DTG: 2025-12-14T16:00Z
Focus: Sustained RF Pressure on Pokrovsk Axis and Deep KAB Threat Expansion
Key updates since last sitrep
Confirmed UAF Success near Pokrovsk (14:44Z, DeepState, HIGH): The UAF 7th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (7 KShDV) successfully destroyed an RF mechanized column attempting to advance from Pokrovsk towards Hryshyne, exploiting poor visibility conditions (fog). This validates UAF control over the immediate line of contact.
KAB Launches on Zaporizhzhia (14:54Z, Air Force, HIGH): RF forces executed stand-off Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This confirms the ongoing geographic expansion of the deep air threat, extending well behind the immediate contact line.
High-Level Diplomatic Meeting Initiated (14:56Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy commenced a meeting with US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner in Berlin. This suggests continued high-level bilateral engagement regarding ongoing support and strategic planning.
Belarusian Opposition Confirmed in Kyiv (14:48Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Belarusian opposition figures released via the recent GUR/US facilitated prisoner exchange are holding a press conference in Kyiv, publicly validating the intelligence/diplomatic success.
Tactical Scout Success (14:51Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): UAF 92nd Separate Assault Brigade reconnaissance teams successfully engaged and neutralized an RF soldier group during a close-quarters area clearance operation, demonstrating UAF tactical initiative.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sector
Status Change
Confidence
Assessment
Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk)
HIGHLY CONTESTED / DENIED ADVANCE
HIGH
RF forces continue to commit mechanized assets to achieve a breakthrough toward Hryshyne, despite previous losses (Skelya 425) and heavy losses sustained in the latest engagement (7 KShDV). UAF tactical defense remains effective.
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Deep Rear)
INCREASED KAB RISK
HIGH
The confirmation of KAB strikes into Zaporizhzhia Oblast reinforces the assessment that the RF is prioritizing the interdiction of rear area logistics and infrastructure over immediate tactical ground gains in the sector.
Air Domain
PERSISTENT KAB EXPANSION
HIGH
RF glide bomb utilization now demonstrably threatens key logistical nodes further west than previously tracked, demanding immediate recalibration of mobile AD asset distribution along the operational boundary.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Threat Level: HIGH (Focused on Air Interdiction and Mechanized Fixation)
Ground Maneuver (Donetsk): RF forces are sustaining unacceptable losses (mechanized column destroyed near Pokrovsk) in repeated attempts to breach the line toward Hryshyne. This indicates high operational urgency to achieve a territorial objective, regardless of materiel cost. The exploitation of low visibility (fog) suggests local commanders are utilizing weather conditions to mask high-risk maneuvers.
Air Threat (KAB): The targeting of Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirms the shift from localized front-line CAS (Close Air Support) to an operational interdiction role for KABs. This directly threatens the stability of GLOCs running into the Donbas theater from central Ukraine.
Command and Control / Logistics: RF operational sequencing remains slow, as evidenced by the failure of the predicted 260th GRAU barrage and the continued use of vulnerable, exposed columns at Pokrovsk. This points to possible friction in logistics or synchronization between air and ground assets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Successful Defensive Actions: The confirmed destruction of the RF column near Pokrovsk by 7 KShDV is a critical defensive success, immediately stabilizing the most threatened axis and neutralizing RF attempts to exploit tactical uncertainty.
Intelligence/Diplomatic Gains: The public presentation of the released Belarusian opposition figures maximizes the propaganda value of the GUR/US intelligence/diplomatic victory, signaling effective engagement across the border domain.
Logistical Constraints (Sustainment): Persistent logistical frustrations within UAF ranks regarding vehicle repair and poor infrastructure in the Donbas (14:47Z, Шеф Hayabusa) remain a constraint on rapid maneuver and operational readiness, despite successful enemy logistics interdiction (previous sitrep).
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Signaling: Ukraine is effectively leveraging high-level diplomatic meetings (Zelenskyy/US negotiators) and prisoner release success to project stability and international support, directly countering RF narratives of Ukrainian isolation. (DS belief score 0.365 for Agreement on Bilateral Support).
RF Domestic Normalization: RF media (Moscow Oblast) is prioritizing messages of domestic normalcy (winter holiday preparation), aiming to distance the population from the war effort and minimize psychological impact.
Internal RF Frictions: Reports detailing corruption and abuse of power by high-ranking Russian officials (14:48Z, Север.Реалии) suggest cracks in internal governmental legitimacy, potentially eroding domestic morale outside of the immediate war zone.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Aggressive KAB Retaliation & Continued Probes): Following the significant materiel loss at Pokrovsk and the successful UAF deep strikes (Crimea AD), RF forces will likely intensify KAB strikes, focusing on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro logistics to impose costs and divert AD assets. Ground action will continue to probe the Pokrovsk-Hryshyne axis, utilizing any remaining periods of low visibility (fog/night) to attempt flanking movements.
(Confidence: HIGH)
MDCOA (Air/Ground Synchronization Failure): Due to friction between ground command (requiring high-cost, high-loss mechanized probes) and the delayed/disrupted fires (260th GRAU), RF forces may fail to synchronize the KAB saturation with a subsequent ground push. This MDCOA entails localized, uncoordinated attacks leading to further heavy RF materiel losses without significant operational gain.
(Confidence: MEDIUM)
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Priority
Gap Description
Current Status / Impact
Collection Recommendation
P1 (CRITICAL)
RF Post-Loss Maneuver (Pokrovsk).
Two high-value RF columns interdicted in 48 hours. Is RF preparing a third wave, or shifting operational effort (e.g., to Avdiivka flank)?
Task Tactical ISR (UAV/EW) for immediate monitoring of RF staging areas NE of Pokrovsk (towards Hryshyne) for new troop concentrations or withdrawal indicators.
KAB threat confirmed targeting the Zaporizhzhia rear. Specific launch airfields and flight corridors remain unconfirmed.
Task SIGINT/ELINT to identify specific RF tactical aviation activity (Su-34/Su-35) matching the KAB launch signature toward the SW/South-Central sector.
Re-task IMINT/MALE UAV assets to the Huliaipole sector for definitive force disposition and evidence of breakthrough/consolidation.
P4 (PRIORITY)
Outcome of Berlin Meeting (Zelenskyy/US).
High-level meeting underway; outcome will dictate bilateral support trajectory.
Task HUMINT/OSINT collection focused on post-meeting press releases and diplomatic readouts to assess the nature and scope of newly committed security assistance (e.g., ATACMS, F-16 timeline).
