collateral damage.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF IO campaign continues along predictable lines:

1. External Pressure: Narratives attempting to delegitimize Kyiv leadership (previously reported Yermak claims).
2. Internal Legitimacy: Projection of reconstruction and normalization of occupied territories (Severodonetsk).
3. Frontline Denial: Unsubstantiated claims (Huliaipole robot destruction) designed to counter perceived UAF stability in contested sectors and manage domestic expectations regarding ground defense capability.

The increased volume of the Moscow UAV strikes provides a significant advantage in the cognitive domain for UAF, emphasizing the strategic vulnerability of the RF state.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Strategic Strike Peak Coincidence (03:00Z-05:00Z). The RF will execute the strategic deep ballistic launch during the pre-dawn hours, utilizing the recent KAB/UAV strikes to achieve target saturation and minimize UAF AD reaction time. The timing remains aligned with previous analysis, aiming to maximize disruption before dawn. KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk logistics are likely to persist during this window.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Logistical Strangulation Pre-Positioning. RF integrates the confirmed KAB expansion into Dnipropetrovsk with the new 100kg Shahed variant (Daily Report) to specifically target the Dnipropetrovsk rail nexus and associated POL (Petroleum, Oil, Lubricants) storage. A successful strike package isolating the Eastern Grouping of Forces from central resupply ahead of the 260th GRAU artillery surge (expected 24-48h) would critically compromise UAF operational freedom.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements