Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-14T17:40Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Foreign Recruitment Expansion (17:12Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Russia's recruitment efforts are confirmed to have expanded geographically, utilizing Telegram channels to actively target and recruit mercenaries in Iran. This suggests sustained strategic pressure to source high-attrition personnel globally.
• Continued Multi-Axis UAV Activity (17:23Z, 17:36Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): New UAV tracks were identified heading towards Kharkiv and Tatabunary (Odesa Oblast). The Tatabunary track confirms persistent RF intent to strike GLOCs or critical infrastructure in the deep southern Odesa area.
• UAF Southern Force Sustainment (17:23Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Significant delivery of military equipment to UAF defense units on the Zaporizhzhia front was confirmed, indicating successful resupply and force generation efforts in a contested operational sector.
• High-Level Diplomatic Coordination (17:15Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy conducted a phone conversation with President Macron immediately prior to meeting with the US political delegation in Germany, demonstrating proactive allied coordination ahead of sensitive foreign policy engagements.
• RF IO Focus on Maritime Strikes (17:34Z, Kotsnews, HIGH): Pro-Russian sources publicly acknowledged and gauged domestic support (55% satisfaction) for a recent strike against civilian shipping in Odesa, confirming an information objective to amplify the threat to international commercial transport.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Threat Assessment (CRITICAL): The operational tempo remains high in the kinetic domain. The confirmed UAV tracks over Kharkiv and Odesa (Tatabunary) align with the established RF MLCOA of complex air attacks targeting deep rear areas. The targeting of Tatabunary, a key hub for southern Odesa, suggests a focused effort to disrupt the logistical and energy transmission nodes adjacent to the Danube corridor.

Force Generation (ELEVATED CONCERN): RF is aggressively diversifying its force generation pool. The confirmed recruitment initiative targeting citizens in Iran (17:12Z) is a new vector, complementing the ongoing internal recruitment surge in Moscow Oblast (per previous sitrep). This strategy indicates a sustained, long-term requirement for readily deployable contract personnel, likely to fill losses in highly attritional assault roles.

Logistics and Sustainment: RF utilizes non-governmental organizations (MOO "VECHE") for troop sustainment, indicating a layered logistics system to ensure immediate needs (warm clothes, camo nets) are met at the unit level, minimizing reliance on slower MoD channels. The most critical unknown remains the vector of the materials departing the 260th GRAU.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF activity is characterized by robust resilience and successful diplomatic positioning. The reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front provides necessary tactical depth against anticipated RF attacks. Furthermore, the pre-meeting coordination between Zelenskyy and Macron ensures that Ukraine presents a coordinated front to key US political stakeholders, mitigating the risk of policy divergence or misinterpretation regarding future aid commitments.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO is successfully framing tactical kinetic victories (maritime strikes) for domestic consumption, reinforcing a narrative of aggressive and effective action (17:34Z). Simultaneously, RF seeks to sow discord in the NATO alliance by amplifying voices of non-escalation (Salvini, 17:18Z) and reporting on perceived NATO internal logistical vulnerabilities (Turkey bypass). The strategic objective is to create cognitive strain on Western decision-makers regarding escalation thresholds and long-term commitment consistency.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Sustained Air Pressure on Critical Infrastructure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will continue focused, high-volume UAV attacks targeting the Odesa and Kharkiv operational areas through the night (until 00:00Z). The immediate objective is to maximize the stress on UAF AD resources and ensure the maximum possible impact of the national scheduled power outages already planned for 15 December.

MDCOA (Ground Attack Preceded by Information Shaping): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF ground forces will attempt to leverage the upcoming surge in artillery saturation (from the 260th GRAU, projected 24-48h) to enable a localized penetration effort in the Pokrovsk sector. Concurrently, IO will increase propaganda regarding potential UAF force exhaustion to mask pre-attack maneuvers.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements