Sitrep 2025-12-14 15:11:14

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-14T17:00Z Focus: Confirmation of RF Economic Targeting in the Rear and UAF Strategic Force Expansion

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF Force Generation (15:09Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The 78th Separate Airborne Assault Regiment (DShP) is confirmed to be expanding its structure to a full Brigade level. This is a significant strategic development, increasing UAF high-readiness maneuver capacity.
RF Targeting Confirmed (Zaporizhzhia) (15:03Z, Zaporizhzhia RMA, HIGH): Recent RF strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast were confirmed to have targeted "business" and economic infrastructure, reinforcing the strategic goal of undermining UAF economic stability in the deep rear.
UNCONFIRMED RF Logistics Strike Claim (15:02Z, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, LOW): An RF source claimed a successful strike resulting in logistics disruption, aligning with the observed RF effort to interdict UAF supply lines. (Confidence LOW as details/location are absent).
RF IO/Cyber Warning (15:00Z, Старше Эдды, LOW): A prominent RF source warned of potential instability in Telegram operations, suggesting either planned Communication Network Operations (CNO) or psychological preparation for disruption.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Status Change	Confidence	Assessment
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Deep Rear)	SHIFT IN TARGET TYPE	HIGH	RF air assets (KAB/Missile) are demonstrably prioritizing economic and civilian infrastructure ("business") in addition to military logistics, indicating a deliberate strategy to degrade internal Ukrainian resilience and funding.
Eastern Axis (Force Structure)	INCREASED UAF CAPACITY	HIGH	The upgrade of the 78th DShP to a brigade level signals a readiness to commit significant, newly constituted, high-mobility forces to operational reserves or future counter-offensive tasks.
Information Environment	INCREASED CNO/IO RISK	MEDIUM	RF sources are actively signaling potential communication network interference (Telegram), which may precede tactical operations requiring UAF C2 degradation. (DS belief 0.173 for Communication Network Disruption).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: HIGH (Kinetic Interdiction combined with Escalated IO/Cyber Signaling)

Air/Missile Targeting (Zaporizhzhia): The confirmation of strikes against economic infrastructure confirms the RF operational focus on strategic paralyzation beyond mere attrition. This expands the list of vulnerable critical national infrastructure (CNI) assets.
Hybrid/CNO Threat: The public warning regarding Telegram instability (Старше Эдды) is assessed as either:
- MLCOA: Preparatory IO to encourage movement to RF-controlled platforms.
- MDCOA: Pre-attack signaling for an imminent, focused Electronic Warfare (EW) or Cyber Network Operation (CNO) strike aimed at paralyzing UAF tactical communications during a critical phase (e.g., coinciding with the 260th GRAU surge).
Logistics Sustainment: The UNCONFIRMED RF strike claim, supported by the DS assessment of probable logistical shifts (0.277), indicates that interdiction of UAF supplies remains the primary short-term kinetic objective, complementing the deep KAB strikes.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Force Posture and Readiness: The official expansion of the 78th DShP to a full brigade structure represents a successful strategic effort to reconstitute and expand elite maneuver forces. This unit is expected to enter the strategic reserve or reinforce a critical operational boundary once fully manned and equipped.
Information Operations (IO): Regional military administrations (RMA) are effectively integrating strike reporting with political messaging (advocating for specific economic policies), maintaining narrative control and linking operational resilience to policy needs.

Information environment / disinformation

RF Strategic Distraction: TASS reporting on the survival of the lion Neo after a strike in Zaporizhzhia is a clear Russian state media tactic (DS belief 0.076) intended to distract from confirmed damage to civilian/economic targets and minimize the perceived severity of kinetic action by focusing on non-human welfare.
C2 System Preparation: The warning of potential Telegram instability mandates immediate defensive measures against potential RF CNO/EW activity, which may seek to capitalize on the communication reliance of mobile fire teams and ground coordination elements.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Kinetic & Economic Pressure Sustainment): RF forces will maintain the expanded KAB/Missile strike pattern against economic infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro Oblasts to impose costs and divert AD assets. Ground action will remain localized, awaiting the confirmed high-volume delivery of munitions from the 260th GRAU arsenal (expected 24-48h window). (Confidence: HIGH)

MDCOA (Coordinated CNO/Kinetic Strike): Following the RF warning, the most dangerous course of action involves a synchronized CNO/EW campaign targeting key digital communication platforms (like Telegram) and UAF field radio networks, immediately preceding the arrival and commencement of saturation fires stemming from the 260th GRAU reactivation. This combination is designed to neutralize UAF ability to coordinate response or reposition maneuver units. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Current Status / Impact	Collection Recommendation
P1 (CRITICAL)	RF Post-Loss Maneuver (Pokrovsk).	No indication if RF is preparing a third mechanized wave, or shifting operational effort (e.g., to Avdiivka flank) following two high-value losses.	Task Tactical ISR (UAV/EW) for immediate monitoring of RF staging areas NE of Pokrovsk (towards Hryshyne) and Avdiivka northern flank for new troop concentrations.
P2 (CRITICAL)	260th GRAU Vector Confirmation.	CRITICAL activity spike observed. Is material departing and specifically which front (East or South) will receive the bulk of the expected surge.	Task SIGINT/HUMINT/Orbital assets to track rolling stock movement exiting the 260th arsenal; focus on rail lines toward Volnovakha (East) vs. further South/SW.
P3 (URGENT)	RF CNO/EW Intent (Telegram/C2).	RF signaling potential communications instability. Intent and capacity to execute widespread digital communications jamming/disruption are unknown.	Task CYBERCOM/EW assets to monitor RF digital infrastructure and high-frequency spectrum for indicators of preparatory network attacks or mass jamming deployment.
P4 (URGENT)	78th Brigade Readiness & Location.	The new brigade status changes UAF force dispositions. Readiness status (equipment, training level, mobilization percentage) and planned deployment theater are unknown.	Task HUMINT/OSINT to determine projected operational readiness date (ORD) and identify potential initial deployment sector (e.g., Strategic Reserve or immediate operational boundary reinforcement).
P5 (PRIORITY)	Huliaipole Breakthrough Verification.	Unverified RF claims persist (P3 previous gap). Distraction risk remains high and confirmation of LOC stability is necessary.	Re-task IMINT/MALE UAV assets to the Huliaipole sector for definitive force disposition and evidence of breakthrough/consolidation.

Situation Report